On Saturday, in the most important matchup of the season in the SEC, Tennessee came into Rupp Arena and hung 103 on the Wildcats as the Cats dropped to 15-6. It was the first time Kentucky had given up 100 in an SEC game since a 1993 battle with Arkansas. As of February 5th, Kentucky currently sits at 7th on Kenpom in offensive efficiency, and 102nd in defensive efficiency. Over the past four years (2019 had none) there have been eight other teams to be in the top ten in offense, and outside the top 100 on defense on February 5th. How did they do in March, and where did they finish on defense? Kentucky might still have time to right the defensive ship.
What is the Precedent for Kentucky’s Playstyle?
2019-20 LSU Tigers
2020 only had one team with this gap between offense and defense, and it was Will Wade’s best LSU bunch. They were 6th in offensive efficiency and 127th in defensive efficiency. On February 5th, they gave up 99 en route to a road loss to Vanderbilt to drop to 17-5 on the year, ending their ten-game win streak. They would finish third in the SEC but get even worse defensively. The Tigers ranked 197th in defensive efficiency. There would be no tournament due to COVID-19.
2020-21 Iowa Hawkeyes
On February 5th, Iowa was the top-ranked offense in the nation. Yet, they ranked 134th in defensive efficiency. On February 5th, the Hawkeyes sat at 13-5 after giving up 89 in a home loss to 7th-ranked Ohio State. They would finish third place in the Big 10, losing in the second round to Illinois. In the NCAA Tournament, the two-seeded Hawkeyes would lose in the second round, giving up 95 points to Oregon. The good news is the Hawkeyes finished the year ranked 75th in defense. The 59-spot rise is the highest on the list.
2020-21 Toledo Rockets
Our first Mid-Major, Toledo was 6th in offense, and 168th in defense on February 5th. They were 16-4 on February 5th, after beating Akron. The Rockets would go 15-4 in the conference, being the first seed in the MAC Tournament. A second-round upset at the hands of Ohio would land them in the NIT. The three-seeded Rockets would lose to Richmond in the first round. They would get even worse defensively, finishing the year 182nd in defensive efficiency.
2020-21 LSU Tigers
The final group from 2021, Will Wade makes his second appearance. The Tigers were 9th in offense and 138th in defense on February 5th. The Tigers sat at 11-6 following a road loss to number ten Alabama. In the SEC Tournament, the three-seeded Tigers would lose to that same Alabama team in the championship. The NCAA Tournament would see the eight-seed Tigers lose in round two, to number one-seeded Michigan. However, LSU would slightly improve on defense, finishing the year 124th in defensive efficiency.
2021-22 Iowa Hawkeyes
Following in Will Wade’s footsteps Fran McCaffery also makes his second appearance. On February 5th, Iowa ranked 7th in offensive efficiency and 107th in defense. On February 5th, they were coming off a double overtime loss at Penn State, to fall to 14-7, just 4-6 in conference play. In the Big 10 Tournament, the fifth-seeded Hawkeyes went all the way to win the Big 10 Tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, Richmond appears again as the 12-seeded Spiders upset the Hawkeyes in the first round. Iowa would see quite the defensive jump, however, finishing the year 80th in defensive efficiency.
2022-23 Iowa Hawkeyes
Back again for the three-peat, Iowa ranked 2nd in offense, and 146th in defense on February 5th. Iowa sat at 15-8, coming off a home win against Illinois. Finishing fifth in the conference, 13-seed Ohio State would pull off the upset in the first round of the Big 10 Tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, ninth-seeded Auburn would score 83 en route to a win over Iowa. The Hawkeyes finished the year 168th on defense.
2022-23 Xavier Muskateers
The only Big East team on the list, on February 5th, the Musketeers were 5th in offense, 101st on defense, the best February defense on the list. On February 5th, Xavier was 19-5, and 11-2 in the Big East with a road win over eventual National Champions, UConn. In the Big East tournament, the second-seeded Musketeers would lose to top-seeded Marquette in the Big East championship. In the NCAA tournament, the third-seeded Xavier squad would lose in the Sweet 16 to second-seeded Texas, also allowing 83. Xavier would however finish 64th, the highest of any team on the list.
2022-23 Miami Hurricanes
Ranking 10th in offensive efficiency and 116th in defensive efficiency on February 5th, the Hurricanes are by ranking the “worst” offense here. On February 5th, they were 18-5 coming off a road win against number 20 Clemson. They would go on to win the ACC regular season while getting upset in the second round of the ACC tournament by fourth-seeded Duke. The NCAA Tournament was a completely different story. The number five seed Hurricanes went all the way to the Final 4, by far the best finish on the list. Only gave up over 80 just once, and only lost to the eventual Champs in UConn. Miami would finish the year 99th in defensive efficiency.
Does Kentucky Have Time to Fix it?
Kentucky is 102nd in defensive efficiency. If they were included on the list they would be the second-best defense. Kentucky also has a Hall of Fame head coach, these teams don’t have that. Kentucky still has numerous quad-one games left, and a Tennessee rematch. The team is young, the potential to right the ship and get into the top 60 is there. The season isn’t over until you go down in March, but Kentucky’s defense has gotten significantly worse since the last time I touched on them. If they don’t start improving now it may be too late.
