Last year’s Cinderella will be looking to make another deep run, but will have to get past one of the best scorers from the Big Ten in the first round.
The East Region’s No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats takes on No. 8 Florida Atlantic Owls for the right to play Connecticut or Stetson in the Round of 32. This matchup tips off March 22 at 12:20 PM ET.
News came out Mar. 20 that Wildcats center Matthew Nicholson would miss this game. Does his absence impact the betting odds enough to get away from the Cats?
No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 8 FAU
Odds current as of Mar. 21 and can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Northwestern +3 (-115) • FAU -3 (-105)
- Moneyline: Northwestern (+130) • FAU (-155)
- Total: Over 142 (-108) • Under 142 (-112)
This game opened with Northwestern as the Moneyline favorite, but quickly changed with questions surrounding Nicholson.
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Northwestern vs. FAU Prediction
The loss of Nicholson doesn’t necessarily doom Northwestern, but it does take away a trusted player from a team that has lacked depth since the Clinton administration.
Boo Buie is a dude, but losing one of the other trusted Wildcats players puts an even bigger target on his back for the FAU defense, and more pressure to once again carry the offense.
Vlad Goldin, Johnell Davis, and Alijah Martin are among the players returning from FAU’s improbably Final Four run last season, which gives the Owls a foundation that keeps teams alive during March Madness. The big concern for the Owls is the drop-off on defense. After a top 40 defense paired well with their offense in 2022-23, it fell outside the top 100 while the offense essentially remained the same.
The FAU defense will have their hands fulls with Northwestern’s elite 3-point offense. Buie (44.3% from three), Ryan Langborg, (41.5), and Brooks Barnhizer (35.2) are dangerous from deep. Barnhizer will be expected to carry more of the offensive load sans Nicholson while also being the top defensive stopper for the Cats.
This 8/9 matchup is as close as it gets.
Northwestern vs. FAU Best Bet
Northwestern Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook (+130)
The Owls are catching a break with Nicholson out, but the Wildcats have battled injuries all season and still locked in the No. 4 seed for the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Northwestern going at least three-deep from the arc is also terrifying for an FAU team that has had their share of defensive lapses against much worse opponents.
The spread is at a one-possession number, which lends to betting the underdog outright for a better price.
