It’s an open-kept secret that Milwaukee Bucks incumbent captain Giannis Antetokounmpo is the big fish in the trade pond this offseason. Itching to get back to the NBA Finals stage after winning it all in 2021, Antetokounmpo’s publicly declared his desire to play for a more competitive team than he has been, albeit with the caveat he’d actually prefer to remain with the Bucks. However, Antetokounmpo can obviously only play for one organization (at a time, anyways). As a result, any other franchise that was looking for a star upgrade has to have an alternative plan. In that effort, many of those teams will be closely monitoring Kawhi Leonard‘s status with the Los Angeles Clippers.
Do The Rockets Need An All-In Kawhi Leonard Trade?
The Houston Rockets have been left with more questions than answers after Kevin Durant‘s return to Texas.
When they traded for the future first ballot Hall of Famer, sending the Phoenix Suns in exchange for a package headlined by Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and the lottery pick that would become Khaman Maluach, the expectation was that Durant’s experience and superior scoring ability would elevate the roster to the status of a championship-contender. On paper, that was indeed the case, the Rockets’ ensemble still featuring several highly regarded players after the trade. Chief among them was Alperen Sengun, who was constantly being compared to Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP.
To say a team that went 52-30 had a dumpster fire season would obviously be hyperbolic. Yet, that’s how it felt. The first domino fell in September when Fred VanVleet went down with a torn ACL, expected to be out for all of 2025-26. This forced Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard to step up to the pressure, an endeavor that had predictably mixed results. Their lack of seasoning, as well as Thompson’s mediocre 3-ball, hampered their ability to run an efficient offense.
These issues were further compounded by Rockets head coach Ime Udoka’s fascination with putting multiple centers on the court. Sure, those giant units were well-equipped for interior dominance. However, as the game has progressed to more perimeter-oriented play, Udoka’s philosophy was more archaic than novel. They also accentuated Houston’s primary weaknesses: playmaking and 3-point shooting.
From that perspective, it’s possible that all the Rockets need to do is add snipers to their infantry.
Yet, there’s more to Houston’s problem than meets the eye.
Ime Udoka or Alperen Sengun?
The Rockets’ problems weren’t confined to roster imbalance, Udoka’s distaste for Sengun’s defense led to him being utilized less than he should have been. Just consider this:
Durant obviously needs his touches, yet his acquisition came with two high-usage starters (Green and Brooks) being shipped out. VanVleet, another high-usage starter, was sidelined. So, it doesn’t make sense for Sengun’s usage (26.6 percent) to have had a minimal difference from his rate in 2024-25 (26.2 percent) or to be less than it was in 2023-24 (27.0 percent).
To put the numbers into words, Udoka didn’t maximize Sengun’s talent or skill set. Instead, he preferred to rely on size, defense and Durant. This formula worked well enough, but it definitely wasn’t great. Not only did it stall Sengun’s development, which should’ve been a priority instead, but the results were pretty much average. In fact, from December to March, Houston went just 33-25. That win percentage (.569) would rank seventh in the West in 2025-26, just ahead of the Suns.
By no means is this to suggest Sengun is perfect. But what player is, really? Hasn’t San Antonio Spurs jeune prodige Victor Wembanyama –the league’s first-ever unanimous Defensive Player of the Year —been pushed around by Sengun before? Didn’t fans just watch Jokic, a three-time NBA MVP, struggle at both ends of the floor for a large portion of the Nuggets’ series against the Minnesota Timberwolves?
The disconnect between Sengun and Udoka doesn’t appear to be personal. It’s also worth noting that Sengun isn’t averse to Udoka’s tough love approach. All the same, Udoka clearly doesn’t see Sengun as the perennial All-Star that he is, preferring to look his gift horse in the mouth.
The Goldilocks Question
Only a select few stars that are expected to have real availability this offseason.
