WNBA action on Monday evening, and we will see the Seattle Storm battle the Las Vegas Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup. Seattle is now 0-3 in the Cup after an 88-68 loss at Minnesota, while going just 3-9 overall. Las Vegas is off an 84-79 home win over Golden State to move to 2-0 in Cup play and 7-3 overall. Will the Storm get their first win in the Cup? Can the Aces stay perfect in Cup play? Read on to see my Storm vs Aces prediction.
Storm vs Aces: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Current Odds
Las Vegas -14.5: Over/Under 162
Seattle Storm
Seattle enters this Commissioner’s Cup matchup searching for answers after a blowout loss to Minnesota, their fifth straight defeat. The Storm’s offense has stalled during this slide. They’ve averaged only 65.6 points per game over the last five, and their shooting numbers continue to lag behind league averages. Natisha Hiedeman scored 14 points against Minnesota, while Flau’jae Johnson added 10, but Seattle never found rhythm. Their 1-5 road record adds another challenge as they try to regain stability.
Defensively, Seattle has struggled to contain opponents. The Storm allowed the Lynx to shoot 48 percent and gave up 37 made field goals, including several clean looks in transition. They have also surrendered 81.8 points per game this season, and opponents shoot 41.8 percent from the field. Rebounding has also been an issue, as they give up 37.2 boards per game and often lose second‑chance battles. Their defensive rotations have been inconsistent, and foul trouble has created additional problems. Seattle must tighten its interior coverage to avoid another uphill battle.
Offensively, the Storm need more efficiency. They average 75.0 points per game and shoot just 39.8 percent from the field, ranking near the bottom of the league. Hiedeman leads the team at 13.5 points per game, while Johnson adds 11.5, but both have faced heavy defensive pressure. Jade Melbourne has provided a spark with 9.9 points per game, yet Seattle’s three‑point accuracy sits at only 31.6 percent. The Storm’s best stretches come when they push tempo and avoid half‑court stagnation. They need cleaner possessions to stay competitive against a strong Las Vegas defense.
For Seattle to stay in this game, it must limit turnovers and generate early offense before Las Vegas sets its defense. The Storm’s shooting must improve, and they need more consistent production from their frontcourt to avoid long scoring droughts. Defensively, they must contest perimeter shots and keep A’ja Wilson from dominating inside. Seattle has the athleticism to compete, but it needs a sharper, more connected performance to avoid falling deeper into its slump.
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas enters this matchup with momentum after a win over Golden State. The Aces have won three straight and continue to rely on strong scoring from Wilson and Jackie Young. Wilson delivered 28 points and 14 rebounds in the win, while Young added 27 with six threes. Chelsea Gray contributed 12 points and six assists as Las Vegas controlled key stretches late. Despite their strong record, the Aces are only 1–2 at home and will look to build consistency on their own floor.
Defensively, Las Vegas has been solid. It held Golden State to 39 percent shooting and forced 11 turnovers, including several in the fourth quarter. The Aces allow 84.9 points per game and opponents shoot just 40.9 percent from the field. Their perimeter defense has improved, and their rebounding has been strong at 37.2 boards per game. Wilson anchors the interior, while Young and Gray provide steady pressure on the perimeter. Las Vegas has the tools to disrupt Seattle’s struggling offense and control tempo early.
Offensively, the Aces remain one of the league’s most efficient teams. They average 89.1 points per game and shoot 48.1 percent from the field, ranking near the top of the WNBA. Wilson leads the team at 25.1 points per game, while Young adds 13.7 with strong perimeter shooting. Gray continues to orchestrate the offense at 7.1 assists per game. NaLyssa Smith has also provided efficient scoring inside. Las Vegas moves the ball well and creates high‑percentage looks, especially in transition and early‑clock situations.
For Las Vegas to extend its winning streak, it must maintain defensive pressure and avoid the slow starts that have appeared in recent home games. The Aces’ offense should generate clean looks against the Storm’s inconsistent defense, but they need to control the glass and limit second‑chance points. If the Aces dictate pace and keep turnovers low, they’ll be in strong position to stay unbeaten in Cup play and continue climbing the standings.
Storm vs Aces Predictions
Las Vegas –14.5 lines up because this matchup tilts heavily toward pace control and scoring efficiency, and Seattle simply hasn’t kept games competitive during this slide. The Storm have been outscored by 21.3 points per game in their last three road contests, and their offense has struggled to generate anything early or late. Las Vegas has won three straight and continues to create separation with quick scoring bursts, especially when it dictates tempo. With the Storm’s offense sputtering and their road form collapsing, the Aces have a clear path to building a margin that extends beyond the number.
The Under 162 also fits the way Seattle games have trended. The Storm have averaged only 65.6 points per game during their five‑game losing streak, and those matchups have produced just 147.6 total points on average. Their pace slows dramatically when they fall behind, and their shooting numbers rarely recover once the game becomes half‑court heavy. Las Vegas can score, but they’ve also played several slower games at home, and their defense has tightened during this winning stretch. With Seattle struggling to reach even modest totals, the ceiling on this matchup remains limited.
The combination of Las Vegas’ ability to control tempo and Seattle’s offensive droughts makes the Aces‑and‑Under pairing a natural fit. The Aces should create early separation, and the Storm’s recent scoring profile suggests they won’t keep pace long enough to push the total upward. If the Storm continue to lean on slower possessions and the Aces maintain defensive pressure, this matchup projects to stay well below the posted number while still giving the Aces room to cover comfortably.
Final Predictions: Las Vegas -14.5 & Under 162
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