The 2024-2025 NCAA men’s college basketball season is almost upon us. Each conference’s media day(s) has wrapped up. We know the preseason polls and honors. With that comes a conversation about which teams that aren’t at the top could win their conference. So let’s talk about a sleeper conference contender in each of the 32 Division I basketball conferences.. I’ll have a few soft rules for this. For the lower conferences, the team I choose has to be outside of the top 2 in the conference’s preseason poll. In the big conferences the team I choose will be picked a little farther back. There were also multiple cases, such as in the MAC, where I didn’t pick a higher team as a sleeper because it was so close at the top and they really didn’t meet the definition of a sleeper. Finally, I didn’t go with any teams (Such as St. Thomas and Le Moyne.) that are ineligible for this year’s NCAA Tournament.
And with that, let’s get into the sleepers.
Sleeper Contender In Each Men’s Basketball Conference
America East
Unsurprisingly Vermont is once again the unanimous pick to win the Am East this year. The conference runs through Burlington. Phil Martelli Jr.’s Bryant Bulldogs will try to put a stop to that (in case you’re wondering yes, he is the son of the legendary Phil Martelli Sr.). The team did lose a lot, but what they return and brought in makes for a good sleeper in the Am East. Earl Timberlake is a two-time All-Conference member and is on this year’s preseason team too. The super senior averaged 14.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game last season and should be even better this year. The former Miami (FL.) and Memphis transfer will be in contention for Am East POTY. Former St. John’s transfer Rafael Pinzon returns too.
American
Former Oral Roberts head coach Paul Mills has been tasked with rebuilding a Wichita State program that dominated the 2010s and has mostly struggled since joining the AAC. His first year didn’t go well record-wise, as the Shockers had a losing record for the first time since Gregg Marshall’s first year in 2007-08. But he’s a really good coach and has built a good foundation. Harlond Beverly, a former top 70 recruit who spent years at Miami, returns and figures to be one of the top options on this squad. Xavier Bell returns too. Mills brought in a trio of intriguing transfers. A.J. McGinnis (Lipscomb) and Corey Washington (Saint Peter’s) both averaged double figures last season (15.9 and 13.2 respectively), and Justin Mills comes in from Georgia where he was a solid contributor.
A-10
Could this be the year that the Atlantic 10 returns? Could it become a multi-bid league again? I hope and think so. There are a bunch of good teams in this conference. If the teams make the most of the opportunities they’re given (unlike the last few years) then the A-10 will get multiple bids. But first, a sleeper to potentially win the conference.
Five different teams received first-place votes in the preseason poll. George Mason wasn’t one of them but it’s a team that I like. Darius Maddox returns after averaging 14 points per game last season. Jalen Haynes averaged 14.6 per game two years ago at East Tennessee State and redshirted at GMU last year. Incoming transfer K.D. Johnson has been a big contributor at both Georgia and Auburn and will play a big role this season for the Patriots. I am also a big fan of head coach Tony Skinn heading into his second year at the helm. While his Patriots squad is a lot different than last year, if it can replicate the defensive prowess (George Mason only gave up 65.9 PPG last year, 25th best in the nation), then there is a ton of potential for this team.
ACC
ACC fans aren’t going to like hearing this, but this will be another overall down year for the ACC. However, as usual, there will probably be multiple teams that go deep in the Big Dance. One team that I like as a sleeper to compete in the conference, and to bounce back from a very disappointing year, is Miami. The Hurricanes lost a few key pieces, but what it brings back and gains could make the team better than before. Nijel Pack is back and was named to the preseason All-ACC First Team. A group of high-impact transfers comes in. Jalen Blackmon averaged 21.3 PPG for Stetson a year ago and led the Hatters to the Dance. Lynn Kidd (Virginia Tech) & Brandon Johnson (ECU) both played really well last year. Head coach Jim Larrañaga brought is a good recruiting class, headlined by five-star top 10 recruit Jalil Bethea.
Also, look out for Louisville, with a completely new roster and a significantly better coach in Pat Kelsey, the Cardinals could be “back” in a hurry.
ASUN
Most people know Florida Gulf Coast from when Dunk City made their Sweet Sixteen run in 2013. These days it’s a bit different. Pat Chambers hasn’t had a great first two years as the head coach of the Eagles despite having talent on the roster. However, there is an opportunity this season. Lipscomb is the large favorite to win the Atlantic Sun, but after that the conference is wide open. FGCU gets back Keeshawn Kellman, who was a unanimous selection for the Preseason All-ASUN team and could be in the running for conference player of the year. Delaware State transfer Jevin Muniz averaged 14.9 points per game last year for the Hornets and will have a big role alongside Kellman and senior Dallion Johnson.
