With a month to go in the NBA’s regular season now is the perfect time to evaluate team’s contention chances. After analyzing the top-tier contenders we shift our attention to some pretenders. These pretenders must have some level of playoff expectations and regular season success yet they aren’t a threat to win the title or their conference. For these three pretenders, it wouldn’t surprise me if they all were first-round exits. Let’s dive into to three teams I am classifying as pretenders.
3 NBA Title Pretenders
Cleveland Cavaliers
There’s a lot to be excited about with this Cavs season including competing for the two seed, another great Donovan Mitchell season, and a career year from Jarrett Allen. However, the Cavs’ playoff collapse last year remains a massive concern when evaluating them. It’s hard to shake the image of the Knicks dominating them in the first round last year. After the series, there were real concerns about the viability of this roster in a playoff setting. The Cavs improved their role players, especially on the wings but the flaws of this team are still clear. Sure the Cavs could win a first-round series with these improvements but winning two or more series would be shocking.
Despite its defensive advantages, the double big pairing is flawed offensively. Neither Allen nor Evan Mobley are capable shot creators or floor spacers. In today’s league having two non-shooting and non-playmaking big men is disastrous. The duo offers a repetitive skillset as does the backcourt of Mitchell and Darius Garland. Both undersized guards, especially Garland present defense concerns in the playoffs. Furthermore due to the big men issue the Cavs are overly reliant on the guards scoring abilities. This makes the Cavs offense very predictable and throwing bigger matchups on the backcourt can further hurt their effectiveness as we saw last year. Ultimately the Cavs roster construction lacks balance and is flawed in the playoffs lending them to an early upset. If the Cavs have another disappointing series look for them to shake up the roster in the off-season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves had a legitimate chance of being contenders. Minnesota’s dominant top-ranked defense and Anthony Edwards’ rise to superstardom have been central to their success this season. However, a devastating injury to Karl-Anthony Towns greatly changes the team’s outlook. The Timberwolves have been in a three-team battle for the number one seed with the Nuggets and Thunder. Without Towns, the Timberwolves will likely drop to the three seed, possibly even to the four. Last year should serve as a reminder of how valuable Town is to this team. While Towns is targeting a first-round playoff return, a knee injury for a 7-footer is never a good sign and his impact could be significantly reduced.
Even with Towns, this is a flawed team. The Timberwolves have a mediocre 17th-ranked offense. The lack of scoring and creation outside of Edwards is a massive problem, especially in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Timberwolves lack playmaking and ball handling outside of 36-year-old Mike Conley. The West has plenty of experienced teams at the bottom of the playoff picture that could pull off a first-round upset against Minnesota. Considering these factors and that this core has had no true playoff success together it’s hard to imagine the Timberwolves being a real threat in the West. Ultimately despite an incredible defense and a rising superstar in Edwards a Timberwolves playoff run feels improbable.
Phoenix Suns
While most people have given up on teams like the Lakers and Warriors the Suns remain a lurking threat. The Suns are listed at +1400 odds to win the finals making them the fifth title favorites via Bet365. Notably ahead of teams like the Thunder and Timberwolves. The talent and upside of Phoenix is undeniable. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are two of the league’s most gifted scorers and top-ten-level players. Bradley Beal is an elite third and talented offensive player. However, the Suns’ four through 13 in their rotation are among the worst of all playoff teams. The Suns rank 29th in bench scoring and appear to be still figuring out their rotations. While depth isn’t the most important factor in the playoffs, having this poor of a bench and not establishing consistent rotations is problematic, especially for an injury-prone core.
The Suns trio of Durant, Booker, and Beal have played just 23 games and 455 minutes together. History shows us it’s hard to win a title or make a substantial playoff run without a ton of court time together. However, the most important concern is the Phoenix’s awful 4th quarter play. In clutch time play the Suns have a 16-19 record, a 104.9 offensive rating, and a -8.1 net rating. The Suns have a total 4th quarter point differential of -200 the worst in the league. These stats are on par with a rebuilding team not one with championship aspirations. Both the stats and eye test show the Suns are an ineffective clutch-time team which is particularly problematic in the playoffs.
The Suns also don’t match up well with the top teams in the West making their flaws even harder to overcome. Phoenix’s star power certainly gives them a chance and makes them the most intriguing of these three teams. However, in a fully healthy West, it’s hard to imagine Phoenix overcoming season-long problems to make a title run.