Antetokounmpo is one. After barely showing up to their series against the San Antonio Spurs, the Timberwolves look seem to shake up their starting lineup, likely at the expense of Rudy Gobert or Julius Randle. The Memphis Grizzlies have not let up on trying to let go of Ja Morant.
None of them are quite the right option for the Rockets, primarily because they don’t solve their spacing issues. Frankly, even if an MVP-caliber talent like Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown was on the market, he wouldn’t fit their needs for the same reason. However, there is at least one elite perimeter scorer that could be their Goldilocks: Leonard.
A career 39.1 percent 3-point shooter, Leonard has shot at least 37 percent from 3 for six straight seasons. He’s shot 41 percent from 3 in three seasons. Quiet as kept, he even ranks 20th all-time in made 3-pointers (postseason only). In sum, this is not a player who’ll prevent the Rockets from maximizing their spacing. Leonard’s 3-ball isn’t the only part of his offensive game that sticks out of course, with the seven-time All-Star among most polished midrange scorers that have ever graced the hardwood. His footwork, timing and touch all speak to an undeniable dedication to his craft.
Now, just imagine Leonard teaming up with Durant. The game is played on the hardwood rather than a piece of paper, but that’s definitely a duo that looks daunting. Leonard’s supremacy at the defensive end, which might appeal to Udoka more than any other factor, only enhances the appeal of his acquisition.
The Trade Parameters
It must be mentioned that before deciding to trade for Leonard, they’ll need to see what becomes of the NBA’s investigation into his contract with Aspiration, which was allegedly a shell company utilized by the Clippers in an effort to circumvent the salary cap. Early on, there was talk that the punishments for Leonard could include his contract being voided. Though this is a rather unprecedented situation, if Leonard’s contract does need to be voided, it could be a conundrum for the Rockets if they’d already traded for him.
Besides that, if Leonard’s contract is voided, the Rockets may be able to convince him to sign with them as a free agent. They’ll have the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception available to them, per Spotrac. That number is considerably less than the $50.3 million salary Leonard’s scheduled to receive in 2025-26. However, depending on how his situation plays out, it could be his best option in the short-term. To that point, even the team with the most projected space this offseason (the Brooklyn Nets), is only $15.9 million under the cap.
If Houston does have to put more skin in the game, there are three realistic options:
- A trade package headlined by Kevin Durant
- A trade package headlined by Alperen Sengun
- A trade package headlined by Jabari Smith Jr.
Among those choices, the one that would be least devastating for the fan base and front office is a package that features Jabari Smith Jr., whose rookie-scale extension is set to kick in next season.
Clippers receive: Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela
Rockets receive: Kawhi Leonard, Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Cam Christie
The third overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Smith’s tenure with the Rockets has arguably been as up and down as Green’s was. Nevertheless, he’s long been prized for his two-way upside, the 6-foot-11 hybrid big man capable of scoring in volume and playing high-level defense. If Sengun, Green, Brooks, and now Durant hadn’t simply been better on-ball creators, he’d undoubtedly be ranked higher in pecking order.
For the Clippers, Smith could present them with a long-term solution at power forward. However, because Smith can also play center, he can also replace former cornerstone Ivica Zubac. With Darius Garland on board, and Bennedict Mathurin waiting on the wings as a restricted free agent, L.A. would have established a young and promising core. It’s worth noting that the only Clippers players set to be under contract past 2027 are Garland (26), Isaiah Jackson (24), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (23), and 20-year-old wing Cam Christie (20).
It’s worth noting that even if Los Angeles wanted to extend Leonard’s contract past 2027, the soon-to-be 35-year-old would likely be far and away their oldest player. Thus, due to his age and contract status, Leonard is a sensible trade candidate. And, if the Clippers did trade Leonard, they would likely prefer a younger player.
Of course, Sengun’s offensive ceiling and advanced defensive numbers could make him more attractive to the Clippers than Smith. Yet, because Smith is a better athlete and it’s easier to see the positives of his defensive impact on the court, he’d probably be L.A.’s preference.
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