Big 12
The Big 12 is still filled with insanely talented teams. Five Big 12 teams are ranked in the top 10 of the AP Preseason Top 25 Poll, six are ranked in total, and four more received votes. The “sleeper” I chose here is Kansas State. Jerome Tang’s squad underwent a lot of roster turnover, with only 16.7% of its minutes returning. But the group of transfers that Tang brought in is really good. Coleman Hawkins was dominant on both ends of the floor in his four years at Illinois. He was named to the Preseason All-Big 12 Second Team. Dug McDaniel took a big step forward, especially on offense, as a sophomore last year at Michigan, averaging 16.3 PPG. Achor Achor was a ton of fun to watch and was a key part of Samford’s tournament team.
Big East
The first two years of Kyle Neptune’s tenure at Villanova have been disastrous. The team has missed the tournament in both seasons. Neptune’s seat is likely white hot. This is a make-or-break season. The Wildcats were picked to finish 7th in the yet again loaded Big East. But if ‘Nova can get its stuff together then it can outperform those expectations. Eric Dixon should dominate. Jordan Longino is now a senior and has a chance to make a big jump and live up to the hype that was around him coming out of high school as a top-50 recruit. Adding Wooga Poplar from the transfer portal was a massive addition. Nova also brought in a pair of double-digit scoring guards from across town in Jhamir Brickus (La Salle) & Tyler Perkins (Penn). Fresno State transfer Enoch Boakye and top 100 recruit freshman Matthew Hodge will need to step up to help with the size of this team.
Additionally, look out for Georgetown. The Hoyas can’t win the conference, but if all the new players can gel, the Hoyas can finish a lot higher than their projected 9th.
Big Sky
The top of the Big Sky is very interesting. Montana and Montana State are the top two. After that, there are two more. I won’t consider Weber State a sleeper for a few reasons. Therefore I will go with Northern Colorado. 5th-year head coach Steve Smiley’s tenure has been a roller coaster. His first and third years were bad, but his second and fourth years were good. That trend would suggest that this year will be a bad one. But I think the Bears can shake that off. Last year’s team finished tied for second in the conference and was top 50 nationally in scoring average. Unfortunately, they lost four of their top five scorers. At least Brock Wisne is still in Greeley. Coach Smiley brought in two transfers who should have a big impact immediately and will help offset the losses. Guards Quinn Denker and Taeshaud Jackson II both averaged double figures in scoring last season at Idaho and VMI respectively. Jackson II even averaged a double-double with 10.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per game last year for the Keydets.
Big South
It feels a bit odd to call a team that won the conference tournament title last year a sleeper, but Longwood lost over 60% of the minutes from that team. They finished the regular season in a three-way tie for fifth place anyway. Last season Michael Christmas was a full-time starter for the first time in his collegiate career and he did not disappoint. He averaged 11.3 PPG and 6.9 RPG. With the other three of the Lancers’ top four scorers gone, this is his team now. There is a good amount of potential in the incoming transfers. D.J. Jefferson comes over from Tennessee, Angelo Brizzi from Davidson and before that Villanova, and Colby Garland was a solid contributor off the bench for Drake last year as a true freshman.
Big Ten
Another loaded conference is, of course, the Big Ten. No team in the conference starts this season lower than 76th in KenPom or 74th in T-Rank/Torvik. Michigan is a team that could end up being criminally underrated. The Wolverines were awful a year ago, which is why it isn’t a bad thing that there was a lot of roster turnover. They hired Dusty May as the new head coach, and he has already started to turn this program back around. He brought center Vladislav Goldin with him from FAU, who was a key part of the Owls’ Final Four run two years ago. Overall the transfer class that May brought in is one of the better ones. Former Yale center Danny Wolf will form an awesome one-two punch with Vlad Goldin. Roddy Gayle Jr. did the forbidden and transferred from Ohio State to Michigan (I’m sure he’ll get a warm welcome in Columbus on February 16th, right?). Senior Nimari Burnett returns and could take a step forward now that he’s one of the main options.
