St. Mary’s, the West Coast Conference champion and No. 5 seed from the West Region, will be on upset watch when it meets 12th-seeded Grand Canyon in the final NCAA Tournament first-round game Friday in Spokane, Washington.
The Gaels (26-7, 15-1 WCC) are ranked 15th in the most recent AP poll and have won 23 of their past 25 games, with only home losses to Missouri State and Gonzaga blemishing their past two-dozen-plus games. St. Mary’s is 3-3 in neutral-site games this season but have won 12 straight games away from its campus, including a two-point win in Spokane against the Zags on Feb. 3.
But the Antelopes make a formidable opponent, particularly since coach Bryce Drew has been a giant slayer since his playing days at Valparaiso. Grand Canyon (29-4, 17-3 WAC) is making its third tournament appearance in the past four seasons but is 0-2 in its previous NCAA games, including a 12-point loss to Gonzaga last year.
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No. 5 St. Mary’s vs No. 12 Grand Canyon Odds
- Spread: St. Mary’s -5.5 (-108, DraftKings) • Grand Canyon +5.5 (-110, bet365)
- Moneyline: St. Mary’s (-230, DraftKings) • Grand Canyon (+200, BetMGM)
- Total: Over 131.5 (-105, BetMGM) • Under 131.5 (-105, FanDuel)
The Gaels have been dominant defensively, sitting second in the nation in points-against per game (58.7) and 15th in KenPom’s Defensive Efficiency rating (94.9). St. Mary’s has only allowed 71-plus points in three of its 33 games and is 19-1 when it scores in the 70s this season.
So this game will be a race to 70 points. The Antelopes have won the race in most of their games, averaging about 80 points per game (44th) and averaging about 114 points per 100 possessions per KenPom. Grand Canyon has only failed to score 70 points in five of its games but boasts a 4-1 record in those.
Still, St. Mary’s is a top-20 team in the country, per the writers and KenPom, and defense doesn’t slump this time of the year. Plus, the Gaels lead the nation in opponents rebounds per game (27.5), and the Antelopes are 51st in rebounds per game (38.1).
St. Mary’s vs. Grand Canyon Prediction
Each of St. Mary’s five starters scores in double-figures per game, which is beneficial compared to the Antelopes, who rely on WAC Player of the Year and DePaul transfer Tyon Grant-Foster to score. Grant-Foster is averaging about 20 points per game, one of just three Antelopes player to surpass 10 points per game.
Grant-Foster, at 6-7, is a matchup nightmare at guard. But he’ll have to contend with the West Coast Conference Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis and the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year center Mitchell Saxen.
If the Antelopes are in the game, they’ll undoubtedly get a boost from the Gonzaga loyalists in Spokane that are used to rooting against the Gaels. There’s a strong possibility the third time will be the charm for Grand Canyon, since it’s played highly competitive games in each of the past two tournaments.
But I’m not betting on St. Mary’s to lose.
St. Mary’s vs Grand Canyon Best Bets
St. Mary’s -5.5 (-108) vs Grand Canyon
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Antelopes are a fine potential spoiler. But with the Gaels’ defensive prowess and depth, taking them to cover 5.5 is a great option given the prospect of them pulling away with a late run.
If it comes down to the end, the Gaels are just 314th in the nation in free-throw percentage (.678), and the Lopes shoot 75.3% from the stripe.
But I don’t think it’ll matter enough for it to adversely affect this game.
Under 131.5 Points (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a low bar to clear, but the Gaels don’t give up 70-plus points and are 9-4 in games with fewer than 132 points.
There’s the potential for nerves and off shooting, especially since the clubs will be waiting around all day for their 7 p.m. local time tipoff.
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