Last week’s NBA picks against the spread went 7-6-1, with the best bets unfortunately going 0-3. For the season, the picks are at 14-12-1, an alright 53.8% win rate. Let’s see if we can build some momentum with an exciting 11-game Friday, November 17 slate. These games are a part of the In-Season Tournament, so the stakes should be higher than your normal regular-season game.
All the lines are taken from FanDuel.
NBA Bets for November 17, 2023
Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets: O238 -110
Both teams are top-10 in pace, bottom-10 in defensive rating, and the top half of the NBA in offensive rating. The Hornets currently allow the most points per 100 possessions in the entire NBA, and the Bucks’ offense has looked better in the last few games. It should be a high-scoring occasion.
New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards: O227.5 -110
The Wizards play with the fastest pace in the league by a significant margin, with 104.9 possessions per game. They also can’t stop anybody, especially physical teams with size like the Knicks. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle should have no trouble scoring on Washington, making this another high-scoring affair.
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs: SAC – 8.5 -110
The Spurs have been absolutely terrible the past two weeks, losing games by 41, 21, and 36 in a ten-day span. They can’t score or stop anybody. Not playing a traditional point guard and using Jeremy Sochan as their primary ballhandler has not worked. Plus, their best offensive player, Devin Vassell, is unavailable to play. The Kings, on the other hand, righted the ship after their superstar De’Aaron Fox returned from injury as they won four straight. They should be able to take care of business in San Antonio.
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors: BOS -7.5 -110
The Celtics are unstoppable, with a 9-2 record and the best point differential in the league. All of their last seven wins have been in double digits, with their only losses coming in overtime or a single-possession game. They may be short-handed with Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis questionable to play, but they still have enough to dispatch the depressingly mediocre Raptors.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks: O236 -110
Joel Embiid is listed as questionable, and unless we know his status for the game, it’s close to impossible to pick in this matchup. If he plays, the Sixers should be favored to take this one. It’s best to stay away, but over makes more sense here considering the pace the Hawks like to play with and the tempo Philadelphia could play with if Embiid misses the game.
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers: CLE -8.5 -110
Both teams have been dealing with injuries to start the season, and neither has had the opportunity to play their full-strength groups so far. The Pistons are still missing Monte Morris, Joe Harris, Jalen Duren, and Bojan Bogdanovic. They don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Cavaliers, even if they are also short-handed and struggling. This will be a great opportunity for Cleveland to build a winning streak, and they should secure the victory.
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans: DEN -5.5 -106
This is another matchup between short-handed teams. The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray, while the Pelicans are dealing with CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III, and Jose Alvarado’s absences. New Orleans beat the Mavericks in their last game, but considering that they lost five straight before that, their uninspiring individual performances, and their ranking in the bottom five in both offense and defense in the last two weeks, it’s hard to pick them against the reigning champions. The Nuggets should take care of business.
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls: CHI -2 -110
These two teams met two days ago, and the Magic won on a Paolo Banchero game-winner. It is an unwritten NBA rule that teams tend to split these back-to-back games against one another. That makes sense between two evenly matched teams as well. The Bulls have a slight edge here.
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz: O237.5 -110
The Jazz are missing their defensive anchor, Walker Kessler. They have struggled defensively without him all season. The Suns are close to getting their Big Three back, with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant playing and Bradley Beal being day-to-day. Considering the pace the Jazz like to play with and the Suns’ firepower, this should be an offense-first game.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers: U223.5 -110
The Trail Blazers have the worst offensive rating in the NBA due to their long list of injuries. The Lakers also struggle to create good looks in the half-court. Both teams play at a slow pace, keeping their games low-scoring. Considering they are both defense-first teams, this should be a grit-and-grind game.
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers: HOU +7.5 -114
It’s unclear how a Clippers team that hasn’t won a game since the James Harden trade would be favored in this NBA bet by 7.5 points against the 6-3 Rockets. Yes, Los Angeles has more talent on paper, but they haven’t been able to put it together yet and their offense looks out of sorts. On the other hand, Houston has won 6 straight and has the best net rating in the league in the last two weeks. At the bare minimum, they should make this competitive.
Best NBA Bets:
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers: HOU +7.5 -114
New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards: O227.5 -110
Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets: O238 -110
