It is 2025 NCAA tournament bubble watch time, and several teams are fighting to earn one of the 37 at-large bids. At least temporarily, with the disbandment of the Pac-12, one more at-large bid is available this year.
2025 NCAA Bubble Watch: 10 Teams Who Need a Strong Finish To Earn A 2025 Tournament Berth
Here is a look at 10 NCAA basketball teams that need a strong close to the season—including a few squads that likely need to go undefeated down the stretch. This includes three SEC and two Big Ten squads.
Georgia Bulldogs
There is talk about the SEC getting 14 teams in the NCAA tournament. That is ridiculous.
Georgia is the least likely of the 14 SEC teams to receive a bid. Georgia is 16-10, though the Bulldogs are just 4-9 in SEC play, having lost three straight. The Bulldogs are No. 39 in the NET but are just 3-7 away from Athens. They are 5-10 in Quad I and II contests, with seven of their setbacks by double-digits.
The only way the Bulldogs can earn an at-large bid is to win their next two games at No. 1-ranked Auburn (February 22) and at home against Florida (February 25). Of course, the Bulldogs would also have to have strong showings in their final three regular season games, earning at least one of those.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is in slightly better shape than Georgia, as the Sooners have a 16-9 record. However, the Sooners have lost four straight,t and nine of 12 setbacks have come in SEC play.
Oklahoma is No. 52 in the NET, though the Sooners are 6-5 away from Norman and 6-8 in Quad I and II contests. Five of their setbacks have been by double figures. However, OU has plenty of chances with upcoming games against Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Texas.
Dayton Flyers
Dayton has re-entered the conversation as a team deserving consideration for an at-large bid. Granted, the Flyers are on the far outside looking in regarding the NCAA Tournament bubble. But the Flyers, who began the season by winning 10 of their first 12 games, are 18-8 and in third place in the A-10. This includes a big neutral court win over UConn (85-67) in Hawaii.
If Dayton wins its remaining five regular-season games, including a game at VCU on the final day of A-10, it will be in good shape heading into the conference tournament. However, one more loss likely means the NIT for the Flyers unless they can win the A-10 Tournament.
Dayton is No. 74 in the Net rankings, the third best in the A10. The Flyers are 4-6 in Quad I and II contests, including 2-3 in Quad I games. Besides UConn, the Flyers’ other big victory is over Marquette.
Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara (17-10) is in a similar position as Dayton, as one more regular-season loss will likely end the Broncos’ hopes of securing an NCAA tournament bid. The Broncos are 7-7 on the road and 5-7 in Quad I and Quad II contests. However, they have three Quad III setbacks and losses to Arizona State, North Dakota State, Washington, and Loyola Marymount.
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova’s NCAA tournament fate may be determined over the next two games. The Wildcats (15-11) travel to UConn (17-8) on Tuesday and host Marquette (19-6). Victories in both games will give the Cats a significant boost in their chances of earning an NCAA berth, which coach Kyle Neptune has yet to garner since taking over for Jay Wright. The Wildcats won by two points at home against UConn but were defeated by Marquette by 13.
Villanova is tied for fifth in the Big East and is No. 53 in the NET. However, the Wildcats are just 3-6 away from home and have three bad losses—Columbia, St. Joseph’s, and Providence. On the positive side, Nova is 6-8 in Quad I and II contests.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas (15-10) has given itself at least a little bit of hope of earning an at-large bid due to its recent play. The Razorbacks have won four of their last seven, defeating Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas. They also played well against No. 4 Alabama and fell at No. 7 Texas A&M by eight points on Saturday.
Arkansas is No. 42 in NET and 4-6 away from Fayetteville. The Razorbacks have three Quad I victories and are 4-10 in Quad I and Quad II contests. They are unbeaten in Quad III and IV games, and only three of their setbacks have been by double digits. They have six regular season games, starting at No. 1 Auburn on February 1.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia’s (15-10) position may not be as perilous as Dayton’s, but the Mountaineers are on shaky ground. The Mountaineers have lost eight of their 13 games in 2025 and sit 10th in the Big 12 with a 6-8 conference record. They have six games left before the conference tournament and likely can’t go worse than .500 to have any shot for an at-large bid.
WVU is No. 44 in the Net rankings. On the plus side, the Mountaineers are 5-6 away from Morgantown and 7-10 in Quad I and II contests. They are unbeaten in eight Quad III and IV games, though seven of those losses have been by eight or more points.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State (15-11) is one of three teams tied for eighth in the Big Ten at 7-8. The Buckeyes, who have some tough games to close out conference play, are No. 30 in the NET. The Buckeyes are 5-6 away from Columbus and 7-11 in Quad I and II contests, including four Quad I victories. Five of their setbacks have been by three or fewer points.
Boise State Broncos
The Mountain West received a record six NCAA Tournament bids last season. The MWC won’t get that many this year, although they should get at least three bids — New Mexico, Utah State, and San Diego State should already be in. While SDSU (17-6) likely hasn’t locked up a spot yet, the Aztecs should secure their bid by the end of the regular season unless they collapse.
Boise State (17-8) is next in line. The Broncos are fifth in the MWC at 9-5 and No. 48 in the NET. The Broncos are 4-7 in Quad I and II games, including two Quad I wins, and 6-7 away from home. They also have an 11-point scoring margin but a Quad IV loss (Boston College). Three of their losses have been by double-digits, and three are by three or fewer points.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska (17-9) is in the best position of the teams listed here. The Cornhuskers are tied for eighth in the Big 10 at 7-8. The Huskers are No. 43 in the NET with a 7-6 record away from Lincoln. They are 9-8 in Quad I and Quad II games, including having six Quad I victories.
While Nebraska doesn’t have a terrible loss, four of its setbacks are by double figures. The Cornhuskers should be able to pick up at least three victories prior to the Big Ten tournament; if they don’t, they may be on shaky ground come Selection Sunday.
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