Julius Randle became extension-eligible on August 3rd, 2024. After signing a team-friendly deal with the Knicks in the summer of 2022, there is a widespread belief that the Knicks would offer him the max contract this time around: $181 million over 4-years. Yet, despite everything said, Randle became eligible over 10 days ago. Nothing has changed since then. The Knicks and Randle seem nowhere close to an agreement. There is a world where this might be Randle’s last season in the Garden.
The Knicks are Choosing to Wait on Julius Randle
Regular Season Performance
His regular season numbers are a big part of why the Knicks should offer him a contract. In his five seasons with the Knicks, Julius Randle averages 22.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 45.0/33.8/76.8 shooting splits. In this stretch, he’s accumulated three All-Star Nods and two All-NBA selections. Randle also won the Most Improved Player of the Year award in the 2020-21 season. He has been one of the leaders for this iteration of the Knicks and is a huge part of the reason for their recent success. He has accumulated 25.5 WS over the past five seasons, and his best seasons have consistently ranked top 25 in the league. In the 2023-24 NBA season, the Knicks were a 93rd-percentile offense and 53rd-percentile defense with him on the court. They were on a 56-win pace before Randle went down with an injury. Furthermore, the Knicks went 12-2 in the games OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, and Randle played.
Post-Season Performance
Randle’s biggest issue is his lack of success in the playoffs. In his 15 career playoff games, he averages 17.1 points, 9.4 boards, and 3.7 assists on 34.4/28.3/75.6 shooting splits. He becomes quite literally the worst shooter in the NBA. His career offensive rating plummets from 109 to 92. The lack of support around Brunson was the biggest reason for the Knicks’ loss to the Heat in the 2022-23 playoffs. Additionally, Randle is a net-negative playoff performer, and he has not stood his ground when the lights are bright.
There is an argument to be made that Julius Randle was hurt & injured, but that does not account for the fact that he couldn’t shoot at all in the playoffs. His stark drop in efficiency is worrisome because he might be the NBA version of Dak Prescott. Great regular season numbers, no postseason success.
Contract Negotiations with Julius Randle
There are only two scenarios currently in play. Either Julius Randle is deadset on hitting Free Agency next offseason, or the Knicks are squeamish about giving him a max contract due to his lack of meaningful postseason contributions. Both options are logical. If Randle performs at an elite level with the Knicks, he might have a major market next offseason. His performance determines his pay, and Randle will be willing to bet on himself to get a bigger deal in free agency than any money the Knicks can offer him.
On the other hand, the Knicks simply may decide to wait and watch. His lack of postseason production indicates it may not be worth paying him that money. The Knicks could choose to wait until free agency or try to settle on a lower deal because Randle does not have the postseason accomplishments yet. He has proven to be a liability come April, and the Knicks may want to see his fit on the Knicks this season to decide if he is worth paying.
The Last Word on Julius Randle’s Contract
The Knicks might cede and pay him the max in the months before the season. He has a consistent track record, and the Knicks should hope he is healthy during the playoffs because of their depth. They also have to start thinking about Mikal Bridges‘ contract extension (eligible from Oct) and paying a max to Randle might prompt Bridges to ask for more than what he is currently expected to take.
