The WNBA will kick off the 2025 edition of its Commissioner’s Cup on Sunday with four contests. Now in its fifth season, the WNBA has crowned a new champion in each of its tournaments. Who will win this year’s tournament?
2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup: Day 1 Previews and Best Bets
The 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup will run from June 1 through June 17, with each team playing every squad in their respective conference. With the expansion of the Golden State Valkyries in the Western Conference, six games will now count towards the event. Since the Eastern Conference still only has six teams, each team will participate in five Commissioner’s Cup contests.
The Commissioner’s Cup is the WNBA’s version of the NBA Play-In Tournament. So, at the end of the day, it is all about “all about the money,” Minnesota guard Natisha Hiedeman so eloquently stated last year after the Lynx defeated the New York Liberty in last year’s title contest.
The 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup champions will receive $150,000 to distribute among their players. In addition, like last year, Bitcoin will gift each player in this year’s Commissioner’s Cup title contest cryptocurrency worth $5,000.
The defending champion Lynx will face the Valkryries to close out today’s set of contests in San Francisco. New York (2023), Las Vegas (2022), and Seattle (2021) also have claimed the Commissioner’s Cup crown.
WNBA Injuries
Injuries have already taken a toll on several clubs. Indiana Fever star guard Caitlin Clark is out for at least one more week as she recovers from a quadriceps injury. Dallas Wings Paige Bueckers recently entered the league’s concussion protocol and missed her first professional game last night. However, those two are not the only major injuries, as several of the eight teams playing today are dealing with significant injuries.
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (personal) and Megan Gustafson (leg) haven’t played all season and remain out for Las Vegas. Phoenix’s Kahleah Copper (knee surgery) and Natasha Mack (back) also have yet to make their season debut, and it is unclear exactly when they will debut. Meanwhile, Seattle’s Katie Lou Samuelson (knee) will likely miss the entire campaign after undergoing knee surgery. Here is a look at other injuries and status for players playing today.
Today’s Injury List
Lyndsay Allen, Connecticut: Allen suffered a hamstring injury on May 23. The 30-year-old will likely be out another week.
Leila Lecon, Sun: The 2024 first-round pick still has yet to make her WNBA debut as she is currently finishing up her overseas season. She is expected to join Connecticut in July.
Rae Burrell, Los Angeles: Burrell suffered a leg injury in the Stars season-opener and is out for another four to six weeks.
Cameron Brink, Sparks: Brinks also hasn’t made her season debut and is out until later this month while rehabbing her knee.
Rickea Jackson, Sparks: Jackson (personal) will miss her fifth game of the season. There is no timetable for her return to the court, though it is conceivable that she will return for LA’s next game (June 6).
Nyara Sabally, Liberty: Sabally has been out since May 23 due to a knee injury, though the 25-year-old center is questionable for Sunday’s contest.
Lexi Held, Phoenix: Held is dealing with a quad injury and is considered a game-time decision.
Alyssa Thomas, Mercury: Thomas will miss her second straight game with a calf injury. It is unclear how long she will be out of action.
Alysha Clark, Seattle: Clark sat out the Storm’s game on Friday with an ankle injury and is questionable for today’s contest.
Napheesa Collier, Minnesota: Collier missed the Lynx’s last game with a knee ailment and is questionable for tonight’s contest.
2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Day 1 Preview and Predictions
While the Lynx and Valkyries will close out Sunday’s WNBA action, the day will start with the Connecticut Sun tangling with the Liberty. Meanwhile, the other two games feature the Phoenix Mercury facing the Los Angeles Sparks and the Seattle Storm hosting the Las Vegas Aces.
Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty, 3 p.m. Line: Liberty -18.5, O/U 163.5
This matchup between the Sun and Liberty is the first of four matchups between the Eastern Conference squads. Connecticut (1-5) is in full rebuild mode and picked up its first win of the season over Indiana, who were without Caitlin Clark, on Friday. Conversely, New York (6-0) appears to be a team primed to make a serious run at repeating as WNBA champions.
Connecticut sits alongside Dallas at the bottom of the WNBA standings. The Sun has had trouble scoring all season long, and their 85 points against Indiana on Friday was their second-highest output of the season. It was the third time that the Sun topped the 80-point mark. They have the worst scoring margin in the league at -13.3 points a game.
