Brooklyn Nets guard Dennis Schroder isn’t interested in losing games just to joust for draft position. A process known as “tanking,” it’s a common method for teams who want to expedite the rebuilding process. However, it’s not an exact science, and many teams will go through several frustrating seasons before seeing the type of returns they want.
As a 12-year NBA veteran who has played for seven teams, Schroder knows that as well as anybody.
Nets Leader Dennis Schroder Is Not All-In On Rebuild For Good Reason
“For me, rebuilding, I’ve seen a stat the last 15 years whoever did the rebuilding stuff and wanted to lose, nobody got anything out of it,” Schroder says, per the New York Post’s Brian Lewis. “At the end of the day, we can rebuild having young guys… But we still want to win in the process, going through it. We still want to win and still want to be a playoff team if we can.”
“That should be the goal for everybody who’s playing in the league or whoever plays basketball, making the playoffs,” he continues. And even though we’re young, we’ve got a good mix. … The young guys are buying into (a playoff mindset)… And it’s something great we want to accomplish that we compete every single game…”
Metadata Backs Him Up
It’s unclear what stat Schroder was referencing.
A few individuals have attempted to quantify the success of a rebuild longitudinally, but typically within the bounds of three to five years. Some have taken a more holistic approach. FR Analytics data analysts Hugo Mayca and Damien Blagojevic took a more holistic approach, going back to 2004 to see how long it took a team to go from “tanking” to a “contender.”
Here’s an example of a #simulation. You can see the states a #NBA team would go through to rise from the bottom of the standings to becoming a contender over the years. pic.twitter.com/tbw1EvToWj
— Hugo Mayca (@fr_analytics) October 21, 2024
Their study shows that it takes a team about 10 years to make the leap.
Based on that metadata, one could argue that Schroder is right to believe that rebuilding teams don’t have much to show for their efforts, at least for a while.
Case-By-Case Analysis Does Too
Case-by-case analysis tends to supports Schroder’s suggestion as well.
Since they traded Hall of Fame guard Chauncey Billups to the Denver Nuggets in 2008-09, the Detroit Pistons have been .500 or in 14 of the last 15 seasons. In 2023-24, they lost 68 games, a franchise record.
After trading Hall of Fame guard Allen Iverson to the Denver Nuggets in 2006-07, the Philadelphia 76ers were .500 or below in nine of the next 10 seasons. In their 76 year history, they’ve only had six seasons losing or more 60 games and half of them occurred during the 2010s.
In 2020, the Washington Wizards moved on from John Wall. Likely to have his jersey retired by the Wizards, Wall is their all-time leader in assists and steals, and ranks fourth in franchise history in points. Washington hasn’t had a winning season since 2018-19, the last time he took the court for them.
The San Antonio Spurs have had a losing record in the last six seasons as well, which coincides with seven-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge’s last healthy season. Aldridge is top-five in Portland Trail Blazers history in points (3rd), blocks (4th), and rebounds (1st). He ranks top-10 in Spurs history in points per game (19.5) and blocks per game (1.3).
These aren’t the only teams that have been in rebuild mode since then. Nonetheless, this helps to underscore just how difficult it is to go from the bottom to the top.
Who Are The Nets (Really) Replacing?
The Nets’ rebuild didn’t really start after they traded Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks, though he has the seventh-highest scoring average (21.2 points per game) in franchise history. They were put in that state after trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the span of a week.
Durant and Irving rank second (29.0) and fourth (27.1) in Nets history in points per game, respectively. Though Irving’s personal beliefs led to an untenable situation there, there’s no denying that he was force to be reckoned with individually and that he and Durant are both Hall of Fame talents. Had they remained in Brooklyn, they would’ve kept the Nets in playoff contention.
It’s not a coincidence that Irving, already an NBA champion, helped lead the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals just a few months ago. Durant, a two-time NBA Finals MVP, is on a bonafide championship-contender in Phoenix. Meanwhile, with Bridges, Brooklyn was 44-65.
So, it’s not Bridges that they have to replace, but Durant and Irving. An exceptional shot-maker, Cam Thomas is doing his best Irving impression, but his scoring average over the past two seasons (22.7) is closer to Bridges’ than Irving’s. If he’s really in their future plans, he probably needs help that Schroder, nor Cameron Johnson, nor Nic Claxton can provide.
Reasons To Be Hopeful
With their stockpile of draft picks, the Nets may be able to locate that caliber of player quicker than another rebuilding team could. The 2025 NBA Draft has multiple star prospects. The 2026 NBA Draft will be headlined by what could be a generational talent and he’s not the only head-turner in his class.
They could also use their picks to target a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jimmy Butler.
Both Antetokounmpo and Butler have been linked to the Nets over the past few months, appearing to have genuine interest in joining the franchise. Though the idea may seem far-fetched, stars like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have shown that some players want to create history in a place that doesn’t have much of it. Irving signed with the Nets for that same reason, with the franchise not achieving much of consequence after moving from New Jersey to Brooklyn.
