Adding Fred VanVleet helped turn the Houston Rockets into a respectable franchise again last season. But what will his role be next season? In 2024-25, he will enter the second year of his three-year deal. It was a contract that some viewed as an overpay. Context was key, however, and the Rockets will be happy with their returns thus far, especially given the alternatives for what they could have spent the money on. As far as next season is concerned, though, less might actually be more.
Year 2 of Houston’s VanVleet Master Plan
How VanVleet Got to Houston
After some significant overhauls to the team in the previous offseason, the Houston Rockets are primarily relying on growth from within to improve this year. Adding former Toronto Raptor and NBA champion VanVleet was one of those significant overhauls. The team brought the six-foot point guard in to be a steadying presence among their motley crew of young prospects. At age 30, and in his ninth season, he isn’t going to be a source of much growth, though. So this year, the team’s improvement may have to involve him contributing less.
In his first year in Houston, VanVleet averaged 17.4 points and 8.1 assists per game, the latter of which led the team and was good for seventh in the NBA. It was a career-high for him, and yet despite that, his turnovers actually went down compared with previous years to only 1.7 per game. He was a safe pair of hands for head coach Ime Udoka. But that safety came with a cost and put a ceiling on the offense. Assist numbers can be deceptive.
The Nuances of Volume Assist Numbers
For example, James Harden led the league in assists twice in his career. Once was with the Rockets in 2017, when new coach Mike D’Antoni‘s system placed Harden’s scoring prowess at the center of a well-spaced offense featuring an elite lob finisher in Clint Capela. The second time was different, though. It was six years later, in 2023 with the Philadelphia 76ers after Harden’s scoring ability was noticeably diminished (though he did still drop multiple 40-point games in the playoffs against an elite Boston Celtics team that had to overhaul its defensive scheme in order to slow him down… or essentially stop him).
Crucially though, that later Harden assist leader season came playing alongside that year’s MVP, Joel Embiid. Harden was and still is an elite passer, but a sizeable chunk of his assists that year were the result of fairly basic pick-and-pop passes to Embiid at the elbow. Essentially, for one year only, the two of them recreated the infamous record-book-blasting duo of John Stockton and Karl Malone. But that steady stream of offense dried up in the playoffs because it was too predictable.
Year One of the Plan
VanVleet did a smaller-scale impression of this last season with Houston’s star big man, Alperen Sengun. VanVleet operated as the NBA designated ball handler in 7.4 pick and rolls a game. Watching the team play, the number felt higher. Surprisingly, however, VanVleet did not even lead the team. That was instead the final equivalent number of 8.0 for Houston’s most tantalizing prospect, Jalen Green.
For Houston’s offense to improve next season, that disparity will have to increase. But for that to be to Houston’s advantage, Green will have to become more efficient as a decision-maker in those situations as well (that’s still Jalen Green, to be clear, not Houston’s LeBron James of role players, Jeff Green). For instance, while VanVleet led the team in drives per game last season at 10.6, Green was second with 9.5. But Green passed out of only 27.2% of those and turned the ball over in 8.0%.
In contrast, VanVleet passed out on 63.5% of his drives and only turned the ball over on 5.4%. But it’s as well that VanVleet did pass out so much because he only actually shot 41.2% when he didn’t. The trouble is, because of his insistence on trying to score against pressure, Green didn’t shoot all that much better at 46.3%.
And Year Two…
Houston will still need VanVleet plenty next season. Udoka wanted to make the franchise about winning again. VanVleet was exactly the kind of winner he needed to achieve that. He still is. Chances are, he will start and close in every game that he plays. The Rockets will be hoping that he plays plenty.
But part of what general manager Rafael Stone brought VanVleet to do was teach his teammates how to be winners too. That’s especially true for Green. Despite complicated contract negotiations, the Rockets need Green to become the leader of the team. As the current leader, VanVleet has to help teach him how to become that. VanVleet’s contract can be viewed as less of an overpay when you consider that his services include training his effective replacement.
The Last Word
The Rockets are in a tough spot in the Western Conference. Not making at least the play-in this season would be viewed as a disappointment. But reinvigorated teams like the Memphis Grizzlies and possibly even the San Antonio Spurs will affect the calculus. VanVleet did the hard part of making people take Houston seriously again. Now he needs to step back and trust the team’s young stars not to let him down.