Big West
UC Irvine continues to run this conference almost uninterrupted. The top of the league should be good with the Anteaters, UCSB retooling, and UC San Diego finally eligible for the NCAA Tournament. UC Riverside is a team that could disrupt the top of the conference. Barrington Hargress was great last season as a freshman and with that earned Big West Freshman of the Year honors. The guard averaged 12.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists last year. He and Isaiah Moses, a double-figure scorer who is also back, both earned All-Big West Honorable Mention honors. Fellow starter Nate Pickens returns as well to a Highlanders program that has never made the NCAA Tournament.
CAA
Hofstra lost a lot, but Speedy Claxton is a really good coach. He has won 20+ games in each of his first three years in Hempstead, and that’s after taking over a team that won just 13 games the year before. Belarus native German Plotnikov had a good first two years given his role and could be poised for a big jump this year. Canisius transfer TJ Gadsen should have a big role. He is just one of an intriguing group of transfers that Claxton brought in. Two of them, Cruz Davis (St. John’s) & Jaquan Sanders (Seton Hall), have valuable experience playing in the Big East. If Irish seven-footer Silas Sunday could take a step forward that would really help the Pride with their size.
C-USA
Calling Liberty a sleeper feels weird considering how good it usually is. But, last year’s 18-14 record was the first time the team didn’t win 20+ in a season since head coach Ritchie McKay’s first year in 2015-2016. That could be attributed to being in a new conference. Additionally, they were without Darius McGhee, as he graduated after averaging 22.8 points per game the year before. Despite the fact that the Flames were picked to finish tied for 5th in this year’s C-USA’s preseason poll, I do like its roster as well as their chances to compete for the conference title. They were one of the five teams to receive a first-place vote. The returning roster led by Kaden Metheny and Zach Cleveland is good. I’m very intrigued by the transfer class Liberty brought in. Jayvon Maughmer (Cedarville) and Taelon Peter (Arkansas Tech) are a pair of Divison II transfers that could be major contributors if they can make the jump. Spaniard Owen Aquino could also have a big role as he transfers in from Eastern Florida State College.
Horizon League
I had a hard time choosing a “sleeper” in the Horizon League because 6 teams got first-place votes, five of which got at least four of them. But I’m going to go with Wright State. Scott Nagy left to take over the program at Southern Illinois. However, I have full confidence in WSU’s new head coach Clint Sargent. Sargent played for Nagy at South Dakota State and has been on Nagy’s staffs since 2013. The Raiders were fourth in the country last year in scoring offense. A few players from that squad are gone, but preseason Horizon League Player of the Year Brandon Noel as well as Alex Huibregtse both return. The only concern for this team is that its defense will need to be significantly better, as last year it ranked 356th out of 362.
Ivy League
Brian Earl was tasked with rebuilding Cornell’s basketball program, and he succeeded. The team was really good last year, finishing 16th in the country in scoring and getting its first 20-win season since 2010. Earl left for William & Mary and a few players are gone too. But the good news is that the returning group is really good. Last year’s Big Red squad was super deep, so it should be able to withstand the losses. Nazir Williams was the Big Red’s second-leading scorer a year ago and should assume the top role this year. New head coach Jon Jacques has been an assistant with the program since 2013, so he knows Cornell well.
MAAC
The MAAC is another one of my personal favorite conferences. Merrimack is being severely underestimated in its first year in the MAAC. Joe Gallo is a great coach and I know that he is hungry to make the NCAA Tournament. His Merrimack teams have played well in each of their first five years in Divison I (as members of the NEC) but weren’t eligible for the Big Dance until last year. Now they’re in a new conference and underdogs and it is time to make noise. Sophomore Adam “Budd” Clark was named to the Preseason All-MAAC First Team. Devon Savage is another double-figure scorer who returns for the Warriors. The Warriors also bring in a trio of talented transfers from non-DI schools, Matt Becht (DII Southern New Hampshire), Sean Trumper (DII Franklin Pierce), and David Murray (DIII Connecticut College Camels). All three of them averaged over 16 PPG last season at their respective schools.
MAC
There is really a “Big 4” of teams that run the MAC in Ohio, Akron, Kent State, & Toledo. But if any of the other eight teams could contend with them this year, it might be Miami (OH.). The Redhawks have not had a winning season since 2009. But former Xavier head coach Travis Steele has improved the team in his first two years at the helm. The team lost its top three scorers from last year, but there is a bunch of potential with Steele leading them. The Redhawks are a very young team, and the returning sophomores will need to take some steps forward. There is an interesting group of transfers coming in too. Two of them are from high-major programs in Antwone Woolfolk (Rutgers) and Kam Craft (Xavier). The latter was a four-star prospect ranked 76th in his class.
