First things first, Nikola Topic’s rookie preview will clearly be unique from others we’ve done. Considered a top-five pick for the majority of the draft cycle, Topic suffered a partially torn ACL after returning from a previous knee injury in late April. It’s been confirmed that he will not play in the 2024-25 season, essentially taking a redshirt year. He’s a long-term play now for the Thunder, but he couldn’t have gone to a better organization. Let’s take a look at Topic’s rookie preview for the coming seasons.
NBA Rookie Preview: Nikola Topic
Prospect Profile
It’s easy to forget that before the injuries, Topic was a consensus top-five pick and in contention for number one overall early in this cycle. Nikola Topic played most of his basketball this past season in the Serbian Liga ABA. He averaged 18.5 points, 6.9 assists, and 3.7 rebounds during his time with KK Mega Basket. These numbers were very impressive for someone playing in the same league that brought the NBA Nikola Jokic. Even still, Topic increased his competition choosing to join KK Crvena Zvezda of the Euroleague midway through the season. Topic was aware the move could limit his production, but he wanted to play against the best players near him.
Unfortunately, Topic only played two games before his first knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the regular season. He would return for three games before suffering the partially torn ACL on the same knee in the Adriatic League playoff finals.
Topic is a Serbian 6-foot-6 point guard who can run the show and plays with great skill. Topic can be an advanced point guard with plus size who gets everyone involved. Does that profile sound familiar? It’s very similar to Josh Giddey, whom the Thunder just traded for a more ‘win-now’ piece in Alex Caruso. Topic isn’t an explosive athlete, but his craft and playmaking ability more than makeup for it. He can be the jumbo-sized point guard that is becoming a trend in the NBA.
Team Fit
In my opinion, the Thunder is the perfect organization for Topic. Not only do they not need him to be ready immediately, but they’ve succeeded in this exact situation before. Budding star Chet Holmgren missed his entire first year in the NBA. The Thunder found the perfect balance focusing on his health and development. This led to an All-Rookie first-team campaign when he returned to the court, and he would have been Rookie of the Year if not for Victor Wembanyama. Now, it’s unfair to expect those same results from Topic in his rookie season, which hopefully is the 2025-26 season. The situation in Oklahoma City is far different than when Holmgren entered the league.
The Thunder were the number one seed in the stacked Western Conference last year, and they’re only getting better. They have a legitimate MVP candidate at guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and there are perfect complimentary pieces around him. Jalen Williams and Holmgren are both rising stars capable of All-Star-level performance in their own right. Then there’s a litany of two-way players in Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins. The only thing the Thunder were missing was an enforcer or more traditional big man in the paint. They perfectly covered that void by signing Isaiah Hartenstein, a coveted free agent from the Knicks.
Even when Topic returns, there definitely is something to be said about the minutes that may or may not be available to him. The Thunder are in the early stages of a championship window, and their roster’s stacked with elite talent that’s still young in age.
Predictions
Obviously, Topic’s rookie preview won’t include any awards for this season due to his injury. If he returns to the floor fully healthy for the 2025-26 season though, how high is his ceiling? In my eyes, the Thunder are genuinely just taking a wait-and-see approach with Topic. If he’s fully healthy, I think he can be very similar to Giddey in the mold of a plus-sized point guard with great playmaking and feel. The major question for Topic’s success, specifically with the Thunder, is the development of his perimeter shooting. Having every player on the floor be able to dribble, pass, and shoot has become almost trademarked by the Thunder. If Topic progresses his shooting during this development year, he’ll be a lot more versatile in lineups for the Thunder.
What ultimately hurt Giddey was his lack of perimeter shooting. He needed the ball in his hands to affect the game, and the Thunder have too many others that can create. Topic’s career will be very interesting to watch unfold, but the Thunder got a very talented player at pick 12. He may pay dividends on the court or as a young trade asset on a team that’s trying to maximize their championship window.