Connecticut is 12th in the league in scoring, averaging 74 points per game, and 11th in defense, allowing 87.3 points per game. 36-year-old Tina Charles is having somewhat of a resurgence in her return to Connecticut as she leads the Sun with 17 points a game. Marina Mabrey, who poured in a season-high 26 points on Friday, and Olivia Nelson-Oboda also averages double-figures.
New York is the top-scoring team in the WNBA at 90.5 points, as the Liberty have topped the 90-point mark in four of their contests. The Liberty also lead the league in scoring defense (74.5) and scoring margin (+16).
Perhaps the most significant difference between this year and last year is their depth. Newcomer Natasha Cloud has taken a lot of the workload off of Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Stewart leads four players in double figures and has been the most efficient she has been in years while playing fewer than 29 minutes a game.
Marine Johanreturnsturn after taking last season off, and second-year Leonie Fieblich‘s development has been a godsend for the Liberty. They also still have double-double machine, Jonquel Jones.
Betting Tips and Predictions
New York has been excellent to open the see,ason and the Liberty’s depth could get a boost with the return of Sabally. The Liberty have four 20-point wins this season. Meanwhile, the Sun have suffered three setbacks of at least 20 points. Moreover, the Liberty have won six of their last seven games against the Sun and are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) versus Connecticut.
Despite saying that and having the Liberty as 22-point favorites, 18.5 points is a lot to give up. So, the prudent bet is to pass. Unless you believe that the Sun can cover.
The Liberty have not defeated the Sun by 20 points since September 21, 2023, and have outscored their opponents by 15 points at home this season. In addition, the Liberty have not won a game by double digits following a one-day break.
While Connecticut has been outscored 92-68 on the road this season, the Sun played well against the Fever in their last outing. Charles and Mabrey have been excellent. Plus, the Sun has lost just one of their three road games — which included falling at Minnesota by six — by more than 20 points, and their average margin of road defeat is nine.
Instead of making a pre-game ATS bet, it may behoove you to make an in-game bet instead, hoping the Sun gets off to a quick start.
ATS: Pass.
Better Bet
The better bet is taking the over. The over has gone up one point since the opening line. My prediction is New York to coast to a 91-74 victory.
Based on my prediction, it is clear that I believe there will be a lot of points scored. However, I am not overly confident with the pick and feel the 163.5-point spread is a good number for the sportsbooks.
Therefore, I believe the smart bet is to “buy” some points down to get the spread down to 160.5 or 161.5 to enhance your chances of winning.
Phoenix Mercury at Los Angeles Sparks, 6 p.m. Line: Sparks -1.5, O/U 163.5
The Mercury and Sparks, along with the AAces and Storm, have the potential to be bangers. The Mercury and the Sparks are meeting for the second time already this year. Phoenix held off LA 89-86 on May 21 despite the Sparks getting a combined 47 points from Kelsey Plum and Azura Stevens. The Mercury are playing just their second road contest of the season.
Phoenix (4-2) has been one of the biggest surprises in the early going. The Mercury is fifth in the league with a +4.3 scoring margin, with their losses coming by a combined 11 points.
Phoenix has been one of the best defensive teams in the early going, ranking second in the league with a 92.7 defensive rating. However, the Mercury have struggled offensively. The Mercury, who are 10th in the league in scoring and efficiency, really struggled in their 74-71 loss to the Lynx on Friday without Thomas.
Los Angeles (2-5) has not had a full squad all season and won’t again tonight. The Sparks have a relatively solid -2.4 scoring margin, as they have been pretty good offensively. The Sparks are seventh in the league in offensive efficiency (102.4) and scoring nearly 82 points a contest. Plum leads three players who average at least 15 points with 19.0 points a game. Dearica Hamby (18.0) and Stevens (15.0) have also been good on that end, but they are the only other Sparks to average double figures.
However, LA has struggled on the defensive end. The Sparks are 10th in defensive rating and 10th in defensive scoring, with a rating of 84.1. The Sparks have lost two straight and are coming off a season-worst 15-point loss to Las Vegas (96-81) on Friday.
Betting Tips and Predictions
The line has changed dramatically here. Los Angeles opened as 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 160.5 points. The Sparks are now 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 163.5 points.
I like Phoenix here to cover here. At the same time, I have some concerns about Thomas missing her second straight contest, especially since this is just the Mercury’s second road contest. However, I believe their defense will keep them in the game.
