It is that time of year for the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Sunday. The NCAA basketball selection committee released its field for the 2025 tournament. Who were the big winners and losers?
Gonzaga, Louisville, Kentucky, and Texas Among Winners and Losers In 2025 NCAA Selection Sunday
As expected, the Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Houston Cougars, and Florida Gators were awarded the No. 1 seeds. However, Auburn didn’t deserve to be the top seed overall. It is not a huge issue, but Duke had a better resume, and the Blue Devils defeated the Tigers in their lone meeting.
The SEC received a record 14 bids. While the SEC was the best conference in the nation, and by a long shot, 14 bids in a 16-team league was at least one too many. Texas, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma were all on shaky ground entering Selection Sunday. Vandy is the most deserving of those four teams, though I can’t argue too much with Arkansas and Oklahoma’s inclusion.
Louisville No. 8 Seed Is Way Too Low
Louisville is probably the biggest loser of the seeding process. The Cardinals deserved to be either a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.
Louisville, back in the NCAA tournament for the first time in six years, won 27 games in its first year under coach Pat Kelsey. This was the Cardinals’ most victories since winning 27 contests during the 2014-15 season. The Cards also won a school-record 18 conference games, one fewer ACC win than they accumulated between 2020 and 2024.
UofL finished tied with Clemson for second place in the ACC, one game behind Duke and reached the ACC tournament title game. The Cardinals ranked in the top 60 in the nation in both offensive and defensive ratings. They were 23rd in the Net rankings and outscored their opponents by nearly 10 points a game.
Furthermore, Louisville went 13-4 away from the KFC Yum Center and was 15-6 against quality opponents. The Cardinals registered four Quad I victories and posted victories over Clemson, West Virginia, and Indiana. Granted, four of their seven losses were by double figures.
Louisville faces No. 9 Creighton in a first-round South bracket game. The winner will likely face Auburn in the second round.
New Mexico No. 10 Slightly Low
New Mexico can’t throw too much shade at the committee, though the Lobos should have been a No. 9 seed. New Mexico in the NCAA tournament for a second straight year — the first time the Lobos have made back-t0-back tournaments since the early to mid-2010s
New Mexico won 26 games, including a school-record 17 Mountain West contests, and captured the MWC regular season crown. However, the Lobos lost to Boise State in the MWC tournament semifinals.
New Mexico had a Net ranking of 42, which indicates the committee wasn’t too far off. However, the Lobos were 10-4 away on the road/neutral site games. They also had 11 wins against quality opponents, which is more than Georgia, Missouri, and Saint Mary’s.
New Mexico owns the 18th-best defensive team in the nation. The Lobos have victories over UCLA, VCU, Colorado State (two), Utah State (two), and San Diego State.
New Mexico faces No. 7 Marquette in a South Region first-round matchup.
Baylor’s No. 9 Is Slightly Too High
Baylor deserved to be in the NCAA tournament despite having 14 losses. But the Bears shouldn’t have been seeded higher than VCU and New Mexico.
Baylor is a good team, though they don’t stand out in any particular area. Norchad Omier is a veteran NCAA tournament performer who helped Miami reach the Final Four in 2023, while VJ Edgecombe is a must-watch two-way guard.
Baylor was just 6-11, but 12 of the Bears’ 18 victories were quality wins. The Bears edged St. John’s in overtime and defeated Arkansas and Kansas. Conversely, six losses were by double figures, including a 38-point setback to Gonzaga.
Baylor faces No. 8 seeded Mississippi State in an East Region first-round matchup.
Arizona’s No. 4 Seed Extremely High
Arizona was projected as a No. 6 seed with a 22-12 record. The Wildcats finished third in the Big 12, though they did challenge themselves with their schedule. The Wildcats recorded nine victories away from Tucson and 14 quality wins, including 10 in Quality I games.
Arizona’s top-notch have come against Iowa State, BYU, and Texas Tech (two). Only four of their losses were by double figures.
Arizona faces No. 13 seed Akron in a first-round East Region matchup.
VCU’s No. 11 Seed Is Very Low
VCU won 27 games, including 15 A-10 contests, outscoring its opponents by over 15 points per game. The Rams had a NET rating of 31 and are a solid 13-5 away from home. They posted eight quality wins, though their best victory was over Colorado State. They do have some shaky losses, which do occur during a college season these days, though none by double-digits.
