On offense, the buzzword has been spacing. That’s not just for the Minnesota Timberwolves in the wake of Karl-Anthony Towns’s departure but essentially every NBA team. As teams continue to hunt for the best possible shots, looking for an edge over their opponent, efficiency is emphasized. Despite that fact though, analytics-enhanced basketball has lost the plot.
There is a place, even a need, for analytics. However, rarely will a scientist or academic look at raw data and derive an absolute from it. From chemistry to philosophy, there are more theories than there are laws. Basketball analytics have all but forgotten that there are alternatives, exceptions, and outliers.
As it relates to Minnesota, the idea that Julius Randle ruins the team’s spacing is steeped in misapplied statistics. Towns is undoubtedly a more efficient three-point threat than Randle, shooting 39.8 percent from deep throughout his career. For comparison, Randle has made 33.3 percent of his career 3s.
Yet, Randle has made 37.4 percent of his corner 3s over the course of his career. This is a shot that will be available to Randle when he’s playing off of someone like Anthony Edwards. It’s often a shot that defenses concede while making rotations. Last May, ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry estimated that 19.6 percent of the league’s total jump shots come from the corners.
With that being said, the Timberwolves’ spacing could be affected by the blockbuster trade. However, the concerns could be overblown, as Randle’s pretty efficient from one of the most frequently used areas of the floor. Furthermore, there are ways that Randle might actually help Minnesota’s offense.
Julius Randle Acquisition Adds To Timberwolves Pack Mentality
For starters, Randle is a triple-threat —a player who can pass, dribble, or score. This is in stark contrast to Towns’s limitations as a ball-handler, live dribble passer, and driver. More trustworthy, capable, and dynamic with the ball in his hands than the former No. 1 pick, he increases the Timberwolves options on offense.
No longer do Edwards and Mike Conley have to be the only reliable playmakers in the first unit. Now, the Timberwolves can also play off of Randle, who has averaged as high as 6.0 assists per game.
Last season, Randle averaged 5.0 assists per game while starting alongside a high-usage guard in Jalen Brunson. On drives, he had a 9.8 percent assist rate, which was even higher than Brunson’s (9.2 percent) and far more than Towns’s (6.3 percent).
Speaking of driving, Randle’s frequent rack attacks could allow Minnesota to put more pressure on the rim. Despite being a true 7-footer, Towns spent a lot of time outside of the restricted area. This wasn’t problematic with Rudy Gobert’s inability to stretch the floor. However, there is the possibility that the Timberwolves will feature Naz Reid more often this season.
If so, Reid will help force opposing big men out of the paint. That benefits any teammate that likes to foray into the paint. In fact, it demands that Minnesota have a player that can excel as a slasher. An athletic forward with great footwork, who instinctively creates space, and can score with either hand, Randle is ‘one of them ones.’
The three-time All-Star obviously is fond of the midrange, which would seem to affect the team’s floor balance. However, because he’s a genuine threat from that area, players will guard him tightly outside the circle to take that shot away. This is a perfect opportunity for him to be a playmaker, whether it’s a simple kick-out or running split action.
In other words, an area that some may perceive to be a flaw in Randle’s game could be a strength.
What About Defense?
On defense, Randle may not be guarding Nikola Jokic or asked to protect the rim. Yet, he’s a more fluid athlete than Towns, which should allow him to have greater success guarding forwards. Towns, even as a hybrid big rather than a combo forward, wasn’t incapable of guarding on the perimeter. Nonetheless, there’s no doubt that it isn’t natural for him.
However, in a league that has players like LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum starting at forward, having players that can match up with them physically matters. That isn’t to say Randle is going to lock any of them down. He just has the tools to be more effective.
If Randle completely buys into playing championship-level defense, it may even help Gobert. In the halfcourt, Gobert will be dragged out of the paint from time to time. The Timberwolves could adjust to this by blitzing ball-handlers and forcing them to make a quick decision. However, if a pass is made, the subsequent rotations have to be fast and sharp. Randle being a more athletic player than Towns benefits Minnesota here as well.
