As the 2023-2024 NBA season tips off, it is never too early to speculate who might emerge as the front-runner in the season-long Most Valuable Player race. The MVP award is the most prestigious individual honor a player can achieve in the NBA. The award often goes to the player who has the most significant impact on their team’s success. Much of this can be left up to the voters’ interpretation, but typically the award will go to a player who is having an outstanding season while also helping their team contend for a top seed. Although it is far too soon to make any concrete predictions let’s take a way too early look at the contenders in tiers.
NBA MVP Race Tier List
MVP Tier One: Nikola Jokić +400
The reigning finals MVP, Nikola Jokić, enters the season as the favorite to win the MVP award. He previously claimed the honor in back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022. With the Nuggets retaining most of their core players Jokić will have a great opportunity to once again average close to a triple-double. Jokić is one of the few players capable of scoring 30 points with 10+ rebounds and assists on a nightly basis without sacrificing efficiency. There is no other player like him in the league. Jokić’s influence on the Denver Nugget’s organization is undeniable. While voter fatigue may play a factor here, Jokić remains the front-runner for the MVP discussion.
MVP Tier One: Jayson Tatum +800
Jayson Tatum has consistently improved his game and is now a force to be reckoned with on both ends of the court. His scoring ability and leadership have been pivotal for the Boston Celtics. Tatum is the primary ball handler and scorer on a team that has lofty aspirations. With the new additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to the Celtics’s roster, he has his best chance ever to contend. These players more than make up for the loss of Marcus Smart and can help improve their standing while taking some pressure off Tatum’s shoulders. Last year Tatum finished last season with the most points scored. If he continues his rise up the NBA ranks and his team has their best season yet, he will be the first Celtic since Larry Bird in ’86 to win the award.
MVP Tier One: Damian Lillard +1500
Dame Time has arrived in Milwaukee and he is not wasting time getting started. Damian Lillard finished last season averaging a career-high 32 points per game on a middling Trail Blazers squad. After joining the Bucks, Lillard is set to play with the best group of talent he has ever been around, placing him in an excellent position to explode for a legendary season. He is certainly a long shot for the award considering his current odds but if Lillard continues his superb play he can certainly earn the honor, further solidifying his status among the NBA greats.
MVP Tier Two: Giannis Antetokounmpo +5oo
The “Greek Freak” Giannis Antetokounmpo has won the MVP award twice and remains a dominant force. His incredible athleticism, power, and defensive prowess make him an MVP candidate every season. If the dynamic duo of Damian Lillard and Giannis can reach their ceiling together Giannis is in line for another MVP and possibly even a finals MVP as well. Either Bucks player is a great pick for the award.
MVP Tier Two: Luka Dončić +550
Luka Dončić will win an MVP award at some point in his career but will this be the year? When Luka has the ball in his hands his game is eerily reminiscent of MVP James Harden. Both players expertly utilize the step-back three. They both shine when driving to the hoop and stopping on a dime for a pull-up jumper or euro-step layup. Both players also draw fouls at an insane rate. If the comparisons continue, Luka will emerge as the best offensive player of a generation and win an MVP. In Luka’s case for MVP, his team’s success will determine his chances. There are just too many questions surrounding the Mavericks team for me to put my full trust in Luka this season even though he showcases an all-around game and is just simply unstoppable.
MVP Tier Two: Devin Booker +1500
Devin Booker, who is currently surrounded by superstar talent, aims to be the standout performer for the Phoenix Suns. His scoring ability and clutch performances led the Suns to the Finals in 2021. If the Suns are the team everyone believes them to be, Booker should have a sincere shot at winning MVP. Typically, when players are surrounded by other greats it can often hinder their chances. However, if the Suns are a top seed and Booker is the scoring champion, which are both plausible, it would be difficult to avoid handing the award to Booker.
MVP Tier Three: Kevin Durant +1100
Kevin Durant is a constant threat in the race for MVP every year, as he should be. Durant is one of the greatest scorers ever to touch a basketball. His ability to score from anywhere on the court efficiently and effortlessly makes him a consistent candidate for the award if he can stay healthy. However, with a stacked Suns team, he will have to outshine Devin Booker and company to claim the award. While not impossible, his odds are certainly capped with the surrounding talent.
MVP Tier Three: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1500
Fan-favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a meteoric rise in the 2022 season averaging 31 points on 51 percent shooting. He increased his points per game output by seven compared to his previous season. Shai is a special talent with immense potential on a young team. As they continue to rise he will have an intriguing storyline to follow. If Shai can continue to elevate his game and lead this Thunder team to surprising heights he may emerge as a dark horse candidate.
MVP Tier Three: Stephen Curry +1500
Stephen Curry, a two-time MVP winner, remains one of the most electrifying players in the league. His unmatched shooting range and eye-popping performances give him a chance to win MVP every season. If Curry wins MVP this year he becomes just the 9th player to win the award 3 or more times. Jokić and Giannis also have the chance for the same honor. While it would be surprising for the Warriors and Steph Curry to continually find success at this level, he should never be counted out.