VCU opens up its Midwest Region slate against No. 6 BYU.
Montana and Robert Morris Should have Switched Lines.
There’s not much here. However, Robert Morris should have been on the 14th seed line, and Montana should have been on the 15th line.
Robert Morris registered one more victory than Montana. However, three of the Grizzlies’ wins were against non-division I teams, compared to one for the Colonials.
RMU has a slightly higher NET rating than Montana. Granted, Montana played a more brutal earlier schedule, though five of their six quality losses came by double-digits. The Colonials had better wins and a higher scoring margin.
Robert Morris faces No. 2 Alabama in their opener, and Montana tangles with Wisconsin in the first round.
North Carolina Deserved To Be In Tournament While West Virginia Didn’t
There is a lot of angst about North Carolina not deserving an NCAA tournament bid. That is ridiculous. The only way teams can be measured as whether they are a tournament team is by wins. While Carolina wasn’t a tournament team a month ago, they won 21 games, equal to or more than several SEC schools. In addition, they had one more victory over a DI opponent than San Diego State.
Yes, the Tar Heels went 1-12 in Quad I games, but that is a misnomer, as teams’ individual net rankings are pretty rigid. Plus, the way the Net works—as with any rankings—is very subjective. Stanford (20-12) is not the 81st best, Wake Forest (21-11) isn’t the 69, and Kansas or Pittsburgh (17-15) is the 61st in the nation, as their Net rankings indicate. Furthermore, Drake (30-3), with two Quad I wins, isn’t No. 56, as Santa Clara (20-12) isn’t No. 57.
Not only is the NET system too rigid, but teams can face an opponent in consecutive games, which counts differently based on where the games are played. As mentioned above, teams could be a point or three apart, and one game can count as a Quad I contest, while another game against a similar or perhaps arguably better team is a Quad II contest because you are home instead of on the road.
My solution is to rank teams with very flexible rankings during the season, as indicated by their play, and have two or three tiers. One tier would be quality games ( top 140), the second tier (141-225), and tier three (226—end). Also, have road/neutral games be more valuable as tournament games are not played on anyone’s home court, and it has been proven a lot harder for college teams to win away from their friendly confines.
But back to UNC. The Tar Heels have nine quality wins (Quad I and II) and more victories “on the road” than most tournaments (10). Their 20 games away, or 60% of their total, from the Dean Smith Center is nearly unheard of for a Power 4 program. Comparatively, Duke played half of their games at home, and Auburn hosted 54.5% of their opponents.
Similarly, WVU was just 19-13 on the season, including 6-9 on the road — meaning UNC won two more games and four more away from home. The Mountaineers did have two more Quality wins in three more chances.
North Carolina faces San Diego State in Dayton on Tuesday. The winner plays Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt At No. 10 Is A Little High
Vanderbilt had a solid season, though the Commodores struggled down the stretch, losing nine of their last 14. Vanderbilt likely should have been one of the last four in or at least lower than North Carolina.
Vandy is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017, so that is nice to see. The Commodores only posted six victories away from Nashville and had a NET rating of 48. The Commodores did record nine quality wins, including solid victories over Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Missouri. They have outscored their opponents by 4.8 points a contest.
Vanderbilt will square off against Saint Mary’s in a 7-10 game East Regional first-round clash.
Xavier Made It
Xavier also deserved to make the tournament. However, there is agreement that the Musketeers were one of the last four teams in the field.
Xavier was 21-11, just like Carolina, and finished with one Quad I win and nine quality victories. The biggest difference is that the Tar Heels had more road victories (10-6), though there isn’t whining about Xavier getting a berth.
Xavier and Texas will square off in Dayton.
Texas Longhorns Are In
Texas likely should be in the NCAA tournament. However, 15 losses is a considerable amount, as the last team. The Longhorns are the fourth team since 2017 to earn a tournament spot with that many losses.
Obviously, Texas was awarded for being a member of the SEC. As mentioned, the conference was very strong but not as strong as the committee believes.
Texas recorded 10 quality wins, seven of Quad I victories. Another plus is that the Longhorns picked up eight road/neutral victories, and their average margin of victory was over six.
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