A lot has gone wrong for the New York Knicks. Their players have missed 138 games this season, with close to 100 between Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson. They have also struggled with minutes, as the lack of key rotation pieces has forced Tom Thibodeau to run his players into the ground. Josh Hart averaged over 40 minutes per game for close to two months. Yet, even after all that, the Knicks have survived. They remain in the thick of the playoff race and have not faltered, unlike some other teams (76ers, Heat, Pacers). Currently, they are the third seed in the Eastern Conference and 2.5 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks. Their defense remains top-notch, and their offense puts up points when required. However, when Jalen Brunson sits, the offense struggles, and this weakness will be exploited.
No Jalen Brunson, No Offense: Knicks Struggle When Star Sits
Brunson’s Offensive Impact
By any metric, Brunson is having a historic season. He averages 27.4 points, 6.5 assists, and 3.6 rebounds on 48/40/84 shooting splits. The only other players to average 27+ points, 6+ assists, and 40% from three-point range are Larry Bird, Stephen Curry, and Damian Lillard. When Brunson plays, the Knicks have an offensive rating of 122.0, a 92nd percentile ranking. If Brunson could play every minute of every game, the Knicks would have the second-best offense in the league. He has an offensive estimated plus-minus (most trusted catch-all metric) of +5.6, sixth in the NBA. He does this on one of the league’s highest usage rates, and still has a top 15 assist rate in the NBA.
However, Brunson’s biggest impact is one that doesn’t show up in the box score. Brunson is second in the NBA with almost 1250 drives. In those 1250 drives, he generated 767 points and 105 assists. Because Brunson is so crafty in the paint, the defense gravitates towards him and collapses inwards, leaving open shooters in the corners. The defenders have entered a mode where anybody but Brunson has to flourish for New York to win, and considering the lineups the Knicks play, it’s an effective strategy. This was displayed against the Lakers on February 5th, where they doubled him 30 times. Brunson scored 36 on 15-31 from the field, but it wasn’t enough.
Knicks Offense without Brunson
According to Fred Katz of The Athletic,
“In 39 games post-trade, the Knicks are averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions when Brunson is on the court. For perspective, that would be the second-best figure in the NBA if it belonged to a team. When Brunson is on the bench, that number craters to 102.9, which would be the league’s worst offense in three seasons.”
That is a very telling figure. And it is just post-trade. For the 2023-24 season, the Knicks offensive rating without Brunson is 108.6. This accounts for when Randle was healthy, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett were on the team, and every other moment this season. When Brunson is off the court, their offensive rating ranks 29th in the NBA, below teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, Memphis Grizzlies, etc.
Besides Randle and Brunson, the Knicks have no other primary ball-handler. They traded away both of their backups to acquire OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa, and while that trade has worked well for the defense, it has led to a slow, steady decline of the offense when Brunson sits. Brunson has the ball in his possession for over 8.3 minutes per game, the third-highest mark in the league. The next one on his team? Randle with 3.8 minutes. But he’s injured. Since Randle went down, Brunson is up to 8.7 minutes, while Hart clocks in at second, with 3.3 minutes of possession per game. Hart has shot 39.5% from the field since January 28.
Lacking an Offensive Creator
Nobody on the Knicks is a good shot creator, partly because they don’t have to be. Brunson isn’t a point guard in the traditional sense, but he has an innate sense of making the right pass when needed, and his ability to drive and kick the ball is sorely missed. All of the Knicks bigs mainly play in the paint and are not good floor spacers. 70% of Achiuwa’s attempts have come within eight feet of the rim, and that number balloons to 85.9% for Isaiah Hartenstein. Most of Donte DiVincenzo and Hart’s baskets are assisted, increasing the burden on Brunson. They brought in Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanović to fix these issues. During the 2022-23 season, 50.5% of Burks’ field goals were unassisted. Burks was supposed to be the secondary ball-handler behind Brunson. Instead, both Burks and Bogdanović have tapered off, making them unplayable down the stretch.
The Last Word
For the Knicks to make a deep run in the playoffs, they need one of their current players to step up, or they desperately need Randle and Anunoby to come back healthy. Their defense will remain good. But the Knicks’ offense struggles when Brunson sits, and it is a major concern as they head toward the playoffs.
