Consensus 5-star prospect Jasper Johnson is slated to make his college decision in the coming days. Which one of his five finalists will win out?
Johnson has been one of the most sought-after prospects from the class of 2025. Overall, he is considered the No. 11 prospect in the class, with a 98.39 rating. ESPN lists him as high as 12th and On3 as low as 22nd. On3 is the only major recruiting service listing him as four stars.
While there is no set commitment date, Johnson is expected to decide sometime next week, per KSR+ on August 19. Johnson cut his list to five last month and is now considering Kentucky, Alabama, North Carolina, Louisville, and Arkansas.
“We will make a decision next week,” the five-star guard’s father, Dennis Johnson, told KSR. “The family wants to make the best decision for Jasper.”
Alabama Expected To Steal 5-Star Recruit From Two Blue Bloods
Johnson is best-known scoring ability as he is at his best slashing to the basket. Shot selection has been an issue for the 6-4 wing, but he does have deep range, and he is very good off the catch or on one or two dribbles. He finished in the top 10 scoring at the EYBL Peach Jam with 19.8 points a game despite shooting 37.9% from the field and 25.5% from the three-point line.
However, Johnson showed off his sharpshooting ability last week at Damian Lillard’s Formula Zero Elite Camp and while with USA U18 squad this summer. The Versailles (KY) native will be in Los Angeles this weekend for Mamba Camp.
While playing for Team USA, Johnson averaged 10.0 points, 1.8 threes, and 2.7 assists while shooting 51.1% from the field and 42.3% from beyond the arc in fewer than 16 minutes a game over six FIBA AmeriCup contests. He scored in double-figures three times, including 19 points in the gold medal game versus Argentina, and drained three treys on three occasions.
Johnson’s Recruitment
Johnson has over 25 offers and has visited all five of his finalists. However, Kentucky, Alabama, and UNC appear to have separated themselves from the pack. Louisville and Arkansas received unofficial visits but not official visits like the other three.
“(Figuring out) what’s the best fit for me,” Johnson told Jack Pilmgrim of KSR+ about the factors he is looking at over the final week. “I know there are opportunities everywhere, so I’m just taking my time, being patient. I’m going to talk to my family about it and see what’s the right fit for me. … Fit, being patient, praying about it, and making sure that when it’s time, I’m making the right choice for me.”
Johnson projects to receive around $300k in NIL money. But he said that money won’t be an issue.
“I know it’s something that has to be done nowadays, and it’s something you’ve got to look into, but it’s not really that important to me,” Johnson told KSR. “I’m keeping the main goal, the main goal, and the main focus the main focus. I let everybody around me and my parents deal with that. You’ve just got to focus on what’s important, and everything else will take care of itself.”
Kentucky has received the most visits from Johnson, with seven. Four visits have come since June 18, with the latest being on Aug. 1. Meanwhile, Alabama has received three visits, with an official visit coming on June 24. UNC has received two visits, including an unofficial visit on June 26.
Who Is The Favorite?
Kentucky has been “in on” Johnson for a long time, with former assistant coach Orlando Antigua making an in-home visit on October 11, 2022. Johnson, who has several connections to the Wildcats including his father playing football there, took his first unofficial to the Lexington campus on October 24.
Fellow 2025 classmate and Kentucky native Malachi Moreno, who recently committed to the Wildcats, pitched Johnson on joining him in Lexington over the weekend (via 247Sports).
You know where home is at, Jasper. Ironically, I have a list of people I want to text after this. I talk to him every now and then. I’m just constantly telling him, ‘There’s no place like home. Like, BBN loves us, and we can say we got to wear Kentucky across our chest.’ It’s a dream we’ve both had since we were little kids.”
Alabama was the first power-5 school to offer Johnson, and coach Nate Oats prioritized him. Plus, two of Johnson’s former teammates, Derrion Reid and Labaron Philon, are 2024 signees of Alabama.
“It was good,” Johnson said regarding his visit to Tuscaloosa. “Coach (Nate) Oats has been recruiting me. I mean, they were the first Power Five school to offer me. We’ve been building that relationship for three years now. Getting out to campus to see everything and hear his message was great.”
Meanwhile, UNC has also recruited him hard for a while.
“We’ve been on three or four of these, official visits and unofficial visits, but this was phenomenal,” Dennis Johnson told Inside Carolina about the UNC official visit in February. “They’re just so authentic, and it was really cool that all of those guys (UNC coaching staff) played at UNC. That’s crazy. We’re through the roof. They said they’re going to make it hard for us to go somewhere else. The way they treated us was just a great experience, and we loved how authentic they were.”
On3’s recruiting prediction machine gives Kentucky a 75% chance of landing Johnson. Conversely, Alabama is only given a 4.7% chance, and UNC’s success rate is listed at 3.2%.
Here is what a few recruiting gurus—Jacob Polacheck, Travis Branham, and Jaime Shaw—have to say about Johnson’s future.
Jacob Polacheck: KSR+
I currently see this recruitment as close to a 50-50 race between UK and Alabama. Momentum for UNC has died down in recent weeks, though I’m not ready to completely rule out the Tar Heels.
Jaime Shaw: ON3
Sources tell me that Alabama is the program that has been carrying momentum for the five-star shooting guard for a bit. The other teams in the mix, sources say, are UNC and Kentucky. Sources tell me that UNC had some momentum coming out of July, but around a couple of weeks ago Kentucky made a push. I am told that the Wildcats have laid it all out and let Johnson, who is from the state of Kentucky and his dad played football at Kentucky, know he is a priority recruit for the new staff.
One source close to the recruitment told me – within the last 36 hours – that they would be very surprised, at this point, if Johnson didn’t ultimately choose Alabama.
Travis Branham: 247Sports
Over the last few weeks, this has been a three-man race between Alabama, North Carolina and Kentucky. Now, it’s a two-man race between Alabama and North Carolina. I would classify Kentucky as a distant third. I’m still tipping my hat to the Crimson Tide as the leader in this one, but North Carolina is within striking distance. The Tar Heels could flip this thing around before the official commitment.”
