With the NBA playoffs on the horizon, it’s time to start thinking about teams in a playoff setting. In the playoffs, every team shortens their rotation and plays their stars more. How this impacts bench rotation players is interesting. For the Celtics last year Grant Williams had a significant minutes reduction in the playoffs. Of course, matchups and performance in the series play a big role in these rotation changes. However, given what we know about these players and past trends we still have a good idea of how the Celtics rotation will change in the playoffs. Let’s dive into how the Celtics rotation will change during this year’s upcoming playoffs.
How Will The Celtics Rotation Change In The Playoffs?
The Starters
Tracking the starters’ minutes in the playoffs is less interesting. Because all five starters will likely get slight minute increases. Jayson Tatum is a candidate to see one of the larger minute increases. He’s currently averaging 35.8 minutes per game but played 40 minutes per game in last year’s playoffs. Kristaps Porzingis will also get one of the more significant increases. He’s currently at 29.8 minutes per game which is largely a precaution to prevent injury. Look for Porzingis’ minutes to move closer to 35 minutes per game, especially in series where the Celtics are playing against teams with a lot of size.
Jaylen Brown could also see a bump up in minutes. He’s currently averaging 33.6 minutes per game if Brown’s brilliant play continues this could move up to 37 plus per game. Brown averaged 37.6 minutes last playoffs. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are receiving 33.1 and 32.7 minutes per game respectively. While both players could see slight increases expect this number to stay within the same range.
Al Horford
This year Al Horford perfectly adapted to his new role and became a super sixth man. Currently, Horford is averaging 27 minutes per game last playoffs he averaged 30.8 minutes per game. Even with his advanced age and the presence of Porzingis, Horford may play within this same range. Given the Celtics star power and Horford’s age, it’s unlikely he will play 30-plus minutes a game but somewhere within the range of 25 and 28 feels realistic. Mazzulla will likely always want one of Porzingis or Horford on the court in the playoffs. He also likes to use supersized lineups with Porzingis and Horford together. Horford’s defensive and three-point skill set combined with his incredible experience will allow him to get big minutes in the playoffs. Ultimately, Horford is one of the most trusted Celtics and his playoff experience will be very valuable.
Payton Pritchard
Payton Pritchard is having a career year both in terms of production and minutes. Averaging 8.8 points and 21.8 minutes. This includes a stretch in the last 10 games where Pritchard is averaging 13.7 points and 5.1 assists per game. Pritchard is a spark plug off the bench he has real value as a shooter and playmaker. The trouble for Pritchard in the playoffs is his six-foot-one frame. In the playoffs, matchup hunting becomes more commonplace making it difficult to have even one bad defender on the court. Pritchard has never averaged more than 13 minutes per game in the playoffs; he averaged 5.5 minutes per game last playoffs. However, Pritchard has improved a lot and deserves solid minutes, especially in the early rounds. Look for Pritchard to receive around 14-17 minutes per game come playoff time.
Sam Hauser
Sam Hauser is another Celtic having a career year. Averaging 21.6 minutes per game, Hauser has established himself as one of the league’s best spot-up shooters netting 42% of his three-point attempts. This skill set will keep Hauser on the floor during the playoffs. Furthermore, Hauser is an underrated defender despite being constantly attacked Hauser has great positioning and IQ defensively. This allows Hauser to hold up defensively which will be crucial in the playoffs. The only question around Hauser in the playoffs is his lack of experience. He only received 6.9 minutes last playoffs. However, with his skill set and improvements, Hauser’s play should translate to the playoffs. While his minutes could slightly dip to around 17-19 per game look for Hauser to be an important part of the Celtics playoff success.
Luke Kornet
Luke Kornet has become a more important part of the Celtics rotation this year. Averaging 15.3 minutes per game it will be interesting to see what Kornet’s role is come playoff time. Last year he only averaged four minutes in the playoffs compared to 11.7 minutes in the regular season. Kornet has solid value, as a lob threat, and shot blocker. But his mobility and playoff experience could make him tough to trust in a playoff setting. The Celtics will also lean on Porzingis and Horford more in the playoffs.
Kornet has had more opportunities with Porzingis and Horford consistently taking games off. As a result, I see Kornet’s minutes getting a similar reduction to last year seven or eight minutes feels like a solid amount for Kornet. Teams typically cut their playoff rotation to eight players as the ninth guy off the bench Kornet could completely fall out of the rotation. However, Boston may turn to him more in an early series where they need size.
Xavier Tillman
The Xavier Tillman-Kornet rotation battle will be something to watch in the playoffs. Tillman averages 14.3 minutes per game just behind Kornet’s 15.3 average. However, Tillman offers a different skill set. Tillman is a high-IQ player on both ends of the floor. He has solid mobility and passing with a knack for rebounding. This skill set makes Tillman a player you can trust in the playoffs. Furthermore in last year’s playoffs with the Grizzlies Tillman averaged 30.5 minutes, eight points, and eight rebounds per game. Although Mazzulla appears to trust Kornet more right now with Tillman’s skill set and playoff experience the Celtics could turn to him more. It’s very unlikely Tillman sees a minute increase considering how playoff rotations always get smaller. However, it’s possible Tillman gets slightly more minutes than Kornet or takes all his minutes entirely.
