Are the Dallas Mavericks on the verge of taking a step back?
Dallas came into the 2024-25 season with high expectations after surprisingly reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011. Last night, the Mavericks dropped their fourth straight game with a 115-113 road setback to the lowly Utah Jazz. While it is still very early in the season, the Western Conference projects to be extremely tough this year, and the Mavericks have plenty of issues.
Also, frustration is setting in, though the Mavs still have hope of turning things around.
“(The players) have things that go on outside of the arena, and that’s always monitored (but) those things aren’t shared publicly,” coach Jason Kidd told Joe Vardon of The Athletic. “This has been an emotional week, starting in Denver, having an opportunity to win there, and just the buildup of the game against Golden State with Klay [Thompson]. We could be a little bit more concerned of not just the buildup, but what the effects are. You know, yesterday and today, just the mental fatigue, the physical fatigue. So we’ve got to be cautious of that because we understand the league isn’t going to pause the games.”
Are The Reigning NBA Western Conference Champions In Real Trouble Of Missing The 2024-25 Playoffs?
Dallas won 50 games for the second time in three years under Kidd last season, claiming its first full-season division crown since 2019-20—the Mavericks won the Northwest division in 2020-21. Then, in the offseason, the Mavericks seemingly improved by acquiring Thompson and Naji Marshall and adding backcourt depth with the additions of Quentin Grimes and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Granted, the Mavs’ acquisition of Grimes had more to do with their desire to purge Tim Hardaway Jr. from the roster, but the move has backfired thus far. The Mavericks also have been shorthanded with Dante Exum, who was slated to be the Mavs’ third guard, missing the first few months of the season. PJ Washington, Maxi Kleber, and Dereck Lively II have missed four or more games.
Dallas is a good shooting team that has struggled to shoot the ball a little, specifically from deep. The Mavericks are eighth in the NBA in shooting percentage (48%), 12th in effective field goal percentage, and 14th in true shooting percentage. The Mavs are ninth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Also, they have a +3.0 point scoring differential on the season.
“Still trying to figure it out, man,” Marshall said about the Mavs’ tough start after the Utah loss. “Stuff happens, and obviously it didn’t go in our direction but it happens, man. All we can do is get better from here.”
“There’s a lot of hope, but we’ve got to get better, Luka Doncic, who is shooting just 42.8% from the field and 32% from the 3-point line, added.
New Starting Lineup
Kidd trudged out a different starting lineup for Dallas’ game against Utah. It is his third starting lineup of the season. Granted, part of the change was necessary as Kyrie Irving sat out with a shoulder injury. But Kidd also inserted Lively and Maxi Kleber with the first unit for the first time.
Grimes and Kleber each received an apparent spot start. Grimes started at the two for Irving, with Doncic sliding over to the one. The 24-year-old guard turned in his best game in his first start of the campaign, tallying 15 points on 5 of 9 shooting — including 3 of 5 from the 3-point line — while also grabbing five boards in 36 minutes. He added five assists, four rebounds, and a steal in 36 minutes with a +3 rating.
Kleber started his third game back after missing the previous seven with a hamstring injury. With Kleber starting at the four, Marshall—who had started the last four contests in place of Washington—once again came off the bench.
Still, Marshall played nearly twice as many minutes as Kleber against the Jazz and was much more productive. Marshall scored 19 points, marking the third game he has reached double-figures in the past five, doled out four assists, and came up with three steals. Meanwhile, Kleber had three points on 1 of 2 shooting, with both attempts from the 3-point line.
Once Washington returns to action, he will be the unquestioned starting power forward. The more intriguing question is whether Kidd will go back to Gafford or keep Lively with the first unit.
Lively and Gafford Partnership
Lively also started for the first time this season against the Jazz. Not sure if this is going to be a permanent move, but my guess is it will be, at least for the short run.
Lively, who started 42 games last season for the Mavs a year ago, totaled five points, two rebounds, one assist, and four blocks. He made both of his shots from the field and was a +11 plus in plus/minus rating, though he was limited to 17 minutes due to foul trouble.
Lively started in place of Daniel Gafford. While Gafford played more minutes than Lively against Utah, due to the youngsters’ foul trouble, Lively is playing over 22 minutes a contest compared to Gafford’s nearly 21. Gafford has played in all 12 games for the Mavs this season.
Gafford is having a career season. The 26-year-old big scored in double-figures for the fifth straight game and seventh time in the last seven against the Jazz, tallying 10 points, five boards, and two blocks in 19 minutes. But the Mavericks were outscored by 19 points when he was on the floor.
