An improbable run and a coach firing weren’t enough to slow down the University of Alabama-Birmingham Blazers from winning the AAC Tournament with three double-digit wins to punch their ticket.
The 12 seed in the East takes on No. 5 San Diego State. The Mountain West rep was last season’s championship game runner-up, and are looking to make another deep run.
Can UAB become the latest 12-seed to top a 5?
San Diego St. vs UAB Odds
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Mar. 19.
- 🐲 Moneyline: SDSU (-278), UAB (+225)
- 🏹 Point Spread: -7 (-108), +7 (-112)
- 🏀 Total: Over 139.0 (-110), Under 139.0 (-110)
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San Diego St. vs UAB Prediction
San Diego St. traded some defense for offense in 2023-24, taking a dip defensively but saw scoring improve in a tough Mountain West conference. The “dip” led to the Aztecs ranking 38th in points per game allowed.
Jaedon LeDee is the player to watch for SDSU, as he has a chance to single-handedly carry the offense, while ending offensive possessions on the other end of the court. The senior forward averaged 21.1 ppg, 8.4 rebounds per game, and shot 55.7% from the field (41% from three).
The Blazers will have to eliminate LeDee on at least one end of the court to survive because their own offense relies so much the open man. UAB has four players averaging double figures points, three of which play at least 30 minutes per game. That is great for sticking around except for one you face one of the most feared defenses in the tourney.
San Diego St. vs UAB Best Bet
Under 139 Points at DraftKings Sportsbook (-110)
Both teams have a chance to make the under look bad, but the Blazers haven’t played this good of a defense since November when the Maryland Terrapins paid them a visit.
Neither team is great at ball distribution either. In a pinch or in crunch time, having good movement is paramount, which will probably undo both teams sooner than later.
The Aztecs are below average from the free throw line. That could come back to haunt them, especially as the spread continues to hang between 7-8 points. If UAB is on the verge of covering/tying the game, expect the Blazers to force the Aztecs to stop them, or foul them. They rank 20th in offensive free throw rate, and SDSU is 200th defensively.
Both teams excel on the offensive glass and are average on defense. Second-chance points are another way to draw fouls.
This should be a fun game, but ultimately ends with the Aztecs on top. Whether they cover depends on the Blazers continuing to play for fired coach Andy Kennedy. What’s playing above their skis for one more game?
