Week 1 saw the ACC hold serve in the most important games. Pittsburgh was able to pull away from Murray State to win by 15. Wake Forest slugged out a win against Michigan by two. North Carolina fought hard but lost a close game at #1 Kansas by three points. Louisville could be seen as a disappointment because of the margin of victory, but they were not expected to win by many. In hindsight, Boston College never should have been on the list for week one against VCU, since the Rams clearly had a much better roster than BC. Nevertheless, week two heats up with several power conference matchups for the ACC. Let’s look at the 5 important games for the ACC in week two.
5 Important Games for the ACC in Week 2
What are the Criteria for the 5 Important Games?
At the end of the day, one thing matters most in college basketball: national championships. There is only one way to win a national championship: make the NCAA tournament. Each game selected in this series every week will have NCAA Tournament implications in some way. I see three major ways a game can have NCAA tournament implications.
- Seeding: Top teams in the ACC, like Duke and North Carolina, should have no problems qualifying for the NCAA Tournament. However, conference prestige will rise if they are able to win important games and garner national respect in battles to be a top seed.
- Bubble: There are several ACC teams every single season who find themselves on the bubble going into Selection Sunday. Teams that find themselves on the bubble need to win some key games and avoid bad losses.
- Middle-to-lower Tier matchups: This one flies under the radar, but holds a lot of significance for the non-conference in particular. Based on my power rankings for the ACC, there are teams who will finish middle of the pack in the ACC who have games against other power conference opponents. Raising the number of bids in a conference relies on these teams placed in the middle third of the rankings to beat opponents from the same tier in opposing conferences. The ACC has struggled to get bids, but these games will raise that number if they result in wins.
5. SMU @ Butler: 11/15 at 7:00 p.m. ET
SMU has very few opportunities to prove themselves before ACC play begins, but this qualifies as one of them. Butler has a good history, but hasn’t had much success in recent seasons. Both of these teams are projected to finish in the middle portion of their respective conferences. The Mustangs have won 3 games win relative ease to start the season. Kevin “Boopie” Miller is playing like someone who could earn himself consideration for conference player of the year. The competition hasn’t been incredible, but averaging 20/7/5 is very good against any competition.
I don’t expect SMU to create a ton of noise in the ACC like they’re currently doing in football, but they will be the best addition to the conference. This represents a must-win for them if they hope to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid because of their weak non-conference schedule. The ACC is banking on their relative success this season. These are the types of games the ACC needs to win regularly if they are to receive national recognition come March.
4. Clemson @ Boise State: 11/17 at 1:30 p.m. ET
Clemson is off to a good start, but they get their first big test on Sunday against a Boise State team that continues to make noise in the Mountain West. Boise State has made each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, but they already lost to San Fransisco this season. They will be eager to try and get a non-conference win to boost their own NCAA Tournament resume.
For Clemson, their non-conference schedule has several matchups that give them the opportunity to get a quality win. But the first big game always means a little bit more. Boise State went 11-3 at home last season and will undoubtedly rank high enough to be a Quad-1 victory for Clemson by the end of the season. Look for Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin to bring strong veteran performances to carry the Tigers to a key road win.
Clemson is a projected NCAA Tournament team, so it is important for the ACC to win games like this if they hope to have more than five or six bids in the next Big Dance. The Mountain West earned six bids last season, so the ACC would love to put one of their top contenders down in November. Expect Clemson to be a frequent flyer in the 5 Important Games series as the season progresses.
3. Virginia vs. Villanova (neutral): 11/15 at 5:00 p.m. ET
Virginia is a new addition to the 5 Important Games for the ACC in week two. Virginia has passed both of their tests (more like quizzes) early in the season. Villanova is always a strong name for the Big East, but they have already dropped a game to Columbia. We have another battle between two teams projected to be in the middle of their conferences.
Virginia looks exactly like they always did under Tony Bennett. They can stop any team in the country, but they can’t score. They will be in most games throughout the season and will compete at a national level if they can discover some scoring. The biggest red flag for a team that plays such slow-paced games is the amount of turnovers. They have 94 shot attempts and 23 turnovers. To put that into perspective, it’s a ratio of 4.09 shot attempts/turnover. Duke has 40 more shot attempts and 2 fewer turnovers, for a ratio of 6.38 shot attempts/turnover. Pitt has a ratio of 7.08. North Carolina has a ratio of 8.41. They’re closer to Boston College (3.61) than Duke, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina.
Nobody is expecting Virginia to score like Duke or North Carolina, but turning the ball over at such a high rate will lead to results like Boston College, not Duke. Their defense will keep them in the game, but the best way to get an easy basket against Virginia is when they commit turnovers. They cannot turn the ball over at such a high rate if they hope to compete nationally.
2. Wake Forest @ Xavier: 11/16 at 12:00 p.m. ET
The Demon Deacons played well last season and hold the best win in the ACC so far this season. They have another opportunity to win a big game on the road against one of the top contenders in the Big East. Xavier will almost assuredly make the NCAA Tournament this season.
Unlike most teams, Wake Forest still has several power conference games remaining on their schedule to boost their resume. However, you can never win enough games against good teams. Wake Forest isn’t desperate for this win, so they may come out flat on the road. Hunter Sallis has shot very poorly from the field and only 9% from three. He will need to be much better if Wake Forest wants to beat the Musketeers, who average 86 points per game.
The ACC needs Wake Forest to come out on top again in their 5 Important Games matchup. A top-level ACC team needs to beat a top-level power conference opponent. That is a key factor for the ACC to receive more bids. Just ask Wake Forest: they were one of the teams who narrowly missed a tournament bid themselves last season.
1. 6 Duke vs. 19 Kentucky (neutral): 11/12 at 9:00 p.m. ET
For the second week in a row, the most important game for the ACC is obvious. A matchup between two perennial powerhouses of college basketball will always find itself on the list. When both teams are in the top 20, it will often find itself at the top. Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel are off to solid starts, but Kentucky represents the first true test for the young freshmen. Kentucky may have lost John Calipari, but they are still a blue blood. The Wildcats have scored more than 100 points in each of their first two games with Mark Pope at the helm. This will be a high-scoring affair as both teams look to prove themselves in the second week of the season.
Neither team needs this win, as both have many chances in the non-conference for a high-quality win. However, for Duke, the first chance to show the nation what these two freshmen can do shouldn’t be taken lightly. This is a statement game for the Blue Devils: win and immediately validate your national attention, lose and look forward on the schedule to find that first key win. It’s always better to get it early.
If the ACC wants to return to former glory, Duke needs to beat Kentucky and other teams like them. North Carolina was excused for their tough loss against Kansas on the road. Duke is favored in this game and expects to win. The excuses will not be there. Whether Cooper Flagg cramps or not, this team has too much riding on the season to lay an early-season egg.
