Playoff season is officially here, as the first play-in games get underway Tuesday evening. This is the time of year when legacies are stamped or destroyed, history is made, and some players will make themselves a lot of money. At the end of it all, a new (or repeat!) champion will be crowned, and we’ll gear up to do it all again in October.
Every team remaining has one goal in mind: a Larry O’Brien trophy. While some teams are more likely to win it than others, each team has a player or two that’ll play a crucial role in their fates. Without further ado, one X-factor from each playoff team:
Atlanta Hawks: F De’Andre Hunter
There’s no way around it; the modern NBA is a wing’s league. Unless you happen to possess an all-time great (see: Jokic) elite teams generally have at least one versatile, big wing. That’s what De’Andre Hunter is supposed to be: a 6’8″, 225 shutdown defender who provides value on the other end.
At times, he is. At other times, he’s not. The numbers are staggering: Hunter shoots over 6% better from the field in wins than he does losses, as well as averaging more rebounds and assists. When he pairs those numbers with additional attentiveness on the defensive end, he gives Atlanta a bona-fide two way wing liable to explode at any time. When he struggles – as he tends to in losses – the Hawks lose the extra dimension they need to compete. Either way, Atlanta figures to be an early exit; even the most dramatic Hunter emergence shouldn’t change that.
Boston Celtics: F Jayson Tatum
Am I cheating by simply picking the most important player on the roster?
That is how good this Celtics team is – the only thing they need is for their best player to play like their best player. This year, we’ve seen Jayson Tatum routinely defer to his über-talented teammates, sacrificing shots and stats along the way. And, as nice as that is, it’s rare that a kumbaya-style, equal-opportunity attack wins a championship. When you look at almost every champion in the history of the NBA (besides you, 2004 Pistons), there’s been a hierarchy; a clear-cut best player, responsible for guiding the team through treacherous waters.
This isn’t to say Tatum should embody the spirit of late-2000s Kobe and chuck up thirty shots a game. He simply has to appreciate the moment, play his game, and embrace being the best player on his team. If he can do that four times a series, there’s zero reason why this year’s parade can’t have green and white ticker tape.
Chicago Bulls: G Ayo Dosunmu
The Bulls are terrible.
But, by the grace of some celestial being, they’ve made the postseason. A couple breakout performances can spur runs for even the lowest seeds; just ask Erik Spoelstra’s Miami Heat.
Which brings me to Ayo Dosunmu. The third-year guard has felt like a breakout waiting to happen since the moment he was drafted; unfortunately for Ayo and the Bulls, it just never fully materialized. Nonetheless, Dosunmu is a solid, albeit streaky, player who can easily swing a game or two for Chicago. He’s shooting 50% from the field and 40% from three, including a startling 43% from beyond the arc since the New Year. Yes, he only averages 12.2 points per game, but he seems to be peaking at the right time. The guard exploded for 92 points across three consecutive games in March, and he’s scored in double figures in 11 straight heading into the playoffs.
Dosunmu won’t win the 2024 Bulls a championship; I’m not sure anybody could. When he’s on, though, he has the firepower to win the Bulls any given game.
Cleveland Cavaliers: G Max Strus
The Cavs are a confusing, streaky team full of confusing, streaky players.
So why shouldn’t their X-factor be the streakiest of them all? Max Strus certainly fits the billing. He’s naturally volatile; for example, the sharpshooter made seven threes in his first game in Cleveland, but only touched that mark once more the rest of the season. Strus shoots nearly 36% from deep in wins, but under 33% in losses. While that number isn’t large enough to be a catch-all, it’s certainly indicative of his value to the team.
The Cavaliers probably aren’t going to win a championship this year. Making an Eastern Conference Finals would probably count as a success, but if they somehow manage to go further, Strus will play a big part. If he can have a month like November – where he shot 46/39/81 – Cleveland will have a chance. If we get December Strus – 35/29/77 – forget about it.
Indiana Pacers: G/F Aaron Nesmith
This won’t be the first time I wax poetic about Aaron Nesmith (you can find the first time here) and it probably won’t be the last. After a slow start to his career, the 24-year old has taken a leap in 2024, averaging career highs in every major statistical category except free throw percentage. His growth has been integral to the Pacers’ success, playing 28 MPG while pacing the team in 3P% at 42%.
If it isn’t already apparent, I believe in the power of shooters. A good, hot shooter can flip a playoff series, and Nesmith has the capability and opportunity to do just that. The fourth-year shoots a mind-boggling 48.4% from three in wins, compared to just 32.6% in losses, making him one of the NBA’s premier barometers for team success. On top of his shooting prowess, he can change games defensively. Opponents shoot below their averages from every area of the floor with Nesmith as the primary defender, and, at a rangy 6’5″, he’ll be tasked with defending big wings throughout the postseason.