MEAC
I’ll go with Morgan State. The Bears have only one winning season in the last eleven years. However, they could be a sneaky team in the MEAC this season. Morgan State was hurt by inconsistent play and especially injuries last season. Multiple players, including the team’s leading scorer and All-Conference guard Wynston Tabbs, missed time due to injuries. But if the Bears can stay healthy they could be a threat to Howard at the top of the MEAC. 76% of the Bears’ minutes return from last year. Included in that are Tabbs and Will Thomas, both of whom were named to the Preseason All-MEAC First Team.
MVC
Everyone loves the Missouri Valley Conference. This year the middle of the conference will be really unpredictable, given that so much teams lost so much in terms of both players and coaches during the offseason. With all the uncertainty I’ll go with Illinois State here. The metrics don’t like them but the conference preseason poll does. The Redbirds were terrible offensively last year but pretty good on defense. Super senior Malachi Poindexter was named to the Preseason All-MVC Second Team. Johnny Kinziger was named to the First Team. A member of the All-MVC freshman team a year ago, he will have a much bigger role as a sophomore and will have to take a step forward.
Mountain West
It seems quite silly of the people for vote for the Preseason Mountain West poll to put Utah State down in 6th. Last year the Aggies were picked to finish 9th after losing its head coach and pretty much the entire roster. All the team did was end up winning the MWC regular season title. Utah State has once again lost its coach and a lot of players, but this year the team returns some key contributors. Ian Martinez could be in the conversation for conference Player of the Year. He is a former top 70 recruit who has played at both Utah and Maryland before coming to Logan. The super senior was very good last year, and he should excel now that he’s the number one option. Mason Falslev coming back after a great freshman campaign is big. Jerrod Calhoun has a good setup to begin his tenure in Logan. The former Youngstown State head coach brought that program success it hadn’t seen before. Before Calhoun got there the Penguins had only had one 20-win season in its DI history (since 1981). He led them to two straight 20-win seasons in the last two years.
NEC
I’ll say Chicago State for fun. The Cougars join the Northeast Conference after two years as an independent. Which is funny considering just three years ago the program was in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC). New head coach Scott Spinelli has over two decades of experience as an assistant coach. Hopefully he can get some of these players to take a step forward, as Chi State lost its top three scorers from a year ago. It’s worth noting that the team picked to finish first in the NEC Preseason Poll has gone on to win the conference just three times in the last twenty-five years. That’s bad news for Wagner and Central Connecticut State, who are tied atop the preseason poll.
OVC
After the top, the rest of the Ohio Valley is pretty open. I’ll go with Tennessee State as a potential sleeper. This team is tough to predict. Almost all of last year’s team is gone, so the Tigers will be relying almost entirely upon transfers. Justus Jackson was a solid contributor to OVC rival UT-Martin, averaging 7 points per game mostly off the bench. Brandon Weston comes down from Rhode Island after starting his collegiate career in the Big East at Seton Hall. Ahmir Langlais became a starter last season at SC-Upstate and took advantage of the opportunity. The transfers will need to gel for this team to compete.
Patriot League
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Colgate is once again the extremely heavy favorite to win the Patriot League. Bucknell in 2018 was the last team other than Colgate to win the Patriot League title. Could they be the squad to finally dethrone the Raiders? The potential is there. I really like the center-point guard duo of Noah Williamson and Elvin Edmonds IV. The two of them will be the leaders of the Bison this season. Both of them also will contend for All-Confernce honors at the end of the year. Bucknell as a whole returns 78.3% of its minutes from last season. If the team can improve under second-year head coach John Griffin III (he was an assistant under Nathan Davis when the Bison made two straight NCAA Tournament appearances).
SEC
There will be chaos in the SEC this year. One sleeper team that could emerge from it is Florida. Todd Golden has turned this program in his first two years after coming from the West Coast and San Fran. Walter Clayton Jr. returns and could be even better than last season. If he does play that well then the Preseason All-SEC guard could challenge for conference Player of the Year. Australian big man Alex Condon was good off the bench for the Gators last year as a free freshman and looks poised to take a big step forward as a sophomore. The Gators brought in one of the most high-profile players in the transfer portal in former Florida Atlantic combo guard Alijah Martin.
