The NBA trade season is still probably at least a month away. While it is always fun to think about trades a team can make to improve, NBA personnel recently named the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors as the teams most likely to make a significant in-season trade, according to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.
Scouts and executives have tabbed Golden State and Houston as the two teams most likely to make a splash ahead of the Feb. 6 trade deadline. Both have a combination of young players and draft picks to make deals, whereas most of the other teams expected to be in that mix have one or neither at their disposal after the many big deals made in recent seasons.
Two Western Conference Teams Named Squads Most Likely To Make A Big Splash In-Season Deal, Will They?
Interestingly, Golden State and Houston were picked to make splashy in-season deals. First, it has to be defined what a “splashy” or “significant” trade actually means. Does it only mean the team trading for a star player, or does it include a team dealing away a star or significant player?
Either way, it is hard to tell right now if a “star” player will be available or who may become available. While it is easier to trade a star before the season, nobody saw the coming of the Karl-Anthony Towns, Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, Mikal Bridges, or possibly the Dejounte Murray deals.
Brooklyn, Portland, New Orleans, Chicago, Utah, and Washington have long been considered sellers. Getting Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Lauri Markkanen would be considered splashy. But would dealing for Cam Johnson, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Kyle Kuzma, DeAndre Ayton, or Walker Kessler also get the same acclaim?
But back to the teams that the NBA scouts and executives named as making a deal.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is off to its best start to a season since 2021-22, as the Warriors are 10-2 on the season. The Warriors are a 2024-25 NBA title contender, as they are deep and a top-4 team on both ends of the floor. They are also playing extremely well. That doesn’t mean the Warriors can’t improve or a major injury won’t pop up between now and the NBA’s Feb. 6 trade deadline.
Golden State, which goes 13 deep, and is a well-balanced squad that shoots the ball extremely well. The Warriors rank eighth in field goal percentage and second in 3-point percentage. The Dubs are also the top passing team in the league, though they are last in free throw percentage.
As good as the Warriors have been offensively, they have been just as stout defensively. The Warriors’ defense is ninth in scoring defense, second in field goal percentage, and first in 3-point percentage. The Dubs also do an excellent job of forcing turnovers, at over 16 a game.
Size and Defensive rebounding remains the Warriors biggest issues. The Warriors have a +3.2 rebound margin despite allowing opponents to grab 13 offensive rebounds a game, which is the third most in the league. Overall, they are 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage at 68.8% and permit the third most second-chance points (16.8) allowed.
Stephen Curry leads the way for the Dubs, who have a good mix of youngsters and have stayed relatively healthy thus far. Curry has missed three games, and De’Anthony Melton, who is currently day-to-day with an ACL injury, has missed six contests.
Most Attractive Youngsters
Jonathan Kuminga is arguably the most attractive Warriors youngsters. Kuminga has been long associated with trade rumors, and he didn’t receive an extension this offseason, so he will likely be a restricted free agent this offseason. The 22-year-old has struggled shooting the ball a little, though he has been pretty efficient. He averages 1.3 points per shot as he has improved from the 3-point
Kuminga averages 1.3 points per shot. He has improved his 3-point shooting and is getting to the free-throw line a little more frequently. He has scored in double figures in 10 of 12 games and has topped the 20-point mark three times.
Brandin Podziemski, the Warriors No. 19 selection in 2023, had an outstanding rookie season where he finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting last season. Podziemski, who has been subject to trade rumors, has really struggled in the early going, as he averages less than a point a shot.
Podziemski averages 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists this season. He doesn’t get to the free throw line and is shooting and is shooting under 40% from the field and just 20% from the 3-point line on four attempts a game. Still, the 21-year-old has scored in double-figures six times and had his third-year option picked up by the Warriors.
Moses Moody and Trayce Jackson-Davis
Moses Moody is still improving and could be on the verge of a career season. The 22-year-old wing, in his fourth NBA season, averages 9.6 points and 2.1 rebounds in 16.2 minutes over 12 appearances — which is slightly less than the 17 minutes he played last season. He makes a career-best 1.8 3-pointers with shooting splits of 48.1/45.8/71.4.
Unlike Kuminga, Moody received a rookie-scale extension. His three-year, $37.5 million contract doesn’t take effect until next season, but it includes a poison pill clause until July 1, 2025, making it hard to trade.
Trayce Jackson-Davis has to be one of the steals of the 2023 draft. Selected with the 57th overall pick, Jackson-Davis earned a regular spot in the rotation at the end of last season and has started all 12 games this year at the five. The 24-year-old has been highly productive despite being limited to 16 minutes and is under team control for the next two seasons.
Salary Cap Situation and Draft Picks
Golden State has 15 players on standard contracts, though Gui Santos‘ ($1.89 million) deal doesn’t guarantee it until January 10. Even if the Warriors waive Santos before his contract guarantees, the Dubs won’t have much money to sign any free agent for any length longer than a pair of 10-day contracts. They are currently $533,000 under being hard capped at the first apron.
Golden State owns all its first-round selections between 2025 and 2031, except for 2030. The 2030 selection is top-20 protected; otherwise, it will go to Washington. However, the Warriors only have four second-round picks.
Houston Rockets
Houston has been in rebuild mode the last five years, acquiring draft picks. The Rockets made a huge jump last year after acquiring Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks while still developing their youngsters. They finished 11th in the Western Conference with a 41-41 record, marking their first nonlosing campaign since 2019-20.
