Who doesn’t love a Cinderella story?
Every March, there are a handful of underdogs that slay giants, capturing our collective imaginations and imprinting themselves in history. Every college basketball fan has one they remember: whether it be FAU in 2023, VCU in 2011, or UMBC’s historic slaying of UVA in 2018, they’re stories that we look back upon with fondness and some amount of revelry.
This year figures to be no different; the 2024 field appears to be one of the more wide-open in recent memory. As in any year, some teams in this field will shock, and others will disappoint. Come Thursday at noon, we’ll start to find out who’s who – for now, though, we can only hypothesize. Here are my picks for three first-round underdogs that can make deep runs and cast themselves as Cinderellas in the unfolding drama that is the NCAA tournament.
#11. Midwest Region: Oregon Ducks
I’m not the first person to reach this conclusion, and I certainly won’t be the last, but Oregon is a real threat. They’ve already been a Cinderella once this year; after a middling regular season and a fourth-place Pac-12 finish, the Ducks won four games in a row in Las Vegas to win the Pac-12 tournament. They capped off their season-saving run by beating #1 seeded Arizona in the semifinal and #3 seeded Colorado in the title game.
At first glance, Oregon doesn’t have the makings of a team that can go deep into the NCAAs. Until the buzzer sounded against Colorado, they weren’t even projected to make it. They only went just 17-13 in regular-season play, they have some ugly losses (@Cal, vs. Syracuse) and they rank #55 in KenPom adjusted efficiency, below teams like Iowa and Drake. Their NET rating is even worse, slotting them in at #59.
However, there are legitimate reasons for optimism with this bunch. Star center N’Faly Dante’s return from injury in early March coincided with Oregon’s best stretch of the year, and the Ducks have five guys that shoot 34% or better from three-point range. Their defense can lock down when it needs to – they held opponents under 68 points in every Pac-12 tournament game. Finally, there’s head coach Dana Altman; the 34-year coaching veteran is a grizzled, battle-tested leader. In his eight NCAA tournament appearances with Oregon, he’s reached the round of 32 every single time; Altman has led the Ducks to the Sweet 16 five times.
There are some questions here, but Oregon has experience, a power-5 pedigree, and elite coaching on their side. If Oregon can get by South Carolina in round one, don’t rule out a deep, Cinderella run for Dana’s Ducks.
#13. West Region: Charleston Cougars
This is Charleston’s second straight year as a popular Cinderella pick, so I won’t fault you if you’re not buying into the hype this time around. But… this team is really, really good. After a solid regular season, they won the CAA tournament, outlasting Stony Brook to win the championship game in overtime.
The Cougars are a deep, deep team that can beat you in a variety of ways. They take (and make) a bunch of threes, cashing in on nearly 11 a game, shooting 35%. They compete on the glass, out-rebounding opponents by an average of 4.6 per game. Charleston has three guys capable of winning them games; junior guard Reyne Smith leads the way (12.8 PPG), but junior forwards Ante Brzovic and Ben Burnham are equally as dangerous. The Cougars rebound well, too, besting opponents by an average of five boards per game. Charleston also boasts one of the longest rotations in the country, with 10 guys averaging 10 or more minutes per game.
The holes are obvious; the Cougars haven’t beaten anybody. Despite finishing at 27-7, their best win was probably a December win against St. Joe’s, and they went 0-3 against teams in the field of 64. They sit at a measly #97 in NET rating, and they flamed out in round one last year.
But what better time to record your first quality win than now? Alabama is ripe for the picking; they sport a bad defense that comes in having given up at least 88 points in six of their last seven games. Charleston’s depth matches up with the fast pace Alabama likes to play, and if the Cougars get hot from three? Watch out. If they can get through the Crimson Tide, they’d face St. Mary’s or Grand Canyon. While both of those teams are good, they’re not unbeatable. A Cinderella Sweet 16 berth is there for the taking.
#11. West Region: New Mexico Lobos
After a 12-1 non-conference start, New Mexico went just 10-8 in a tough Mountain West before winning four games in four days to win their conference tournament. In doing so, they defeated three teams who ultimately made the NCAA tournament, limiting each opponent to under 66 points.
New Mexico is one of the better offensive teams in the country, averaging 81.5 points per game. Led by star senior guard Jaelen House, they boast four players averaging at least 12.5 points, and sophomore guard Donovan Dent chips in with 5.6 assists. The Lobos consistently win rebound, assist, and turnover battles, and they’ve recorded five Quad 1 wins. New Mexico ranks an impressive #22 in the NET rankings, and the conference tournament showed they can win close games. To boot, New Mexico has enough size to compete with the big boys.
The Lobos’ profile isn’t airtight. Their defense is middle-of-the-road, and they don’t shoot the three particularly well. As impressive as their resume is, they have six Quad 1 losses, including bad ones to Air Force and UNLV. The one ranked team they faced outside the Mountain West was St. Mary’s, who beat them by 14.
I think enough is in their favor to overcome these holes. Balanced, experienced, well-rounded teams tend to thrive in March; New Mexico is all of the above. Additionally, Clemson presents a relatively soft first-round draw, as a (probably overseeded) six seed. The Lobos grade out a full 14 spots higher than Clemson via KenPom, and the winner of Baylor/Colgate isn’t an insurmountable second-round challenge. Don’t be shocked if New Mexico keeps their hot streak going and becomes 2024’s Cinderella.
