The Final Four lived up to the hype. Auburn had the game in control in the first half, but Florida turned up the defensive pressure and the tempo to glide to a 79-73 win in the national championship semifinals. Houston had a similar story. The Cougars upset the national championship favorite following a huge comeback win in the last 1:30 of the game. Two teams, one game remaining. Let’s look at how both Florida and Houston overcame their deficits and what they can do to win the 2025 national championship on Monday.
2025 National Championship: How Florida and Houston Can Win
Florida
There was one main question for Florida going into the second half: Will they control the tempo? Auburn controlled the pace, not letting Florida run the floor. That changed in the second half when star Walter Clayton Jr. took the ball and pushed forward—every possession. I said Florida needed to dominate the rebounding margin, preferably by 10. They won the rebound margin by nine. Florida came back because of their great defensive pressure. However, Houston will be a different animal.
I do not expect Florida to outrebound Houston by 10 or more. Houston flies to the rim in every possible way. The 2025 national championship will be decided on Florida’s defensive side of the court. Florida has a top 10 defensive efficiency, and Houston has a top 10 offensive efficiency. The other side of the court gets all the recognition for each team. Florida will need to limit open threes. Houston shot 10-22 from three and only turned the ball over nine times against Duke. Florida will need to be better than Duke at both of those things if they hope to win the championship.
Florida also needs to control the tempo. Florida doesn’t want to get into a low-scoring slugfest with a team like Houston. Florida wants to push the ball and create problems. Houston wants to slow the whole game down to just grind out a win. If this game is scored below 65 points, I like Houston to get the win. If the game is played above 75 points, I like Florida. Every bucket will be hard, but they have to find quick baskets and not let Houston set their defense and slow them down.
Houston
The Houston sideline may have been the only people on the planet who believed. Down 14 points in the second half, including a six-point deficit with 35 seconds remaining, Houston turned up everything that is Houston basketball. The defense was suffocating. Every player flew to the backboard for rebounds. Every player knew their role and executed. Houston had no margin for error and executed perfectly.
Houston’s recipe to win will be extremely similar to their last game. Florida has an elite offense and defense. The Cougars will need to hit tough shots on the offensive end and limit the dynamic Gators offense. It’s much easier said than done, but you can’t count them out, no matter what the score is. Each player will bring that same intensity. No lead will be safe for Florida, but they can’t let Clayton take over the game late.
Rebounding will likely decide this game. Both teams crash the boards, so there will be huge scuffles for the ball with every missed shot. Houston may not have the same numbers as Florida, but a dominating 42-31 advantage over the Blue Devils won the game. If either team can manage a huge rebound disparity, they will come out on top. I think it will remain close, but give me the team who wins the rebound margin (as long as it’s at least three).
2025 National Championship Prediction
LJ Cryer starts hot again, helping Houston keep up with a dynamic Florida offense. However, over time, Houston wears down the Gators. Florida leads at the half, but Houston continues to slowly grind out a lead in the second half. Florida will hit clutch shots, but Houston’s pressure will be too much for even the great Clayton. The Cougars lock down the Gators and win Houston’s first national championship. The win will be Kelvin Sampson’s 800th win in his career. There’s no better way to hit any milestone.
Final Score: Houston 64 – 59 Florida
Photo credit: © Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
