Seasoned NBA insiders believe Rob Dillingham on the Timberwolves could rack up points next season. They see him as the rookie most likely to score 50 points next season. Bill Simmons and some other NBA insiders discussed this on an episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast on Tuesday.
This Rookie Is Likely to Score 50 Points Next Season
The Ringer founder and podcast extraordinaire, Bill Simmons, did an NBA draft preview on Tuesday with NBA draft-heads Kevin O’Connor and J. Kyle Mann. While discussing the rookies projected to be drafted in the lottery, Rob Dillingham came up as a prospect that could be taken by the Spurs with the eighth pick of the draft.
Here’s the exchange:
BS: “Say which rookie in this draft in their rookie season is a threat to have like a 40-point game?”
KM: “Oh easy, that’s a given.”
BS: “I don’t even think, is there anybody else who would even?”
KM: “He might hit a 50, he might hit a 50…but like Dillingham is going to score. He’s going to have those nights. I mean if you think about like the Jalen Green kind of body type, like Dillingham does all that stuff but he’s more skilled and efficient in every single way.”
Written in the Stars
Dillingham went eighth in the 2024 draft. Not by the San Antonio Spurs, though. Not by a lottery team. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who were just three wins away from an NBA Finals berth, moved up in the draft to select him.
The T-Wolves traded their unprotected 2031 first-round pick and a protected 2030 pick swap to acquire him. That means they traded a pick seven years from now to acquire Dillingham—an unprecedented move in NBA history. A competent front office does that when they see a potential franchise cornerstone in a prospect. Dillingham definitely has the potential to be that.
He is arguably the best shot creator in the 2024 NBA draft. Dillingham was picked in the perfect scenario. The NBA tweaks its draft system regularly to promote parity among teams. Top prospects usually go to the worst-performing teams for the previous year. This gives them the opportunity to turn their fortunes around.
The drafting of Dillingham by the Timberwolves defies that logic. It’s reminiscent of the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s when the best teams added top prospects by fleecing their rivals in trades. For example, the Lakers got the first pick and drafted Magic Johnson in 1979 despite finishing the previous year 47-35. They got that pick as a compensation pick when the Utah Jazz signed Gail Goodrich in free agency. Another example is when the Lakers got the first pick in the 1982 draft and drafted James Worthy. They got this pick from the Cleveland Cavaliers, owned by the trigger-happy Ted Stepien (yes, he’s the reason for that rule).
His Potential Fit
This pick by the T-Wolves is similar in the sense that an already contending team is loading up on a high-end prospect. He has the potential to be a long-term starter, even a star if his development pans out the way it’s projected. He gives them a long-term backcourt partner for Anthony Edwards. Dillingham is an instant-offense spark plug that could contribute next season off the bench as he grows into the starting point guard role.
Dillingham averaged 15.2 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.9 rebounds in just 23.3 minutes per game last season. He also knocked down 44.4 percent of his 4.4 three-point attempts per game. The T-Wolves need some consistent offense outside of ANT and KAT. He will provide that.
Dillingham is listed at 6’1″ with a wingspan of 6’3″. He’s a small guard. The best-case scenario for him defensively before the draft would have been for him to be drafted to a team with size. Hello, Timberwolves. They have the size to surround him with, as well as the best defense last season. The T-wolves started 36-year-old Mike Conley last season, who is listed at 6’0″.
All in all, it will be intriguing to watch Dillingham’s development in Minneapolis. One thing is for sure, though: he’s a flamethrower who will get opportunities in Minnesota to get hot. If there was a bet on which rookie is likely to score 50 points next season, Dillingham would be the safest option.
