The 2025 WNBA Finals feature a surprising historic matchup as the Las Vegas Aces face the Phoenix Mercury. Las Vegas is back in the WNBA Finals for the third time in four seasons, while Phoenix was last in the title game in 2021.
The 2025 WNBA Finals mark the first for the league in several ways. It marks the first time since the WNBA adopted its current playoff format that two teams from the same conference have faced off for the championship. It is also the first time that a No. 1 seed has not made the title game in the new format. The league’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds matched up against each other in the last two WNBA Finals.
Phoenix, the No. 4 seed, is the first team outside the top 3 seeds to reach the Finals since the fifth-seeded Mercury fell to the sixth-seeded Chicago 3-to-1. Additionally, this is the first year the WNBA has used a best-of-seven series for the Finals, having previously used a best-of-five series in the previous three seasons.
2025 WNBA Finals Preview: Aces Enter Red-Hot While Mercury Have Been Strong All Season, Plus Series and Player Props
After getting off to a slow start to the season, Las Vegas (30-14) entered the postseason as the hottest team in the WNBA. Vegas, which hovered around .500 for the first two and a half months of the season, fell to 14-14 after getting blown out by Minnesota (111-57) on August 2. But that was the last time the Aces lost as they closed the season with 16 straight victories, and a +12.4 scoring margin, to nab the No. 2 seed.
Las Vegas didn’t have an easy time in the playoffs. Vegas was taken to the brink by both Seattle (in the first round) and Indiana (in the semifinals). The Aces defeated the Storm (75-73) and Fever (107-98) in the deciding game of each series.
Meanwhile, Phoenix (27-17) revamped its roster in the offseason with the additions of Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, and showed tremendous growth under second-year head coach Nate Tibbetts. The Mercury were one of the best teams in the “W” all season, but they went 11-6 down the stretch to fall to the fourth seed.
Phoenix had a little bit of an easier time in the playoffs than Vegas. However, the Mercury lost both Game 1s to New York and Minnesota. The Mercury defeated the Liberty in three games and upset the top-seeded Lynx in four.
About The Series
Las Vegas and Phoenix have met 43 times before (regular season and playoffs). The Aces, who won three of four games against the Mercury this year, lead the all-time series 24-19, including 4-3 in the playoffs. The Aces have won 16 of the past 20 meetings.
This matchup marks the third time the teams have met in the playoffs and the first occasion in the WNBA Finals. The Mercury took the 2021 meeting (3-2) while the Aces swept the Mercury (2-0) the very next year.
Las Vegas Aces
2025 Record: 30-14 (2nd)
2025 Playoff Record: 5-3
2025 Home Record: 17-5, 4-1 playoffs
2025 Road Record: 13-9, 1-2 playoffs
Finals Record: 2-1 in 3 WNBA Finals appearances: 2022 and 2023 champions. 6-5 in Finals games
Las Vegas is in its fourth WNBA Finals, having won the championship in 2022 and 2023. The Aces have won six of their 11 Finals games overall. 2025 marks the seventh straight year the Aces have made the playoffs.
Las Vegas’ 30 wins are the second most in Aces history and three more than accrued last season. The Aces were in the middle pack of the league on both sides of the floor. The finished fifth in offensive efficiency and eighth defensively.
After struggling offensively early in the season, Las Vegas ended the season red-hot and is the top shooting team in the playoffs. The Aces do not launch an overbundance of threes, but they have strong perimeter shooters — Jewell Lloyd, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young are their top bombers. Of course, multi-time WNBA MVP and Defensive Player of the Year A’ja Wilson anchors the Aces’ offense and defense.
Defensively, the Aces aren’t great. However, the Aces do defend the 3-point line and protect the paint. They are not a great rebounding team.
Phoenix Mercury
2025 Record: 27-17 (4th)
2025 Playoff Record: 5-2
2025 Home Record: 15-8, 3-1 playoffs
2025 Road Record: 12-10, 2-1 playoffs
Finals Record: 3-2 in 5 Finals appearances: 2007, 2009, and 2013. 10-6 in Finals games
Phoenix, one of the original WNBA members, is making its sixth Finals appearance. However, three of their Finals appearances were before 2010, with their last being in 2021.
Phoenix improved from last year as the Mercury increased their talent. The Mercury’s 27 victories are their second most in franchise history. The Mercury like to push the pace, but still finished in the middle of the pack in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Phoenix loves to launch 3-pointers, though the Mercury are just average shooters from deep — Sabally, Sami Whitcomb, Kaleah Copper, and DeWanna Bonner. The Mercury doesn’t turn the ball over much and has done a better job rebounding the ball during the playoffs.
Finals Schedule
Game 1: October 3 in Las Vegas, 8 pm (ESPN)
Game 2: October 5 in Las Vegas, 3 pm (ABC)
Game 3: October 8 in Phoenix, 8 pm (ESPN)
Game 4: October 10 in Phoenix, 8 pm (ESPN)
Game 5: October 12 in Las Vegas, 3:00 p.m. (ESPN), if necessary.
Game 6: October 15 in Phoenix, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN) necessary.
Game 7: October 17 in Las Vegas, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN), if necessary.
Predictions
Game 1:
Go with Vegas on the money line as this first game should be entertaining and tight. The Aces have been dominant at home and rolling overall over the last two months, winning 21 of their previous 24 contests. Additionally, the Mercury have struggled in Games 1 and 2, particularly on the defensive end, after a 4-day break.
Vegas has won three of the four games of the series against Phoenix this year, including each of the last three. Wilson is at a matchup for the Mercury, averaging over 25 points and 15 boards vs Phoenix this season. The Aces’ only loss to the Mercury was the first contest, in which Wilson sat out. Young and Gray have also been solid against the Mercury this season.
Meanwhile, Sabally has been excellent against Vegas this season. Thomas and Copper also have had their moments, but more inconsistencies. Copper is a lot more vulnerable to bad games in this series than Thomas.
Prediction: Vegas 83, Mercury 78
Spread: Lean Vega (-3.5), but pass
Over/Under 163.5: Go with the Under: Projected Score 160-162 range.
Series Prediction/ Player Props To Consider (Each Game of Series)
- Vegas (-130) to win in six games or seven games. Expect most contests to be close, so go with the underdog if the spread is 4.5-to-5 in instances.
- Fade Vegas on the money line in Phoenix.
- Go with the over in most games.
- A’ja Wilson to win 2025 WNBA Finals MVP (-125)
- Jackie Young Over 1.5 made threes (-125), each game
- Satou Sabally Over 16.5 points (+100)
- Alyssa Thomas Triple-Double (select games)
- A’ja Wilson Double-Double (most, if not all, games)
- DeWanna Bonner +5.5 rebounds (+125, see how the series plays out, but definitely consider)
© Stephen R. Sylvanie, Imagn Imaes
