The Oklahoma City Thunder knotted their Western Conference semifinal series with the Denver Nuggets at 2-2 on Sunday afternoon with a gutty 92-87 victory. However, OKC has struggled offensively in the last two games. As a result of these struggles, the top-seeded Thunder would be down three games to one if not for their outstanding defensive efforts. So, the question is, does Mark Daigneault need to change the lineup?
Oklahoma City won a franchise-record and NBA-best 68 games this regular season, four more than Cleveland. A big reason for the Thunder’s success, besides Shai Alexander-Gilgous’s MVP season, has been their depth.
OKC has the second-best-ranked starting and bench in the league. The Thunder were also one of two teams with a top-five offense and defense, as they were third in offensive rating and first on the defensive end. They were also seventh in effective shooting percentage and sixth in true shooting percentage.
Do The Thunder Need To Make A Lineup Change Heading Into WC Semifinals Game 5?
OKC ran roughshod over Memphis in the first round, scoring at least 114 points in each of the four-game sweep. The Thunder totaled 268 points, including 149 points in Game 2, which included an NBA-record-tying 87 first-half points, through the first two games of the semifinals while splitting the two games with the Nuggets at OKC.
But the last two contests have been a different story. The Thunder only averaged 98 points in Denver, the third lowest over the previous two games among the eight teams remaining in the playoffs, as they shot 37.5% from the field and 25% from deep.
OKC’s offensive struggles over this two-game stretch allowed Denver to stay in Games 3 and 4 despite holding the Nuggets to 38.8% shooting and 31.8% from beyond the arc. Besides their excellent defensive efforts, particularly on Nikola Jokic, the Thunder are still in the series due to their yeomen’s work on the offensive glass. As a result of their offensive rebounding prowess and turning the ball over five times more than the Nuggets, the Thunder have attempted 26 more shots than Denver.
Should Mark Daigneault Make A Change To OKC’s Starting 5?
While Gilgeous-Alexander took the brunt of the blame for OKC’s struggles in Game 3, the Thunder’s starting unit has struggled offensively this entire series. The Thunder’s starting five averages 79.3 points on 41.3% shooting from the field. While their first five owns a +4.3 rating in the series, they have knocked down only 20 of their 90 3-point attempts (22.2%).
The Thunder’s starting unit has been worse over the last two games. In Games 3 and 4, the Thunder’s starting five have compiled 69 points with shooting splits of 35.5/15.2/90.3% and a plus/minus of -3.5. Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren are the only players averaging double-figures during this short stretch. Isaiah Hartenstein has struggled with efficiency in the last two contests, but he averages 11.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists for the series.
That brings us to Luguentz Dort. Dort is the longest-tenured Thunder player and has been a starter since day one. Known as a 3-and-D wing, Dort has totaled nine points over the last two years and has been extremely inefficient this entire postseason. Granted, the 26-year-old has been playing solid defense, had the best season of his career, and set a career-high with 2.4 threes on a career-best 41.2% clip.
Dort was fantastic last year during the playoffs, but that hasn’t been the case this postseason. While he has scored in double figures three times this postseason, including twice in the semifinals, he has had two solid games.
Who Could Daigneault Switch Dort Out For?
Dort averages 7.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.5 threes while shooting 29.7/25.5/75 in 28 minutes over the eight playoff contests. Dort was on the court for only 19 minutes, a playoff low, in Game 4, as he missed eight of ten shots from beyond the arc and was a plus/minus -6.
He is a plus/minus +5 in the playoffs, the second-worst among the nine Thunder players who have played all eight games. However, he has a minus -6.5 over the last two games and is even in the Nuggets series.
If he does change things up, Daigneault has several options. He could start Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, or Aaron Wiggins. The Thunder went 11-o in the games that Dort missed this season.
Caruso, Joe, Wallace, and Wiggins are already a major part of Daigneault’s playoff rotation and have starting experience. Caruso has started the fewest games this season of the four players mentioned.
“It’s never, like, ‘I wonder what we should do now,’” Daigneault speaking to Joel Lorenzi of The Oklahoman about his second unit. “It’s always frameworks that we work through during the seasons. We have a pretty good understanding of frameworks of lineups, frameworks of rotations, different levers we can pull. We’re not just throwing stuff against the wall in the highest stakes games.”
The Players
Caruso is the Thunder’s 6th man of the year and ace perimeter defender. The 31-year-old guard has come off the bench for the majority of his career. He did start three games this season, with the Thunder outscoring their opponents by an average of nearly 12 points. However, he has been more effective coming off the bench as a team’s sparkplug than starter throughout his career.
Joe is similar to Dort. Joe is a better shooter, though not quite as good a defender. He has scored in double figures three times in the playoffs, averaging 6.4 points and 1.5 threes with shooting splits of 47.4/38.7/75.
Joe has a +5.3 plus/minus rating, including +1.8 in the semifinals. The Thunder went 14-2 in the 16 games Joe started, and he had a +11.4 rating. The 25-year-old has been more efficient in his limited starts (29) than as a reserve.
Aaron Wiggins
Wiggins is another 3-and-D wing. However, Wiggins is much more offensively versatile than Joe, Dort, and Caruso. He can get out in transition or score off the cut while also knocking an occasional three. He is also a better passer than Joe and Dort and a quality defender.
Wiggins has continued his stellar play during the postseason despite seeing limited minutes after registering a career-best regular season. The 26-year-old has scored in double figures three times during the playoffs, averaging 7.4 points and 1.4 triples with shooting splits of 50/40.7/85.7.
Wiggins started 26 games with the Thunder this regular season, with OKC going 22-4. He has a plus/minus rating of + 8.6. While Wiggins hasn’t been as efficient as a starter as he has been off the bench, he has been productive nonetheless.
Wallace is the most complete player of the foursome. However, the 21-year-old is not the shooter or scorer the others are. Plus, he brings energy and pace to the second unit. Wallace is having an outstanding postseason,
Last Word
While there is no word that Daigneault is considering a lineup change, I believe one would benefit the Thunder. Wiggins is the likely choice if a change is made. Also, even if Daigneault adjusts his rotation, that doesn’t mean Dort should not be part of it or should get considerably less than 20 minutes of court time. I would expect that Dort would see plenty of playing time and, perhaps, get the brunt of it if he gets hot due to his defensive ability.
“I definitely trust the body of work over time more than small sample sizes,” Daigneault said when discussing Dort, per Lorenzi. “If the question is whether or not I’m confident in his 3-point shooting, I am. He’s the last guy I’m worried about. We also have a deep team.”
Photo Credit:© Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images
