Two of the nation’s most recognizable college-basketball programs will square off when No. 1 North Carolina meets No. 9 Michigan State in the NCAA tournament second round in Charlotte.
Both teams cruised in their tournament openers Thursday. UNC dominated No. 16 Wager, 90-62, and MSU rolled to a 69-51 victory over eighth-seeded Mississippi State.
But Saturday’s meeting should be much closer. Let’s dig into the odds and matchup between the Tar Heels and Spartans, with predictions, odds and the best NC sportsbook promos for March Madness.
North Carolina vs Michigan State Odds & Details
- Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024
- Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Spectrum Center; Charlotte, NC
- Spread: North Carolina -3.5 (-114, FanDuel), Michigan State +4 (-110, bet365)
- Moneyline: North Carolina (-164, FanDuel), Michigan State (+155, BetMGM)
- Total: Over 139.5 (-115, BetMGM) / Under 140.5 (-110, FanDuel)
North Carolina vs Michigan State Betting Preview
Unsurprisingly, this is a game of contrasting styles since the Tar Heels are an elite offensive team, and the Spartans are great defensively. Michigan State is a nasty No. 9 seed, the 16th-ranked team per KenPom, though it is just 3-5 in its past eight games.
The Tar Heels are 19th in the nation in points per 100 possessions but are also a little underrated defensively due to their seventh-ranked Defensive Efficiency Rating per KenPom. Armando Bacot is a rebounding machine, the storied program’s all-time leading rebounder, and Carolina ranks seventh in the country in rebounds per game.
The Spartans, like most Big Ten teams historically, will want to play at a slower pace, especially given their 310th-ranked tempo (65.1 possessions per 40 minutes). They can’t win in a track meet against the high-flying Heels.
But at the end of the day, Carolina probably will be too strong. Plus, the line won’t likely be high enough wager MSU to cover. So I’ll take North Carolina to reach the Sweet 16 and cover the 3.5-point spread.
I’m also advocating for Under 140.5 points since both teams are strong defensively, and there’s been fewer than 140 points in five of MSU’s past seven games.
PREDICTION: North Carolina wins 75-65
ATS: UNC -3.5 (-108)
O/U: Under 140.5 (-110)
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