On Sunday the NBA Draft Lottery occurred with the draft order officially set we have a much clearer picture of this year’s draft. This year’s lottery came with a lot of surprises. Let’s dive into the winners and losers of the lottery.
3 Winners and Losers of the NBA Draft Lottery
Winner #1: Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks getting the No.1 overall pick was the story of the lottery and they are clear winners. Incredibly the Hawks got the N0.1 pick despite having just the 10th best odds with a 3% chance and only a 13.9% chance of jumping into the top four. The Hawks had a 36-46 record and playoff expectations before the season. Notably, this is only the second time with the new lottery format that a team outside of the top four odds earned the No. 1 pick the other being the Pelicans in 2019. What’s great about this pick for Atlanta is it gets them plenty of options. At least one of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray will be traded this off-season. Getting the No.1 pick only cements this.
The Hawks may fully rebuild and aim to land several draft picks in return for one or even both the guards. Alternatively, they could explore pairing one of the guards with another star perhaps even a higher-level star. In this scenario trading down or trading the pick all together are on the table. Furthermore, if the Hawks end up keeping the pick there are plenty of intriguing prospects that fit their needs. Alex Sarr is still the most likely top pick however, the possibilities are truly endless for Atlanta. Ultimately, the Hawks getting the top pick made a team stuck in the middle significantly more interesting.
Winner #2: San Antonio Spurs
After winning the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes at last year’s lottery the Spurs had another great lottery this year. Whether the Spurs would hold get the Raptors’ top-six protected pick was a key story heading into the lottery. Before the lottery, there was a 54.2% chance the Spurs would receive the Raptors’ pick. Ultimately, the Spurs did as the pick fell to eight while their own pick slightly jumped up to four. The Spurs are now perfectly positioned to build around Wemby. Getting a guard with playmaking abilities is essential with one of these picks.
Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Stephon Castle, and Reed Sheppard are all intriguing guard options. The Spurs could even draft two guards to optimize guard play around Wemby. The Spurs targeting a two-way spacing wing is another strong possibility. An intriguing yet somewhat unlikely possibility is the Spurs drafting another big such as Donovan Clingan to pair with Wemby. Trading one of their picks for a win now should be considered with how great Wemanyama’s rookie season was. Players such as Trae Young have been linked with the Spurs which is a very exciting possibility to accelerate the win-now talent around Wemby. However, this appears to be an unlikely scenario. Regardless, the Spurs are in an ideal position this draft.
Winner #3: Houston Rockets
The Rockets lost their own 12th overall pick to the Thunder. However, Houston still came out as winners because they owned the Nets pick which jumped up to three. The Rockets owned this pick as part of the James Harden trade making the deal look even worse for the Nets retrospectively. Similar to the Hawks this gives the Rockets a ton of optionality.
The Rockets showed a lot of potential last year and could be a playoff team next year with the right moves. They also have a promising young core highlighted by Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson. This creates an interesting scenario for the Rockets. Do you lean into the youth and draft at the top or do you build off your veterans and further accelerate the timeline around Sengun and Green by targeting for a star? Could you trade down and get the best of both worlds? No matter what direction they decide on, the Rockets are extremely well-positioned.
Loser #1: Detroit Pistons
Despite having the best odds and not being able to fall past five the Pistons fell as far as possible. Making it the third straight season the Pistons fell to pick-five. Posting an atrocious 14-68 record and in year five a rebuild urgency is at an all-time high for the Pistons. Making this drop particularly unfortunate. The Pistons desperately need another talented young offensive player and would have loved to have more options within the top three.
After the lottery rumors came out about the Pistons potentially moving on from GM Troy Weaver. This should have already been considered however the timing of this report is interesting. Despite how frustrating this drop is for fans and the organization it might not be the worst thing in the world. Pick five still gives the Pistons a chance to get a much-needed spacing wing such as Zaccharie Risacher or Cody Williams. Nevertheless, this is a disappointing outcome for the pistons.
Loser #2: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are perhaps the biggest loser of the lottery. They had a 45.8% chance to retain their top six protected pick but it ultimately fell to the Spurs at eight. The Raptors are in the early stages of their rebuild and could have desperately used a lottery pick to pair with Scottie Barnes. This all becomes worse when considering the context of the original deal. At the 2023 trade deadline, the Raptors traded this top-six protected pick in exchange for Jakob Poeltl. A move acceptable for a contender but not a team that was about to enter a rebuild.
The Raptors still have a first-round pick from the Pascal Siakam trade. However, they also questionably traded another first-round pick at the deadline for Kelly Olynyk. The only possible positives of this situation are that the Raptors’ pick projections to the Spurs weren’t delayed another year and they now own their picks until 2030. However, the Raptors’ rebuilding timeline will be delayed by not having a lottery pick this year. Ultimately this situation is a result of both bad management decisions and bad lottery luck.
Loser #3: Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are in a similar position to the Pistons. They were top three in odds and fell. In the Hornets case, they fell from the third-best odds to the sixth pick. The Hornets have been in a deep rebuild for five-plus years and posted a record of 21-61 this season. Charlotte needs another young star. Brandon Miller showed tons of promise as a rookie and LaMelo Ball is great when healthy but has severely struggled with injuries. The Hornets could use a talent upgrade at any position.
A guard for LaMelo Insurance and to pair in the backcourt with him is an intriguing option. Alternatively, they could draft another wing to pair with Miller. All of this is still possible at six but the Hornets could have used more options towards the top of their draft, especially considering the stage of their rebuild. Furthermore, the Hornets need to get the sixth pick right which could be challenging in this year’s draft.
