The Best Of Both Worlds, Kind Of…
Between Jan. 14–March 1, Dallas will play 20 games. Having won 25% of their games without Davis this season, they may very well go 5-15 during that stretch. If so, they would have a 20-40 record two-thirds of the way through 2025-26.
That win percentage (.333) would likely move them even further down in the Western Conference standings, to 13th. In fact, a .333 win percentage would be the sixth-worst in the NBA. In other words, they would be projected to pick sixth in the 2026 NBA Draft (the final results being dependent upon the NBA Draft Lottery).
Keeping that in perspective, the West is not as formidable as it once was. The Golden State Warriors are only three games above .500 and are in playoff contention with the conference’s eighth-best record. The Memphis Grizzlies are five games under .500 and in play-in contention with the conference’s 10th-best record. At 20-40, the hole could be too deep for the Mavs to dig themselves out of. Yet, there’s a legitimate chance that they could still vie for the postseason when Davis and Irving return.
To be frank, this is kind of an ideal scenario. It’s not exactly the best of both worlds. Nevertheless, they would still be marching down two timelines.
While still fighting for a playoff spot, Dallas would likely still be a lottery team. Even if they were to win the final 22 games of the season after starting 20-40, their subsequent win percentage (.525) would match that of the Miami Heat, who are currently projected to have the 15th pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
© Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
