The Ivy League will look to earn its 6th win in the last 11 NCAA men’s tournaments when the No. 13 Yale Bulldogs take on the No. 4 Auburn Tigers in East Region action on March 22.
The Bulldogs bring a veteran-laden team to the tourney that will be looking to match Auburn’s offensive prowess without giving up too much on defense. That is a tall task against a top 40 team using Effective FG%.
Let’s look at this matchup, and give a best bet to use for Friday afternoon’s game.
No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Auburn Odds
Odds current as of Mar. 21 and can be found at bet365 Sportsbook.
- Spread: Yale +12.5 (-110) • Auburn -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Yale (+575) • Auburn (-850)
- Total: Over 140.5 (-110) • Under 140.5 (-110)
The spread opened at 12.5 and has fluctuated since. But the number is back where it started. The total is up two points since opening lines were posted.
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Yale vs. Auburn Prediction
The Bulldogs take on the No. 4 seed in the East, but also the 4th-best team according to KenPom. Auburn’s defense is tops in Effective FG% and is top 100 in turnover rate. The Tigers will need to create turnovers to keep the Bulldogs at bay, but Yale’s experience makes that difficult. Only 17 teams were better at securing the ball on offense.
Yale can also match Auburn’s strength near the basket.
Auburn will have to get better all-around play from their backcourt. They have five guards that play at least 17 minutes per game, but each averages at least 0.9 turnovers per game. They’ll have to protect the ball, even if Yale isn’t a turnover-driven defense.
The biggest liability for the Bulldogs is their lack of depth. They can go seven-deep if needed, but it does not compare to Auburn head coach’s Bruce Pearl from digging deep down his bench. 10 players average double-digit minutes, which can keep everyone fresh despite lacking scoring depth.
Scoring depth and Yale attempting to control the ball lead to the best bet for this game.
Yale vs. Auburn Best Bet
Under 140.5 Points at bet365 Sportsbook (-110)
This game doesn’t play in the early window Friday, which is a great way to bet the under for the full game and first half, but that may not matter. Multiple outlets including KenPom are predicting 67 or fewer possessions total for this game. That also helps lean towards the under.
Ball control and trusting senior guard Austin Mahoney and junior guards Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas against the size of Auburn will go a long way to minimizing possessions.
Yale will have to slow down the pace in the first half to avoid getting crushed. The lack of depth and a fast pace would take them out of this game, and potentially away from the under if garbage time starts sooner than later.