Is Gafford or Lively Better In The Starting Unit?
Over the last two seasons, Dallas has been 23-20 in games, while Lively has started at center and 23-10, with Gafford in the starting unit. Both players are limited offensively and thrive on the defensive end as well as the glass. Lively will likely continue to start because the Mavs are outscoring their opponents by a team-best 4.4 points a game when he is out on the floor compared to being outscored by 1.6 points while Gafford is on the court.
The duo will continue to split time regardless of who ultimately starts at center, Leaving Dwight Powell with mop-up duty. Powell has played well in limited time, but with Lively and Gafford in front of him, there are just not many minutes for the 33-year-old.
Injury Update Versus Spurs
The Doncic, Grimes, Thompson, Kleber, and Lively starting lineup appears to be a one-off. Irving is off Saturday’s injury report for the Mavericks contest against San Antonio.
However, Doncic is listed as probable, as he is dealing with a lingering knee issue. While Doncic is expected to suit up against the Spurs, Washington is doubtful, so he will likely miss his sixth straight with a right knee sprain contest, per Mike Curtis of the Dallas Morning News.
If Washington does remain out, expect Kidd to pair Kleber and Lively with the first unit again tonight against San Antonio.
“I thought they did well,” Kidd told Eddie Sefko of Mavs.com said of the new lineup. “D-Live got in foul trouble. That’s something we’ll look at tape to see how he can get better. But I thought that group gave us some energy. We got off to a good start.”
“It’s fluid. Just looking at the energy, I thought the group did a great job. We won the first quarter. But as we get healthy, we’ll look at it again, and there could be a change. Most likely, there will be a change when P.J. comes back.”
Slow Starts
A major problem for Dallas has been slow starts. While the Mavericks outscored the Jazz (28-27) in the opening quarter on Thursday night, the Mavs have struggled on both ends of the floor in the first frame.
Dallas is 22nd in scoring at 26.6 points a game over the first 12 minutes. The Mavericks’ offense ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in shooting percentage (45.1%), 28th in 3-pointers (2.5), and 29th in 3-point percentage (28.3%) during the opening period. Additionally, the Mavs are 23rd in the first quarter in point differential at -2.4
Their slow starts have been magnified in their losses. The Mavericks are averaging roughly the same amount of points (26.6) a contest in the opening 12 minutes. While they are shooting slightly worse during losses than their season average, the Mavs opening quarter has been horrendous.
In their setbacks, the Mavs are permitting 32.7 points in the opening period, which is about four more than their season average. They are allowing their opponents to shoot 50% from the field and 48% from the 3-point line in the first quarter. Their 6.7-point first-period differential in their losses is the seventh-highest.
“For whatever reason, we get off to a slow start,” Kidd previously told Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News about the Mavs slow starts. “It’s got to be addressed. We’ve talked about it. There’s got to be action. There’s got to be some energy.
Rebounding
Despite having a good size at the five, players who thrive on the glass, and Doncic, the Mavs are not a good rebounding team. They are collecting 47.5% of all available rebounds this season, the fifth-worst percentage in the league. Their biggest problem has been on the defensive end, where they have the fifth-worst percentage at 68.4%.
Despite their defensive rebounding issues, the Mavs have done a pretty good job limiting their opponents’ second-chance opportunities. The Mavs are actually outscoring their opponents in second-chance points at 13.8-to-13.7 despite being outboarded by two per game on the offensive glass.
More specifically, Dallas is being outrebounded 46.1-to-42.7. The Mavericks have been outrebounded in nine of the first 12 games, including five or the last six contests. The Mavs are 1-5 in their previous six games and have lost six of the nine times they have been outrebounded.
“The bottom line is that they simply are giving up too many extra possessions to opponents,” wrote Sefko. “That makes it tough, no matter how good you are offensively. ”
Winning Close Games
While Dallas has had issues starting the game, finishing games has also been a problem. The Mavericks are outscoring their opponents by 1.2 points a game in the fourth quarter (27.9—to-26.7), though they have struggled in clutch situations. The Mavs are 0-4 in games decided by 3 points or less and are a league-worst 1-6 in Clutch situations (games within five points with five minutes remaining). They are being outscored by 1.7 points in the last five minutes of those seven contests, the eighth worst in the NBA.
“I think poise, calmness is a big thing, and we’re not there yet,” Kidd said about the Mavs close game struggles. “There’s no better way to go through it than being able to play close games against your opponent and learn from your mistakes, but also learn from being able to win games. Last year, we were able to do that. This year with this new group, we’ve been in a place of playing close games. We’ve just come up short. And it’s the small details.”