I don’t mean to suggest Nesmith is a superstar. He only averages 12.2 PPG, and the Pacers need their best players to show up if they want to advance. However, if a breakout postseason from Nesmith is in the cards, Indiana’s odds to make a run improve dramatically.
Miami Heat: F Jaime Jaquez Jr.
This is a different team than the one that shocked the world en route to the NBA Finals in 2023. The 2024 version is without playoff standouts Gabe Vincent and the aforementioned Strus, and the sharp-shooting Duncan Robinson is battling injury. All in all, they’ll have to look for new faces to provide the spark that carried them through 2023.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. could be that spark. It’s rare that you see a rookie acting as a key player on a good team, but Jaquez’s age (23) and unique skillset makes him invaluable to coach Erik Spoelstra. Standing at 6’6″ and 225 lbs, he’s a stocky, strong wing who adds versatile offense and tough, physical defense. While his three-point shooting (32%) isn’t great, he makes enough to keep a defense honest.
Jaquez earns the X-factor moniker for one reason: you just can’t predict how a rookie fares in a playoff setting. Maybe he rediscovers the form that helped take his UCLA Bruins to the 2021 Final Four; maybe he shrinks. For a player who means as much to the Heat’s success as Jaquez, that range of outcomes is enough for him to tip the scales, one way or another.
Milwaukee Bucks: G Damian Lillard
Picking an X-factor doesn’t get any simpler than this.
Damian Lillard hasn’t played poorly this season; most teams would love 24 and 7 from their point guard on a nightly basis. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, he hasn’t been himself, either. He’s been generally inconsistent, mediocre when deployed next to Giannis Antetokounmpo, and headache-inducingly bad defensively. None of this was envisioned when the Bucks mortgaged their future (and handed Jrue Holiday to their biggest rival) to acquire him this offseason. His up-and-down regular season drew to a close with the Bucks finishing just 49-33, 15 wins out of first.
Milwaukee will likely enter their first-round matchup against Indiana without Giannis’s services, as he deals with a calf strain. The onus will be squarely on Dame to step up. Even if Antetokounmpo returns, the Bucks are nowhere near championship contenders without a locked in, rejuvenated Lillard willing to contribute on both ends of the floor.
New York Knicks: F Bojan Bogdanović
What is there to make of the Knicks?
On the one hand, they’re deep, well-coached, and led by one of the game’s best guards in Jalen Brunson. On the other hand, they’re just 21-28 against teams over .500, they’ll be without All-Star Julius Randle, and head coach Tom Thibodeau’s playoff track record is poor. One thing is for certain, though – New York will need scoring from someone other than Brunson if a deep run is in the cards.
This is where Bojan Bogdanović comes into the picture. After a torrid start to the season with the Detroit Pistons (20 PPG, 42% 3PT), the Knicks acquired Bogdanović at the trade deadline. Since then, his numbers have taken a dramatic turn for the worse; all of his major numbers are down, as well as his efficiency.
While a minutes reduction should shoulder some of the blame, Bogdanović has mostly just looked like a different player. The Knicks acquired him to score, and to do so efficiently; so far, he’s failed. In the playoffs, that won’t fly. For New York to pose a threat, Bogdanović will have to be the best version of himself – the one we saw earlier this year.
Orlando Magic: G Jalen Suggs
Watching the Magic feels a bit like you’ve gone back in time.
If you like physicality and defense, this is the team for you. Out of 20 postseason teams, they rank dead-last in offensive efficiency, and second-to-last in points per game. They thrive off defense, mucking games up and slowing down opponents in any way possible.
It’s only right, then, that their X-factor be one of their most important defensive players. Jalen Suggs has turned himself into one of the NBA’s better point-of-attack defenders, using his 6’5″ frame to bother his man and snag 1.4 steals per game. He relishes taking on the opponent’s best guard, and often does so to great success. Offensively, he’s turned himself into a good shooter (40% 3PT) and he’s excellent in transition. Orlando won’t go far, but whatever success they do have will revolve around how Suggs’s two-way capabilities translate to the playoffs.
Philadelphia 76ers: G Buddy Hield
Buddy Hield has never gotten enough love for my liking.
He’s consistently been one of the best shooters in the NBA since his rookie season in 2016. Despite playing for four different teams, he’s never averaged fewer than 10 points, and he’s been productive regardless of if he’s starting or not. On the flip side, Hield’s also never been to the playoffs.
That’s not a knock on the guy; he’s played for several of the league’s worst franchises. However, this does mean that we don’t know how he’ll perform. This is significant, because the eighth-year man will be counted on in a big way. Philly needs spacers for Joel Embiid, and Hield will be an instrumental part of those plans. If he’s making shots, this offense teeters on unstoppable. If not, he’ll leave a significant burden for Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to bear.