Houston has continued to build on last season’s success and is 9-4 on the season. It is the Rockets’ best start to a season since winning 11 of their first 14 games in 2019-20. Alperen Sengun has continued his upward trend, while Tari Eason and Amen Thompson are showing signs of their potential.
While not as deep as Golden State, Houston has a pretty talented roster. Eight players have played in 12 of the Rockets’ 13 games, and 11 have seen at least 10 minutes per appearance. Steven Adams has been the only player limited by injuries, as the Rockets remain cautious in his recovery.
Houston has some elite offensive talent, with six players averaging double figures, though the Rockets sometimes struggle with efficiency. The Rockets are 13th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, although they are scoring two points fewer than a season ago.
Houston is 27th in effective field goal percentage and 29th in true shooting percentage. The Rockets have struggled particularly from deep, some of which is related to shot selection. They lead the league in offensive rebounds at 14.8 a game, which they convert to the second-most second-chance points at 18.5.
Houston is making the sixth-fewest 3-pointers at 12 a game, though their 36.5 attempts a contest are basically the league average. VanVleet, who is an average 3-point shooter, is hitting his long-distance shots at just 30.2%—a career worst. Jalen Green is a high-volume three-point shooter, launching a career-high 8.8 attempts and connecting on 33%, which is around his career three-point shooting percentage.
Defense is where Houston is thriving. The Rockets are third in defensive rating, holding opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the league at 43.8%. The Rockets, one of five teams hauling in 52% of all available boards, are among the top rebounding teams. Their biggest issues defensively is 3-point defense, ranking 18th in 3-point percentage, and fouling.
Most Attractive Youngsters
While Houston has a few veterans, their most intriguing players are all under 24 years old. In the same piece as Bontempts reporting, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said that the Rockets have made it clear that Eason and Thompson are off limits.
Speaking of the Rockets and their potential place in the trade market, the message they are sending out is that they aren’t interested in trading much of their young core right now. Draft steal Tari Eason, for example, has been drawing attention for the past year but has been labeled off limits, sources said. Same for last year’s lottery pick Amen Thompson.
Sengun is just 22, but he has developed to become one of the best centers in the league. That leaves Green, Cam Whitmore, Reed Shephard, and Jabari Smith Jr. as options. Whitmore showed some potential last season, averaging 12.7 points. While Shephard has struggled this season, he was the third overall selection this past June.
Green and Smith Jr.
Green is a high-volume scorer who takes too many bad shots. The 23-year-old guard, who has yet to develop as a playmaker, has taken half his shots from deep and, as a result, is shooting a career-low 38.4% from the field. He is making a career-best 3.2 threes at a 33% clip.
Green has improved his finishing around the rim, and there is potential for his 3-point percentage to go up if he is able to hit more of his corner treys—he makes 34.8% from the corners for his career. He has improved as a defender, though he is a little slow on his feet and doesn’t recover well on kickouts. Opponents have shot 47% from the field over the last three seasons, with Green as the primary defender.
Green is in the final year of his rookie contract. His three-year, $105.3 million contract extension starts next season.
Smith took a step forward in his development in year two. While his numbers were similar to his rookie campaign, he shot and rebounded the ball better. Like Green, the 21-year-old forward has struggled with shot selection.
Smith has played fewer minutes a game than he has the first two years. However, that may be due to the Rockets’ being deeper and better. The Rockets are outscoring opponents by 6.4 points thus far this season compared to 1.1 last year.
Despite playing less, Smith is putting up similar numbers to his career averages. The 6-11 forward is at his best in the mid-range and within, particularly inside 10 feet of the hoop. He has improved the last two seasons on the defensive end, particularly defending the 3-point line.
Salary Cap Situation and Draft Picks
Houston has an open roster spot and is $8 million below the tax line. The Rockets also are over $15 million from being hard-capped at the first apron.
Houston has several trade swaps over the next three seasons. The Rockets also have five first-round selections between 2028 and 2031 and three second-round picks from 2025 to 2027.
Last Word
Golden State and Houston should absolutely explore improving their teams in any available way. That doesn’t mean that either team should pull the trigger on a major deal this year unless they are absolutely sure that it will improve their chances of winning or contending for an NBA title. A major injury could also affect their decision. But again, if the teams are 100% sure about the deal, they shouldn’t make it.
The Warriors have a shorter window due to their aging veterans, but they are not desperate. Plus, as of right now, Golden State is demonstrating that they are definitely going to be a significant factor, at least in the Western Conference. The Warriors are also in a slightly different situation than the Rockets, as they have a need (size) and a valuable trade chip in Kuminga, who they are not sure is part of their future.
So, if a star becomes available and a deal makes sense and costs the Warriors just Kuminga as the major piece and future draft picks, go for it.
As far as Houston goes, it appears they are satisfied with staying the course at this point. Despite the good start, the Rockets are not surefire contenders in a tough Western Conference.
“Nothing is written in granite in the NBA,” Windhorst said. “Priorities shift and there are always forms of negotiation happening, but Houston likes its hand. For now.”
In my opinion, Oklahoma City, due to their injuries upfront, is the team that should look to make a major move. The Thunder have some nice young trade chips and still have a bunch of trade capital that they have built over the years.