Los Angeles is 1-8 in their last nine games at home. Moreover, the Sparks are winless in their previous five against the Mercury and 1-4 against the spread.
While I have the LA projected to win 81-79, I will pass here, as I believe the Mercury is deep enough to cover the loss of Thomas. However, I may throw some money on the Sparks if Held can’t go as well.
Pick: Lean LA if Held can’t play.
ATS: Pass
Over/Under: Pass, though I would lean the under with Thomas out. Thomas is such an integral part of the Mercury’s offense, not only as a scorer but also as a facilitator.
Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm, 6 p.m. Line: Aces -2.5, O/U 159.5
The Aces and the Storm are facing each other for the second time in a week. Seattle won that meeting 102-82 last Sunday, as the Storm jumped on the Aces early. Nneka Ogwumike led five Storm players in double-figures with 23 points, while all five starters scored at least nine points.
Seattle (3-3) has been a compelling story thus far, following a challenging offseason that saw the Storm trade star guard Jewell Loyd. While the Storm began the season winning three of four, they have lost two straight. After falling to Minnesota on Tuesday, they lost 94-87 to the Atlanta Dream. Skylar Diggins is off to a strong start after struggling last year, which followed a year off due to maternity leave.
Las Vegas (3-2) has been very inconsistent to start the season. All three of the Aces’ losses have been against teams currently not in the league’s top eight. Granted, the Aces are playing their fourth road game, but both of their losses have been by double-digits.
Aj’a Wilson, who has four double-doubles, is in her typical MVP form, and Jackie Young is off to a strong start. However, the Aces made numerous changes this offseason, and Loyd has struggled to adapt to Becky Hammon’s system.
Betting Tips and Predictions
I really like Seattle here, and getting plus money is the whipped Cream on Sunday. I have the Storm as a one-point favorite against Las Vegas. The Storm defeated the Aces by 20 points last Sunday, and they have a margin of victory of over six points at home this season.
My biggest concern is the health of Alysha Clark, as she is a good wing defender and starts for the Storm. So, if she can’t go, it will hurt the Storm’s depth. Still, I believe that the Storm have enough firepower to fend off the inconsistent Aces without Clark. They have a plus-3.0 point margin over the last three games.
Las Vegas is 1-2 against the league’s top eight teams, with its lone victory coming over Washington by three points. The Aces have also lost to the Liberty by 14 points in the season opener. Moreover, the Aces own a minus-3.0 scoring margin on the road. They are 1-4 in their last five road games, including 1-3-1 ATS in away contests.
Pick: Seattle (+125).
While I like Seattle to win, the best bet is the over. The point spread has dropped four points since opening at 163.5 points.
I have the over/under between 163 and 174 with a predicted score of 88-82. The teams combined for 182 points in the first meeting. Furthermore, the average score for the last three games for the Aces is 169 (84-85), while the Storm’s is 171 (89-82).
Best Pick: Over 159.5 points.
Minnesota Lynx at Golden State Valkyries, 8:30 p.m. Line: Lynx -11.5, O/U 158
Minnesota and Golden State are meeting for the first time in the franchise’s history. Minnesota (6-0) has been the second-best team thus far in the early going, and Kayla McBride recently made her season debut.
The Lynx are one of two teams, the Liberty being the other, that are in the top five in both offensive and defensive ratings. Collier, who finished second in the 2024 MVP voting last season, is off to a career start. The reigning Defensive POY averages 26.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.4 blocks.
Golden State (2-3) won two of their first three games of the season. While the Valkyries dropped both of their recent contests to New York, they gave the Liberty all they could handle on Friday. The Valkyries are playing just their second regular season at the Chase Center.
Golden State averages a WNBA-worse 73.8 points a game. Undrafted rookie Janelle Saluan leads the way for the Valkyries with 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds. Kayla Thornton has taken a huge role offensively for Golden State, while Tiffany Hayes and Veronica Burton also average double-figures. Hayes is expected to return to the court after being out since May 21.
Betting Tips and Predictions
I like Minnesota and the under here. However, with the point spread increasing from 10 to 11.5 points and the over/under dropping five points to 158.5, I’m going to pass. My projections have the Lynx winning 84-74, but that is with Collier playing.
ATS: Pass, although I would lean towards the Lynx if Collier plays.
Over/Under: Pass, although I lean toward taking the under.
Photo Credit: © Candice Ward, Imagine Images
