The New Year is always an exciting time for college basketball fans. No more buy games and 40-point spreads. It’s time for conference play where we teams get to make statements every week until March. The SEC has just as many teams with a chance atop the standings as any other conference in the country. The conference is littered with potential tournament teams, and good matchups shouldn’t be hard to come by.
Predicting the 2024 SEC Standings
1. Kentucky Wildcats
Most people will have Kentucky or Tennessee atop the standings. Those two feel like the most complete teams in the conference. The case for Kentucky lies in their terrific backcourt and depth. Kentucky has four elite guards, Reed Sheppard being the best of them. He’s a legit SEC Player of the Year caliber guy. What it comes down to for me is I think Kentucky matches up with the firepower of teams like Alabama and Texas A&M better than Tennessee does. Tennesse’s offense has gone as far as Dalton Knetch has this year, when he’s been off so has the Vols. Kentucky has so many guys who can get their own. Tennessee has been much better on the defensive end, but Kentucky is still so young. I like them to figure out their defensive woes better than Tennessee to get consistent offense.
2. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee sat atop the SEC preseason standings. There are two teams in the SEC that both Kenpom and the NCAA’s NET Rankings both really like. Tennessee is one of them and for good reason. The Volunteers currently rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency on Kenpom. The flipside to Kentucky’s firepower argument is that Tennessee is physical, and elite on defense today. Questions about getting in a shootout aside, defense travels and against your middle and low-tier SEC teams, they’re a safe bet night in and night out. No one is waiting to see what Tennessee can be. They have the 22nd most division one experience in the country. They have the highest floor in the SEC. Upsets of the Vols should be few and far between. They and Kentucky are more 1A and 1B than one and two.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
The next three teams are just as close together, maybe closer than Kentucky and Tennessee. Another team the numbers like is Alabama. I give the Tide the edge in the standings for many of the same reasons I did Kentucky. They have a Mark Sears and not many players in the nation can do what he does. He is currently putting up video game numbers on what may be the best offense in the country. You don’t have to worry about him having an off night because it simply does not happen. I hear the defensive concerns loud and clear, but I ask that we remember that last year Alabama didn’t start the year great defensively either. By March they were one of the best defenses in the country. I have optimism they can address the problem.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies play at one of the slowest paces in the country, a Buzz Williams staple. Despite that, they are one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The thing with teams that play like that is you have to be at your best game. With so few possessions, the mistakes are just magnified that much more. Keeping up with the dynamic duo of Wade Taylor and Henry Coleman is hard enough as it is, pair that with the fact that the Aggies might be the best offensive-rebounding team in the country. They get so many more of those very important possessions than you, it’s nearly impossible to keep up if you don’t straight-up have elite talent.
5. Auburn Tigers
The last handful of years, Auburn made a living off of outshooting you and there was nothing you could do but hope for a miss. This year they could not be more different. They rank 172nd in the country in three-point percentage. With them not being truly elite at one certain thing is giving me second thoughts about ranking them any higher, although they aren’t truly bad at anything either. You name a stat whether it’s a basic counting stat or the most obscure counting stat you can find, they’re at least average. Johni Broome anchoring this ship by being the best big in the SEC compared with the fact that they still are capable of getting hot from three and you have a really good team.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Tolu Smith has finally returned which officially makes the Bulldogs a dangerous team. Josh Hubbard has been one of the most used players in the country for the last two months, the return of Tolu Smith allows him to sit back into a role more natural for him. It shouldn’t take much time for Smith to figure out his fit with the team given his experience, he’s an instant impact guy. The Bulldogs have owned the glass all year, Smith will help that while giving them an elite scorer. Pair all this with the fact they rank 12th in defensive efficiency and you have a team that should outshoot every seeding projection out right now.
7. Florida Gators
This Florida team is as solid as it gets. Tyrese Samuel is one of the best defensive players in the country. He and Alex Condon, who is criminally underrated anchor a terrific defensive frontcourt while making Florida another SEC team that typically owns the glass. Walter Clayton and Will Richard in the backcourt give Florida the balance to score at will and make up for any offensive production the frontcourt may lack. I don’t know how many upsets they’ll pull, but they’re a team that’ll be really annoying to play on a random Tuesday. I feel like the Gators being right in the middle of the standings represents that.
8. Arkansas Razorbacks
It feels low given all the preseason hype and how the transfer portal was supposed to carry them this year, but the Razorbacks just haven’t put it together. As high as the ceiling may be, the floor is just as low. They have blown several chances to get marquee wins, while the Duke win was great the UNC Greensboro loss hurts. This team just has so many guards that are so similar. They score and not much else. Someone in that backcourt has got to step up, make plays, and defend. Until someone does, they will not find consistency. Eric Musselman can have his best coaching job yet if he gets this team to a top-five finish like they were projected to be.
9. Ole Miss Rebels
One of the most debated topics around college basketball is how legit is top of the standings Ole Miss. Like most debates, the truth is somewhere in the middle. We learned this year that a team coached by Chris Beard can only be so bad. With an almost NBA-like roster construction of surrounding Allen Flanigan with defenders, the Rebels have built a 13-0 record. I don’t think the ceiling is there. They just lack overall talent. The depth does not move me. However, the defense is there, they have good defenders at all levels. The defense will always travel. They’re the lowest-listed team that I think has above a 50/50 shot of getting into the tournament.
10. South Carolina Gamecocks
Second-year coach Lamont Paris has the Gamecocks with just one loss which was by five to a great Clemson team. Meechie Johnson has been one of the best scorers in the SEC and is a serious all-conference team candidate. The difference with South Carolina is they haven’t beaten a Memphis-caliber team like Ole Miss, and they aren’t led by Chris Beard. I think these close wins against lesser teams become 5-10 point losses. Progress, and they can beat some really good teams if Meechie gets hot, but the talent isn’t there yet.
11. Georgia Bulldogs
To credit Georgia, they don’t have a UNC Wilmington, UNC Greensboro, or Southern-type loss on the resume. The three losses are all solid power six teams. They beat teams they’re supposed to. Georgia’s main problem is size. Their top five players in minutes are all under 6’9. In a conference with so many teams that dominate the glass, I just don’t see them performing very well. A year too soon for Mike White to get back to the dance.
12. Missouri Tigers
As great as Sean East is, he’s only one man. Missouri has the same defensive issues they did last year, without many talented scorers to offset it. They don’t have the pace they did last year either. They force turnovers on defense, but it’s all or nothing. If it’s not a steal it’s a bucket for the opponent. A disappointing season after last year, but Dennis Gates still has Missouri at a bright future.
13. LSU Tigers
The gap from 12 to 13 and 14 is massive. Matt McMahon has started off his LSU tenure without the best results. Injury issues have plagued this Tigers team, and the transfers brought in to try to bandage up some issues from last year haven’t performed. Jordan Wright and Will Baker are taking all the shots, it’s just not an efficient offense. The defense is solid, but they just can’t score.
14. Vanderbilt Commodores
The only SEC team with a losing record and currently at the bottom of the standings is Vanderbilt. The Commodores have losses to Presbyterian and Western Carolina. They are 0-4 against Power Six competition. It is time to have the Jerry Stackhouse discussion. This is not college football, by year five your program should be above this. Ezra Manjon can do all he can but this team isn’t very good at anything. Jerry Stackhouse has failed this program.
