Now that we have more than two months of the NBA season under our belts, we have enough of a sample size to make projections for the end of the season. There are plenty of futures betting markets to be taken advantage of from the MVP award to eventual champions to regular season win numbers. Here are five long-shot bets (all over +200) that are worthy of flyers.
All the lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
5 Best Long-Shot NBA Futures Bets
Atlanta Hawks to Make the Playoffs (+205)
The Hawks are currently 11th in the Eastern Conference with a 13-19 record. That is certainly not where they wanted to be at this point in the season. However, their overall performance has been better than their record indicates. In fact, they have a +0.3 net rating for the season, putting them on pace for a 42-win season. They have lost too many close games. Now that they have Jalen Johnson back, they are likely to go on a run and move up in the standings. Their offense is still elite, ranking fifth in the league.
Plus, since they traded away their future picks for Dejounte Murray, they have no incentive to tear down, tank, and rebuild. If anything, they are likely to be buyers at the trade deadline. Moving past the likes of the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and the Indiana Pacers shouldn’t be too challenging for this talented Hawks roster.
Dallas Mavericks to Win 50+ Games (+240)
The Mavericks are currently 19-14, good for the 6th seed in the West. Luka Doncic has kept them afloat with an MVP-caliber performance in the last month in Kyrie Irving’s absence. They are in good shape considering Irving only played in 17 games this season. He will come back soon, pushing the Mavs offense to new heights. The Mavericks are getting enough contributions from role players, so if Doncic continues his career season, they could easily make a run in the second half of the season.
They will also presumably be active in the trade market. If they can acquire a third-best player for this team, 50 wins is an achievable goal. They only have to go 31-18 the rest of the way to get there.
Houston Rockets to Win 45+ Games (+360)
The Rockets are one of the most surprising teams of the season, maintaining an elite defense, and ranking sixth in the entire NBA in defensive rating. Despite their 15-15 record, they have a +3.1 net rating, putting them on pace for a 49-win season in terms of point differential. Similar to the Atlanta Hawks, they lost a lot of close games they could have won. According to NBA.com clutch data, they are 6-11 in close games. If this were to progress to the mean, the Houston Rockets could easily get to 45 wins.
Their elite defense and good coaching combined with the offensive creation of Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun are good enough to get there.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Win the MVP Award (+450)
Joel Embiid is the current frontrunner for the MVP. He has been dominant on both ends of the floor while improving on his scoring and playmaking from his MVP campaign last season. However, he already missed seven games and might miss more due to his current ankle injury. There is now a 65-games played minimum to qualify for major NBA awards, including the MVP. This could favor Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
SGA has taken over the 2nd place in MVP rankings from Nikola Jokic. His scoring volume and efficiency are better than the rest of the field while playing exceptional defense, leading the league in steals per game. Plus, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 22-9 and will likely be a top-4 seed in the Western Conference. Considering the potential voter fatigue issues for Jokic and Embiid, Gilgeous-Alexander could sneak his way into his first MVP award.
Oklahoma City Thunder to Win the Western Conference (+1000)
The OKC Thunder have been dominant on both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in offensive rating and third in DRTG. They outscore their opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions, the best mark in the Western Conference. They have a surefire superstar who passes the “best player on a championship team” test in Gilgeous-Alexander, an elite defensive center in Chet Holmgren and a high-level crop of two-way role players in the likes of Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort. Furthermore, they have a billion extra draft picks and young players who they could use in a trade at the deadline.
No team in the Western Conference should really scare them except for the Denver Nuggets. Even against the reigning champions, the Thunder have a 2-1 record for the season, both wins coming in Denver. If they continue their regular season performance, they will likely have a top-2 seed in the conference, which will give them home-court advantage for the majority of the playoffs. The chances of OKC pulling this off are far greater than the +1000 odds suggest.
