As expected, the Rockets are starting the same lineup as last season. Given the breakout of one player on their bench, should they be though? Compounding the issue is the comparative lack of growth exhibited by one starter in roughly the same position.
Should The Rockets Bench This Prominent Starter?
Despite missing veteran leader Fred VanVleet, the Rockets never trailed against the Washington Wizards in their last game. Even so, starting power forward Jabari Smith Jr. did little to dispel the allure of replacing him in the starting lineup. So far on the season, Smith is shooting just 25.0% from three and 39.3% from the field. Against the Wizards, he shot 2-10 from the field (though he did make a season-high six free throws).
Of the starters, he also had by far the lowest plus/minus. That was mainly because he wasn’t on the floor while the Rockets closed out the game in the fourth. Who was out there with the starters in his place? Breakout third-year sensation Tari Eason. He is averaging 11.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game.
Eason’s Revenge Tour
Eason may be one of the least heralded of Houston’s young prospects, partly because he’s the oldest (at 23), but he has returned from last season’s injury hiatus with a vengeance. He’s been steadily playing his way into more minutes every game. Eason’s energy was raved about by championship-level energy specialist Draymond Green. He rebounds, plays sensational defense, and is even making three-pointers at a decent rate so far – 38.7%. With Smith struggling and Eason surging, an adjustment to the Rockets’ starting lineup does seem logical. But the Rockets benching Smith to make Eason a starter could be a mistake. Smith, selected third in the 2022 draft, is still a promising young player with upside. His issues seem to be partly confidence-based, benching him could risk making those issues worse.
Meanwhile, Eason, selected 17th in the same draft, has demonstrated that he’s perfectly content to come off the bench and contribute to winning basketball. The Rockets should capitalize on that. If, in the meantime, Eason’s minutes as a sixth man happen to rise above Smith’s as a starter, then so be it. While Eason’s Box Plus/Minus is at 7.8 compared with Smith’s at -2.1, that should be happening. Notably, at the time of writing, Eason leads the league in Defensive Box Plus/Minus at 4.1.
In that situation, Smith can still feel like if he plays well enough, he can earn more minutes. It should encourage him to start games aggressively. If he’s shooting well, defending well, and making winning plays, then it would benefit the team to keep him on the floor longer. If he’s not, then head coach Ime Udoka can let Eason run rampage in his place.
The Tactical Case For Smith Over Eason
The justification for starting an arguably worse player over an arguably better one doesn’t have to be draft or sentiment-based either. The 6-foot-10 Smith is unequivocally a power forward. 6-foot-8 Eason can certainly play power forward, but the best version of him would be viable at small forward.
The modern NBA is such that actual power forwards are a rare commodity. Most players who are too small to play the five and too slow or not good enough shooters to play the three are just hard to find space for on the floor nowadays. Even star power forwards like two-time All-NBA player Julius Randle can be awkward fits. Smith may not be as impactful as Eason, but he isn’t an awkward fit.
As a complimentary piece, Smith fits well alongside the creators in the starting lineup. Or at least he will do once his threes start finding the net again. Smith hasn’t established himself as a marksman at the NBA level by any means, but just being willing to take three-pointers has value assuming his percentage climbs back to around last year’s 36.3. The Rockets should let Smith be a three-and-D starter at a position where that skillset typically demands a size sacrifice, and let Eason play a more dynamic role off the bench.
The Last Word
It’s unlikely a 2023-24 Rockets starter will come off the bench this season. The way Smith and Eason are playing right now, though, Smith might wind up as the fifth starter on a team that routinely closes with their sixth man instead. If Eason needs any more incentive to play that role, which seems unlikely, the Sixth Man of the Year Award might not be the worst thing to look at. It’s much more likely that Eason just wants to wreak havoc and win basketball games. That is, do what he’s good at.