SOCON
Year in and year out the SOCON is one of the most fun mid-major conferences in college basketball. This year will be no different. Wofford was picked to finish 4th in the conference, and the team really intrigues me. In today’s age teams very rarely return all of their major contributors, but that’s exactly what Dwight Perry’s squad did. Corey Tripp averaged 15.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.4 APG for the Terriers and Kyler Filewich averaged 9.4/8.8/3.4 per game. Both of them were named to the preseason All-Conference team. The Terriers also got a nice addition from the transfer portal in former SC Upstate guard Justin Bailey. Also, the preseason metrics are big fans of Wofford. The Terriers are first among SOCON teams in KenPom and second in T-Rank/Torvik.
Southland
McNeese State looks awesome again. Stephen F. Austin returns to the conference it used to dominate after three years in the WAC. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was picked to finish fourth in the Southland this year. Last season in Jim Shaw’s first year as the head coach of the Islanders they again won 20+ games and finished second in the Southland. Despite the fact that it returned its top 3 scorers and 4 of its top 4 the Islanders were only picked to finish fourth in the Southland this year. It’s worth noting that Shaw’s squad was the only Southland team to beat McNeese State last season.
I am intrigued by Nicholls State, but didn’t choose them because they got three first-place votes.
SWAC
I think Alabama State could be very underrated in the SWAC. Now, the Hornets haven’t had a winning season since 2014-15 and five of the last nine seasons have resulted in single-digit wins. But this year’s roster intrigues me. T.J. Madlock earned All-SWAC honors last season and should be just as could this year. His backcourt partner CJ Hines also returns. The two of them could be deadly in the SWAC in their second year together. The x-factor for this team is former Georgetown transfer D’Ante Bass. Bass was awesome in the first two games of last season for the Hornets before suffering a season-ending knee injury. He played well in ASU’s exhibition game against John Melvin Christian, scoring 8 points and grabbing 9 rebounds in just 12 minutes.
Summit League
I would write about St. Thomas here, but they are unfortunately still ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to the transitional period from moving all the way up from Division III to Division I. So instead I’ll go with North Dakota. Last year was the first winning season for the program since joining The Summit League. Paul Sather has continued to improve the team. While the team did lose two major contributors who transferred to high-major schools, what it still has is good. Treysen Eaglestaff and Amar Kuljuhovic were both named to the preseason All-Summit League First Team. The Fighting Hawks also bring in an intriguing JUCO transfer in Dariyus Woodson from Tyler Junior College in Texas.
Sun Belt
We’ve made it to the “Fun Belt” and true to that nickname the conference should be fun this year. Appalachian State had a really good team last year, and it’s a real shame that we didn’t get to see it in the NCAA Tournament. Only 22.9% of the minutes from that team return. So it makes sense that the Mountaineers were picked to finish sixth in the SBC this year. The good thing though is that Myles Tate and CJ Huntley return. Both will have increased roles and should be up to the task. App brings in a pair of community college transfers in Jamil Muttilib (Kilgore College) and Benjamin Ezeagu (Hill College). Muttilib averaged 19.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game last season. Canada native Ezeague averaged 12.8 PPG & 6.1 RPG.
Also, if you haven’t seen it yet, the Sun Belt’s new conference tournament bracket format is ridiculous and I love it.
The new Sun Belt basketball tournament bracket is hilarious and awesome. pic.twitter.com/qJ6ae3HcCq
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) October 31, 2024
WCC
I’m a fan of Herb Sendek’s Santa Clara team. Under his direction, SC has won 20+ games in four of the past five seasons, and the one time it didn’t was a year where it only played in 20 games total. This year’s squad gets back 76.1% of its minutes and all of its biggest contributors. Former Arizona transfer Adama Bal played really well for the Broncos in his first season for the program, leading the team in scoring. He and Carlos Stewart both made the Preseason All-WCC team. Stewart comes back to Santa Clara after a year at LSU, and two years ago at SC he averaged 15.2 points per game. Big man Johnny O’Neil will be good too.
WAC
Grand Canyon is unsurprisingly the unanimous favorite to win the WAC. I’m going with Cal Baptist as the sleeper here mostly because of Dominique Daniels Jr. Last year was his first in Divison I after transferring in from San Bernadino Valley College. There was no adjustment period as he was immediately one of the best scorers in the WAC. He set multiple program records for the Lancers and probably would’ve been All-WAC First Team if he hadn’t gotten hurt late in the year. As GCU’s Tyson Grant-Foster tries to defend his title as WAC Player of the Year, Dominique Daniels Jr. will be his main competition.
