It took only three seeds to be called on Selection Sunday for controversy. Louisville popped onto the screen as an eight-seed, and many people reacted similarly: “How did they get an eight-seed?” 27-7 with a runner-up finish in both the regular season and ACC Tournament? The next reaction went something like this: so North Carolina is done. No, actually, the Tar Heels sneaked into the tournament.
So Clemson was punished just like Louisville, right, since the Cardinals beat the Tigers twice? No, the Tigers received a five-seed, a respectable seed for their resume. Louisville lost to Duke, so maybe Duke wasn’t as respected? Duke received the number two overall seed in the tournament, as expected. So despite a turnaround season, the Cardinals didn’t get the respect that the other ACC teams received. Was it justified? And what is Louisville’s NCAA Tournament path following their seeding snub?
Louisville’s Insane NCAA Tournament Path After Seed Snub
Was Louisville’s Seed Justified?
Louisville’s seed was too low. That appears to be the consensus around the entire basketball world. Let’s compare some teams here:
Team A: 24-9; 8-7 Q1; 6-2 Q2; NET: 25; SOS: 45; OOC SOS: 313; SOR: 19; WAB:21
B: 23-10; 6-8 Q1; 7-2 Q2; NET: 26; SOS: 40; OOC SOS: 13; SOR: 23; WAB: 29
C: 27-7; 4-6 Q1: 11-1 Q2; NET 24; SOS: 58; OOC SOS: 31; SOR: 10; WAB: 17
I’ve chosen the top metrics and numbers the Selection Committee uses to determine seeds. Metrics favor Team C along with the overall record and Q1/Q2 wins, while Team A leads in Q1 record and Team B leads in Strength of Schedule. Arguments could certainly made for any of these teams to have the “better resume.”
In my eyes, these teams are extremely similar and should have been on the same seed line. However, Team A, BYU, earned a six seed, Team B, Marquette, earned a seven seed, and Louisville, Team C, earned an eight seed. Louisville’s resume matches those with a higher seed. Their seed was not justified. What difference does that make in Louisville’s NCAA Tournament path? An eight has to play a one in the second round if they make it.
Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Path
Louisville opens with Creighton, another team that people think may have deserved a higher seed. Louisville and Creighton are fairly even teams and arguably did not deserve to be placed in this section of the bracket, especially against each other. If Louisville survives, they will get to play the number one overall seed, Auburn, in the round of 32. What a reward for finishing second in the ACC. While the ACC certainly had a down year, that is hardly a fair placement. Louisville’s NCAA Tournament path as an eighth seed could not be against Duke, so their options were Houston or Florida. None of those would be easy, but the draw just seems unfair.
Louisville should be a six or seven-seed. Instead, they face an almost-definite loss in the round of 32 if they can win their first game. They may have the hardest path to the Sweet Sixteen of any team in the entire field. Funny enough, North Carolina has an easier path to the Sweet Sixteen than Louisville. Again, what a reward for finishing second in the ACC.
The Last Word
The Selection Committee robbed Louisville of a fair path. Now, all they can do is try and win. However, Louisville deserved better, especially when they finished above Clemson and beat them twice. While the Selection Committee made many unnerving decisions, Louisville’s seed is one of the most questionable decisions. It doesn’t make much sense, and there isn’t a very consistent argument for their snub. Louisville’s NCAA Tournament path is nearly impossible, but like every other team, it’s just one game at a time for the Cardinals.
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