The Games of the XXXIII Olympiad in Paris are finally upon us. The Opening Ceremony and official beginning of the games is on Friday night, although some events started on Wednesday. Basketball, like a lot of events, gets started on Saturday. To start things off will be a great matchup between Spain and Australia, two teams ranked in the top 5 in the world. If you’re like me, then you’ve been waiting for this moment for years. Now, let’s get started with the 2024 Paris Olympics. He is my Olympic basketball preview of each team/country competing in basketball on the men’s side in the Olympics this year, accompanied by their FIBA World Ranking, as well as predictions for the group stage.
2024 Paris Olympics Basketball Preview & Predictions
Group A
Group Of Death
Spain (2), Australia (5), Canada (7), Greece (14)
In most group play tournaments like this one, you will usually hear one of the groups referred to as “the group of death.” This group is the definition of that.
Spain was disappointing in the Tokyo Olympics by finishing 6th and disappointed again in the World Cup last summer finishing in 9th place. In between those performances though La Roja took home gold at EuroBasket 2022, their fourth title in the last six EuroBasket tournaments. Willy Hernangomez was the MVP of that tournament, and he has continued to dominate in international play. In the Olympic Qualifying Tournament that was in Valencia he was one of the best-performing players, averaging 18.3 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Together he and Santi Aldama form a devastating frontcourt duo. Aldama averaged 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game in Valencia. As always though the team is led by the legendary Rudy Fernández. The 39-year-old has led his home country to three Olympic medals, but never a gold.
Australia also disappointed at the World Cup, finishing right behind Spain in 10th place. They lost Jock Landale right before the tournament, and the huge hole at center that was created derailed the team. But now the Boomers are healthy again and ready to take the next step. In Tokyo they finally broke through and won a medal for the first time at the Olympics, defeating Slovenia in the bronze medal game. That came after four previous losses in bronze medal games over the years. Running the point for the Boomers is the all-powerful Patty Mills, who always seems to turn into prime Michael Jordan when playing for the Australian National Team. An example of his greatness when wearing an Aussie uniform: he had 42 points against Luka Dončić and Slovenia in the bronze medal game in Tokyo, and was really the second-best player in the games that year behind Luka. Elite shooter Joe Ingles along with a host of talented guards join him on the team.
Canada was really impressive at the World Cup even though Jamal Murray opted not to play. They won bronze, which was their first-ever World Cup medal. Their previous highest finish was sixth, and they hadn’t done anything in their last couple of appearances. Now they will try to piggyback off of that and win an Olympic medal for the first time since 1936, when they won silver in basketball’s first ever appearance in the Olympics. This team is loaded, with 10 current NBA players and 2 former NBA players. They might have the best guard duo in the tournament in Murray and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA was awesome in the World Cup and averaged 24.5 PPG and 6.4 APG and was an All-Tournament First Team member. Dillon Brooks was named as the Best Defensive Player of the tournament. Having Kelly Olynyk as a stretch five provides great spacing for the team. They have a great chance to medal after not having appeared in the Olympics since 2000, as they missed the last five tournaments.
Greece is, of course, where the origin of the Olympic Games comes from. With the Greek Freak at the helm, they will try to change their fortunes. It is only their fifth appearance in the Olympics (their last appearance was in 2008) and they have never finished higher than 5th. This absolute gauntlet of a group isn’t going to make things any easier. Good thing this team is really good. Of course, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the headliner (He will also be the flagbearer for Greece.). He led the team to victory in the OQT that they hosted in Piraeus. He was great in that tournament, but it was far from a one-man show. Nick Calathes averaged 10.5 assists per game in the OQT which was first by a good margin. Thomas Walkup and Georgios Papagiannis played well in the OQT after both having strong performances in the World Cup last summer. Giannis’ brothers Thanasis and Kostas are both injured and have been ruled out for the Olympics.
Prediction
There is a chance that all four of these teams could advance. However, that chance is slim. But, I’ll be bold. Since I think all of the games in this group will be good, close games, I’ll say that all four teams move on.
Group B
Germany (3), France (9), Brazil (12), Japan (26)
Germany comes into the Olympics as the defending World Champions after having won the World Cup last summer. Every other team in that tournament lost at least two games. The Germans didn’t lose a single one, going a perfect 8-0. They might not have been at the top of any statistical categories, but that didn’t matter. They just played really good basketball and found ways to win their games. The triumph vaulted them to number three in the world. Dennis Schröder was great throughout the tournament (except for the Latvia game) and was named tournament MVP after averaging 19.1 points and 6.1 assists per game. He always plays well in international games, similar to Patty Mills. The point guard was also just named as the flag bearer for Germany at the Opening Ceremony, which is arguably the biggest athletics-related honor that you can receive. He isn’t the only player on this team though of course. Franz Wagner is an excellent basketball player and, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated players in the world right now. His older brother Moritz “Mo” Wagner is also on the team, as is new Pelicans center Daniel Theis. Veteran Johannes “Jo” Voigtmann is yet another big man on this team, and he has a history of playing well in the Olympics.
France is starting to worry me a little bit. If they play to their full potential then they are an amazing basketball team would could beat anyone and could absolutely take home the gold. However, they have been far from that in the past year. In the World Cup they finished in an extremely disappointing 17th place, and their world ranking has since fallen to 9th. Now they have lost their last four warmup games. Granted they were all against really good teams, but still. Despite that though I still have a lot of faith in the hosts. Les Bleus has a ton of talent on their roster, headlined of course by Victor Wembanyama. Mainstays Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier, and Nicolas “Nic” Batum are still there. This team (minus Wemby) almost won gold in Tokyo. They can absolutely finish the job this year. Being in front of their home fans and fellow countrymen should reinvigorate this squad.
