Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

2024-25 NBA MVP Odds: SGA Could Win His First MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a bonafide superstar. Since being drafted in 2018, he has improved year after year, culminating in the 2023-24 season. Last season, SGA averaged 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists. He was voted second in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic and led the Oklahoma City Thunder to a number one seed in the Western Conference. This 2024-25 NBA preview will determine whether the MVP odds for SGA are worth taking as your best NBA bet for next season. 

2024-25 NBA MVP Odds: SGA Could Win His First MVP

*All SGA MVP odds are courtesy of FanDuel.com*

 

Narrative Building  

The Thunder have dramatically improved since SGA’s arrival. They have emerged as a Western Conference powerhouse and are currently favored to win the West. During the 2023-24 season, with the league’s youngest roster, they went 57-25, good for the second-best record in the NBA. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder’s rapid rise to excellence set the scene for SGA’s MVP narrative. 

Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2023-24 season was already a near-perfect showcase of his skills. He overperformed expectations, propelling OKC far beyond their win projection, and still fell short of winning MVP. What more can SGA do to secure the award? There may be little room for him to improve on his already stellar numbers, which could provide challenges when building his MVP narrative.

That being said, SGA is, without a doubt, one of the most valuable players in the NBA. SGA averaged over 30 points per game while leading the league in steals, showing his dominance on both sides of the floor. His ability to score with remarkable efficiency, despite his unconventional style of play, sets him apart from other top ball-handlers in the league. This two-way excellence separates him from some of his MVP competition. 

2024-25 MVP Odds and Competition

According to oddsmakers, the top three most likely 2024-25 MVP winners are Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, and SGA. Luka is the favorite at +360, Jokic is +400, and Gilgeous-Alexander is +500 to win the award. Jokic has now won the award three of the last four years. The MVP voters could certainly be losing interest in voting for Jokic, especially if the Nuggets aren’t at the top of the Western Conference standings. Luka could certainly win his first award, but with +360 odds, there is significantly less value than taking SGA at +500. 

Team Improvement Equals Better Chances

OKC is poised for significant improvement in 2024-25. They picked up Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein over the offseason, improving their defense and size. Chet Holmgren is likely to make a big leap in his second year. With SGA at this point, OKC will likely be one of the best teams in the West. They are currently +330 to win the conference and have an over/under of 56.5 wins this season. 

SGA’s trajectory is undeniable. He has established himself as a legitimate superstar, and as OKC continues to improve, so too will his MVP chances. While the narrative-driven nature of the award makes anything possible, Gilgeous-Alexander’s on-court brilliance and the Thunder’s rise make him a perennial candidate. Whether or not he ultimately captures the award in 2025, SGA has found his place among the NBA’s elite.

 

Jeremy Kruger

Jeremy Kruger

"You're not tall enough to make the NBA," they said. They were right. But now Jeremy is doing the next best thing: sharing his passion for basketball with the world through his writing.

Share:

More Posts