The 2023-2024 NBA season is over. Now that the NBA Play-in tournament teams are known, the big question is: Can any of these eight teams make a long playoff run?
The 2024 NBA playoffs mark the fifth rendition of the league’s Play-In tournament. For the first four years, the teams that earned the seventh and eighth seeds through the NBA Play-In tournament did not extend a series to seven games, let alone win a round. That changed last year.
Is Any 2024 NBA Play-In Team Capable Of Matching The Lakers and Heat Playoff Runs Last Year?
Not only did one 2023 Play-In tournament advance out of the opening round of the playoffs, but each conference had one of its final seeds win multiple rounds. The Los Angeles Lakers advanced to the Western Conference finals before being swept by the eventual NBA champions, the Denver Nuggets.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat—who became the first eighth seed to defeat a No. 1 seed since 2011—made it to the NBA finals before seeing their season come to a crashing end. The Nuggets defeated the Heat in five games to capture their first NBA title.
Before discussing this year’s Play-In tournament, here is a historical perspective on the No. 8 and No. 7 seeds.
While the Heat produced the first upset of a No. 1 seed in over a decade, they became the fifth team to do so overall. Similarly, five No. 2 seeds have taken down a seventh seed. But the 2010 playoffs were the last time that occurred.
2024 NBA Play-In Tournament Details
The NBA Play-In tournament will run Tuesday through Friday of this week.
The Western Conference will start the party with a pair of games on Tuesday. The Los Angeles Lakers, in the Play-in tournament for the third time, will visit the New Orleans Pelicans in the 7th/8th game. Following the conclusion of that game, the 9th/10th contest will tip off, featuring the ninth-seed Sacramento Kings hosting the No. 10 Golden State Warriors.
The loser of the Lakers/Pelicans will host the winner of the Warriors/Kings on Thursday. The winner of the Lakers/Pelicans earns the No. 7 seed.
New Orleans is in the Play-In tournament for a third straight year, while Golden State is tourney-bound for the second time.
The Eastern Conference’s tournament will run Wednesday and Friday. No. 8 Miami Heat will visit the No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers, and the No.9 Chicago Bulls will host the No. 10 Atlanta Hawks. The loser of the No.7/No.8 game will then host the No. 9/No. 10 winner.
The Hawks are in the NBA Play-In tournament for the third straight year. The Bulls and Heat are making their second straight trip to the tourney.
The Hawks, Bulls, and Kings will likely be done after one or two games. But if they get lucky and make the playoffs, they will be easy outs in the first round. Also, the No.8 seed in the Eastern Conference doesn’t have much of a chance against Boston.
The Celtics are just too good for any play-in games, and it would be a massive surprise if the C’s don’t get to the NBA finals. The Celtics are a combined 7-1 against the 76ers and Heat this season, including a sweep of Miami.
The 2024 Playoffs officially begin on April 20.
Who Can Make A 2024 Playoff Run?
The Eastern Conference No.7 Seed
While I expect Miami and Philadelphia to advance to the playoffs, I think the 76ers will earn the Eastern Conference’s No.7 seed as long as Joel Embiid and De’Anthony Melton play. The 76ers and Heat split the season series with two wins, though the Sixers won the final two games.
The Sixers are 31-8 when Embiid plays and 16-27 without him. They are also 19-5 when Embiid and Melton are in the starting lineup.
Philadelphia and Miami have split their last 14 contests. The Heat defeated the 76ers four games to two in the 2022 playoffs.
Regardless of which team ultimately nabs the seventh seed, the Knicks are very vulnerable without Julius Randle.
” I think that they [the Knicks] are vulnerable to everyone,” a former NBA scout told Last Word On Basketball. “They have too many players playing big minutes but are very limited offensively. That’s why [Jalen] Brunson has to score so many points. If he doesn’t score, they are really limited as to where to go. They win because they defend.”
New York won the season-series 3-1 against Philadelphia, but the Sixers have won 16 of the 19 matchups when Embiid has played.
The Knicks also won the season series against the Heat 2-1 and six of their last 10 regular season contests overall.
Moreover, the Heat—finally healthy—are the fifth most efficient defensive team, while the 76ers are 11th. However, they are a top-10 defensive team with Embiid. Since 2020, every NBA champion and most NBA finals participant has finished in the top third of the league in defensive rating.
Philadelphia has a better chance than Miami to beat Milwaukee if Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy and Boston. However, I don’t see anyone besides the Celtics getting to the NBA Finals from the East.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers have proven they are always a threat with a healthy Anthony Davis and LeBron James. The Lakers, who won the 2020 NBA championship, are 2-0 all-time in the Play-In tournament. They have won six of their eight playoff series during this stretch.
Like last year, LA is healthy, entering the playoffs and playing some of its best basketball. The Lakers went 17-9 after the all-star break, compared to 16-7 a season ago. The difference is that the Lakers were good on the defensive end last season (fourth in defensive rating post-all-star break), while they have not been very good on that end this year.
Besides the fact that AD or LeBron can dominate a series, the Lakers are capable of making a run—whether they earn the No.7 or No. 8 seed—because the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are inexperienced, and the Nuggets are not deep.
The Nuggets have a top-2 starting unit in the game. But their bench leaves a lot to be desired besides Reggie Jackson.
LA has recently dominated its series against New Orleans and OKC. Meanwhile, the Lakers have lost eight straight (including last year’s playoffs) and nine of 11 to the Nuggets overall.
If the Lakers earn the seventh seed, they will face a tough matchup against Minnesota or Phoenix. The Lakers have also struggled against the Timberwolves, losing five of the past eight contests over the last two seasons.
While the Lakers theoretically be better served to “be the eighth seed, they should not “tank” against the Pelicans.
New Orleans Pelicans/Golden State Warriors
I like New Orleans slightly better if they fall to the Lakers in the 7/8 Play-In game, as the Pelicans are 2-1 against the Warriors this year.
New Orleans has played well lately, going 16-11 and posting the sixth-best defensive rating after the all-star break. The Pelicans are a very deep team and have a solid starting unit. The Pels, who are 28-25 against teams with a winning record, have the sixth-best defense in the league.
Moreover, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, or CJ McCollum can carry the team offensively. The Pelicans are 33-24 in games that Williamson and Ingram have started this year.
I am not as confident in the Warriors as I am with the Pelicans, but if Golden State can get into the playoffs, they are capable of upsetting OKC. The Warriors have played exceptionally well down the stretch, going 19-10 while recording the seventh-best defensive rating after the all-star break.
Golden State is an extremely veteran team with tons of championship experience. Plus, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson can get hot at any point. The Thunder won the season series 3-1 against the Warriors, but two of their wins came in overtime.