Brazil is interesting. In the OQT in Riga, Latvia they did not look good at times, especially against Cameroon and the Phillippines. But in the final they were dominant against Latvia, beating the host (and favorite) by 25 points. Bruno Caboclo was magnificent through the entire tournament and won MVP of that OQT. Leo Meindl and Marcelinho Huertas both played well. Huertas, who is 41, is playing what could be his final appearance with the national team, a team he’s played for for two decades. He was a key part of the team in the Olympics in 2012 and 2016. The team has had a lot less success on the international stage in recent years. But the first step was making it back to the Olympics, after failing to qualify for the Tokyo games. If they can build off of their performance against Latvia they could make some noise.
Japan qualified for this year’s Olympics after being the second-highest-finishing team from Asia/Oceania in last summer’s World Cup. They have never finished higher than 9th in the Olympics, and their appearance as the host nation three years ago was their first appearance since 1976. But this team has improved dramatically in recent years. This time three years ago they were ranked 45th in the world and a year ago they were 36th. Now they’re up to 26th in the world rankings and are the third-best team in Asia/Oceania. Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe have been the backbones of this team. They both played really well in the Olympics three years ago. Hachimura was fourth among all players with 22.3 points per game. Watanabe was tied for fifth with 8.0 rebounds per game. College basketball fans will be very familiar with Keisei Tominaga, a high-level scorer and elite shooter. Josh Hawkinson played well for them in the World Cup. He was seventh in points per game (21.0) and second in rebounds (10.8 RPG).
Prediction
Germany and France advance.
Group C
USA (1), Serbia (4), Puerto Rico (16), South Sudan (33)
On paper Team USA is obviously the favorite to win the gold medal yet again, something they have done four straight times. The Athens games in 2004 were the last time they didn’t, as they took home bronze that year (Argentina won gold and Italy won silver). Tons of people have dubbed this team “The Avengers” over the last many months given the massive amount of talent on this roster that was put together after failing to medal in the FIBA World Cup last summer. However, they are not invincible. As we saw in Infinity War, even the Avengers can lose. Their vulnerabilities were shown on Saturday when they came just a missed floater away from losing to South Sudan. They cannot afford to get complacent or cocky, and they will also need to play better as a team. There were times when LeBron James had to carry the squad a little too much. They may have won all of their warm-up games at the USA Basketball Showcases in Abu Dhabi and London, but those are a lot like preseason games. In the Olympics, when the games matter, it’s a whole different animal. It’s also a lot different than it used to be, as the rest of the world has caught up. In 1992 the Dream Team faced just 9 opposing players who were in the NBA. This year Team USA will face 62 NBA players.
Serbia took home silver at last summer’s World Cup. They did that without Nikola Jokić. But they got The Joker to join the team in Paris, and he as the best basketball player on the planet joins an already stellar squad that is one of the best in the world. Nikola Jović was originally thought to be lost due to injury, but he returned and played in the team’s last few warm-up games and is good to go for the games. Bogdan Bogdanović and Nikola Milutinov both played really well in the World Cup, and both earned All-Tournament honors. This team is stacked. Serbia failed to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics after suffering a heartbreaking home loss to Italy in an OQT final. But in their last Olympic appearance at the Rio Games in 2016, Serbia took home the silver medal after a strong showing before losing to the U.S. in the gold medal match. Their head coach Svetislav “Kari” Pešić is a FIBA Hall of Famer.
Puerto Rico surprised a lot of people in the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments when they upset Lithuania in the title game of the OQT they hosted in San Juan. Both Tremont Waters and Jose Alvarado were excellent throughout that tournament. Ever since he began playing for the national team waters has been a star. In the OQT he averaged 15.3 points (fifth best), 5.5 assists (second best), and 1.5 steals (tied for ninth) per game. He was even better in the World Cup last summer, where he averaged 20.0 points (ninth), 9.2 assists (second), and 2.6 assists (tied for first). Alvarado missed the World Cup due to a leg injury, but he played very well against Italy and in the final against Lithuania in the OQT. He averaged 16.0 points (third), 3.0 assists (eleventh), and 2.3 steals per game (second). This is a difficult group, but as Puerto Rico showed when they beat both Italy and Lithuania by double-digits in San Juan, they are not afraid.
South Sudan is the youngest country in the world, having celebrated the country’s 13th birthday earlier this month. Their biggest export is, honestly, basketball. And they’re pretty good at it. The team entered last summer’s World Cup as a relative unknown and ranked 62nd in the world. They left as the highest finishing team from Africa and showed a ton of potential, and have boosted their world ranking as high as 31st. Just last weekend they came a missed floater away from beating the United States. It starts at the top. Longtime NBA veteran and All-Star Luol Deng, whose family fled the country to escape the Second Sudanese Civil War when he was a young child, is the president of the South Sudan Basketball Federation and is an assistant coach on the team. Their head coach is NBA veteran and Rockets assistant Royal Ivey. Then there is a lot of talent on the roster. They are led by former G League MVP Carlik Jones, who had a triple-double against the U.S. and was exceptional in the World Cup. Nuni Omot was the Basketball Africa League MVP in 2023. Wenyen Gabriel is a former NBA player and was a five-star recruit. Speaking of five-star recruits, Duke commit Khaman Maluach is also on the roster. He did a solid job in limited minutes going up against Anthony Davis in the aforementioned warm-up. Things are looking bright for the Bright Stars.
Prediction
Team USA and Serbia move on.
Medal Predictions
Gold – France. The hosts win gold.
Silver & Bronze – I can’t even make a prediction. This is the most wide-open Olympic basketball tournament ever. So many of these teams are good enough to win the Olympic gold medal. It should be a ton of fun.
