Despite making the NBA Finals and having a future top-20 great in Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks have only the sixth-best title odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook. At +1000 odds they are tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves but behind both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference. What’s more, they’re most recently in the news cycle because of a Warrior and a Knick. Is Dallas simply woefully under-discussed? Or is there something afoot in the Western Conference that makes it understandable?
Mavericks Title Odds Up in the Air After Finals Run
Recent Developments
Some new insight into the Dallas Maverick’s thought process has been revealed this season. Now minority owner Mark Cuban recently sat down with former Maverick Jalen Brunson on the Roommates podcast. The primary focus of the conversation was understandably on the process that led to Brunson parting with the franchise to become the new face of the New York Knicks. It wasn’t quite the kiss and make-up spectacle that was the infamous sit-down between Draymond Green and Kevin Durant. Nonetheless, little of the major substance was exchanged. Neither Cuban nor Brunson wanted to say anything that was going to get them fined after all.
But the conversation also strayed to the topic of the Maverick’s most eye-catching offseason addition. The Mavericks signed four-time All-Star and historically significant marksman Klay Thompson to his first non-Golden State Warriors NBA contract. Thompson has also recently spoken about how he fits with his new team. But nobody is mentioning the arrival of who may be just as important to the Mavs’ title odds, former New Orleans Pelican Naji Marshall. Admittedly, Marshall isn’t the star that Thompson once was. But then neither is the current Thompson.
Not Every Team Can Be a Media Darling
The Dallas Mavericks are never going to be the most talked-about team in the association. Similar to the Denver Nuggets the year before, they could have won the whole thing last season, and they still would be less discussed than the Lakers of the Knicks. Maybe Kyrie Irving, having settled in nicely, will come out next season and try to change that. Maybe he’ll make Dallas a feature of the news cycle the way he did the Brooklyn Nets. Dallas will obviously be hoping otherwise. They’re perfectly happy to stay under the radar.
Much like fellow Eastern European NBA sensation and Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic, Doncic eschews the limelight. The American celebrity lifestyle doesn’t seem to be quite his cup of tea. But more than that, Dallas would prefer not to be viewed as any kind of particular juggernaut in the Western Conference. Just look at what happened to the Nuggets.
A Cautionary Tale?
The Minnesota Timberwolves may have put their roster together before Denver had won its championship, but the former Denver GM who’d just landed in Minnesota clearly knew what his team was going to have to get through. So he built a team specifically designed to get through it. He already had an explosive driver, Anthony Edwards, that Denver had nobody equipped to stop. He even had a big man in Karl-Anthony Towns capable of playing the four while keeping the floor spaced for said explosive driver. Then he went out and got the final piece to be able to match the physicality of Denver’s front court—four-time (then three-time) Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
It was a hard-fought series, with some very loosely officiated games and some terrible shooting numbers for the Nuggets, but the Timberwolves did finally prevail against the team they were designed to beat. Then they almost got swept by the Mavericks.
The Western Conference is a matchup gauntlet. Dallas played three straight teams where they were able to focus on a single dangerous creator and essentially ignore most other players from the perimeter. Despite having arguably zero truly elite defenders, Dallas used the length and athleticism of its frontcourt to suffocate the paint and cover for the underwhelming defensive duo of Doncic and Irving.
The Wrong Matchup Could Tank Mavs Title Chances
Then they ran into a matchup that got the better of them. The Dallas Mavericks’ defense held up somewhat okay in the Finals against Boston. That was despite the shooting options in orbit around Jayson Tatum. But Tatum had a mostly poor offensive postseason in general. And Boston’s starting center, Kristaps Porzingis, missed most of the series. Five-out spacing was a killer for Dallas’s hopes of winning the series with defense alone. They needed their offense to step up. But it didn’t.
Doncic can score against anybody in the NBA. If you double him, he will make the right pass. He may even make the “wrong” pass so well that it works out for Dallas anyway.
But Boston didn’t have the same exploitable switch targets that other teams had had. More problematically, Doncic’s wingman found the Boston defense thoroughly suffocating. Irving had a mostly pretty poor series against Boston. Part of that may have been due to fatigue, but it seems clear that the combination of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White made things extremely difficult for him.
The Mavericks are in the seemingly luxurious position of having arguably the best player in the league and a team they know is capable of emerging from the West. However, Dallas’ position is unenviable in that anything short of another Finals appearance will be considered a disappointment. But in the West, the wrong matchup at the wrong time could look like backsliding and make the Mavs’ title odds even longer next season. Moreover, if they did get to the finals again, even with their shiny new shooter, they may just have to hope that the Celtics won’t be there for a reunion.
The Last Word
Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Timberwolves are still seen as hotter commodities than a proven Mavericks squad. Mavs fans probably think it’s unfair. The fact is, though, that betting odds aren’t all about the team’s expected success. Those other teams are more talked about. So people bet on them. Vegas knows better than anyone else how unpredictable this Western Conference is. At this stage, they just want less punishing odds on more popular bets. Dallas is in the mix, and they’ll have all season to separate themselves if that’s what they deserve. But come playoff time, matchups may decide all.
