After the team took Collin Sexton out of the the first unit, starting Jordan Clarkson in his place, Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy was asked a tough question: Why bench your most productive and efficient guard? One who also happens to have just turned 25 years old, and would seem to fit their timeline?
“Yeah, we’re trying to make the two groups function a little bit better, and we can do that without impacting minutes too much, impacting opportunity too much,” Hardy says, per The Salt Lake Tribune’s Andy Larsen. “You know, I believe in Collin. Collin knows that this has nothing to do with his play. It’s about what makes the two groups function the best.”
“And Collin’s great. He understands he wants the team to do well. He’s always done anything and everything that I’ve asked from a role standpoint, and so it’s my responsibility that, if he is going to be accepting of those things, to continue to try to think about him and put him in a position to be successful.”
“But nothing with our team right now is set in stone,” Hardy continues. “I had a conversation with Collin before the game about wanting to try something different to see if we could find a little bit of a rhythm offensively.”
Do Jazz Head Coach’s Will Hardy Words Match Actions?
Based on Hardy’s comments, it’s reasonable to conclude that his focus is the success of Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen.
George and Sexton’s chemistry has been off from the beginning, for reasons yet unknown. Meanwhile, George is incredibly fond of Clarkson, who has become his mentor.
In the case of Markkanen, it’s become evident that he’s more comfortable playing alongside Clarkson than Sexton as well. This is largely reflected in his body language. Perhaps there’s a quiet power struggle, with Markkanen’s opportunities seemingly limited by Sexton’s shot attempts.
If that’s the case, it makes sense to demote Sexton and promote Clarkson to the starting lineup. Instead of a tug-of-war, the Jazz’s top options in the first unit would work in concert with one another. Reducing the friction could also allow Utah to get into their offense sooner.
Men Lie, Women Lie, Numbers Don’t
Statistically speaking, the move makes little sense.
For starters, Sexton was in three of the Jazz’s top five lineups last season, per Basketball Reference. In fact, he was featured in their top two lineups, whereas neither George nor Clarkson were.
When Sexton played alongside Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Kris Dunn, and Simone Fontecchio, the Jazz outscored opponents by +29.1 points per 100 possessions. When Sexton played alongside Kessler, Ochai Agbaji, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Kelly Olynyk, they outscored opponents by +19.6 points per 100 possessions.
The lineup featuring George, Clarkson, Markkanen, Olynyk, and John Collins outscored opponents by +16.7 points per 100 possessions. Then, when Sexton shared the court with George, Clarkson, Markkanen and Collins, they outscored opponents by +11.2 points per 100 possessions.
Notably, Sexton is the only player out of Clarkson, George, and Markkanen to have record a positive net-rating in five-man lineup that featured Kessler.
This season, there none of the five-man lineups that combine George, Markkanen, and Kessler are in their top-five. However, the five-man group of George, Markkanen, Clarkson, Collins and Drew Eubanks is outscoring opponents by +20.0 points per 100 possessions. Replace Eubanks with Brice Sensabaugh and they’re outscoring opponents by +16.7 points per 100 possessions.
That would seem to lend credence to Hardy’s rotation change. Yet, if he was seriously trying to find the best five-man unit to start the game, Collins wouldn’t be coming off the bench. That’s evident in the fact that Collins also has a more mature game when in the first unit, playing off of others more than calling his own number.
Wait… Why Isn’t John Collins Starting?
Just like with Kessler, Sexton has developed a lot of chemistry with Collins. That could help Collins perform better in the second unit. However, in a vacuum, it doesn’t answer the question about why he isn’t starting.
That is, unless one takes it all back to Hardy prioritizing Markkanen. Markkanen can’t be relied on to stop the opponent’s best wing or forward, so Taylor Hendricks was their defensive specialist. With Hendricks out, that role has now gone to Cody Williams. Starting Collins over Williams (or Hendricks) when he doesn’t have the best lateral movement compromises the defense, especially with Kessler also starting.
Is It The Bottom Line Winning Or Agendas?
The only question is if should Sexton continue coming off the bench when he’s been one of the team’s top-two players since last season?
Looking at George and Clarkson’s individual numbers, there’s no question that one or both of them should be coming off the bench. Dating back to his days at Baylor, George has made under 40 percent of his field goals and 34 percent of his threes in every season. Clarkson has made under 42 percent of his field goals and 30 percent of his threes over the past two seasons.
Meanwhile, Sexton has converted at least 45 percent of his field goals in each of the past six seasons. He’s made over 37 percent of his threes in all but two seasons. This while having a higher career scoring average (18.8) than Clarkson (16.0) or George (13.0) and making strides as a facilitator.
Numbers aside, Sexton is a more diverse scorer than either Clarkson or George. He’s more physical. Though Clarkson and George’s shooting strokes look more natural, he is more precise.
For all of Hardy’s talk about teams not rolling out the red carpet for anybody, the Jazz sure seem to think that George and Clarkson are the beaus of the ball. The crazy part about it is that they’re not even the best guards on the team. That being said, the shrewdest decision would be to demote George and Clarkson to the second unit, not Sexton.
Johnny Ju-Rang?
Hendricks’s injury complicate matters.
If they’re already starting Williams in his place, he can’t man a backcourt spot unless Collins starts. Sensabaugh is an intriguing option, but he’s a bit of a ball-stopper. That could leave 6-foot-7 sharpshooter Johnny Juzang as the most feasible option to start alongside Sexton.
