For just the second time in Nikola Jokic‘s tenure, the Denver Nuggets failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs. Now, the Nuggets face a plethora of tough decisions this offseason, though one of their easier decisions appears to be what to do with Jonas Valanciunas.
Nuggets Expected to Part Ways With Veteran Big Man
Denver finished third in the West with a 54-28 record this past season, four more victories than last season, despite dealing with injuries throughout the year. It is the fourth straight season that the Nuggets have won 50 games. But their lack of defense, evident all season, caught up with the Nuggets as they fell to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs, four games to two.
The Nuggets, owners of the second-best record in the NBA since 2020, enter the offseason with lots of uncertainty. In fact, Nikola Jokic is the only player considered safe.
“I don’t want to be masked in my frustration for how the season ended,” team president Josh Kroenke said following the Nuggets’ elimination. “I think that anybody who was a fan of the Denver Nuggets should be frustrated. And anything that a fan feels, I probably feel a thousand X. So I think everything is gonna be on the table, outside of trading Nikola.”
As frustrated as the Nuggets may be, their biggest problem is that they are projected to be a second-round team if they don’t make major changes. The Nuggets currently have a salary cap hit of $219.4 million with just 10 players under contract for next season. That puts the Nuggets $2.5 million short of the punitive second apron.
Denver has two players making $50 million, Jokic and Jamal Murray, or more next season, and five who are slated to make at least $20 million. Plus, two of their key youngsters — Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones — are restricted free agents.
To make matters more difficult, according to Bennett Durando of the Denver Post, the Nuggets really need to be below the tax threshold in 2026-27.
“The Nuggets were a luxury-tax team for three consecutive seasons, from 2022-23 to 2024-25, including the year they won their first NBA championship in franchise history,” Durando said on May 8. “But what makes this offseason a pivotal moment for them is the additional tax rate known as the repeater tax — a more severe financial penalty based on five-year windows, incentivizing owners not to spend excessively over the salary cap for prolonged periods. A team pays the repeater if it finishes a season in luxury tax territory after having done so in three of the previous four seasons as well.”
The Nuggets were able to get under the tax this year by sending Hunter Tyson to Brooklyn at the trade deadline. While the Nuggets officially have until next February to get under the tax, they will have their work cut out to do so and remain competitive in the West.
Jonas Valanciunas Is All But Gone
Moving off of Valanciunas’ nonguaranteed $10 million expiring deal is the easiest decision for the Nuggets. Valanciunas had a good year backing up Jokic, averaging 8.7 points and 5.1 rebounds (1.7 offensive). He produced five double-doubles and composed shooting splits of 58.2/30.8/77.2. However, he registered one of the worst plus/minus on the team at -0.7.
“Start with backup center Jonas Valanciunas, who has a nonguaranteed salary of $10 million,” Durando said on May 15. “The Nuggets have already agreed to guarantee him $2 million of that. But it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that he won’t be in Denver next season. He might not be in the NBA at all. One major Euro League team already tried to lure him away last summer, and he’s reportedly expected to have more overseas suitors this year.”
Waiving Valanciunas would cut the Nuggets’ cap down to $205 million with nine players, as $2 million of his salary is guaranteed. The Nuggets have three options: trade him, which will likely cost them a second-round draft pick. The Nuggets have until July 8th to make a decision, which is when his salary will be fully guaranteed.
Denver has three avenues to facilitate Valanciunas’ exit. The Nuggets could trade him, but that would likely cost them a second-round draft pick, and they only have three (2026, 2031, and 2033). The Nuggets could ‘eat’ the $2 million by waiving him, which is not a desirable outcome. Or they can waive him and stretch his salary over three years — cutting the salary cap hit to are $666,000 this year.
Whatever decision the Nuggets ultimately make on Valanciunas, they will have to trade Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, or Christian Braun to stay under the tax.
Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
