Out of all the major awards in the NBA, predicting the Most Improved Player is the most difficult one. There isn’t a set criterion for the award, making it open to interpretation by the voters. Some value players stepping towards superstardom, while others prioritize lower-level players who improve the most. It is also hard to distinguish between a player improving his skill level versus a player thriving in a bigger role or a different opportunity. Nevertheless, I will take on the challenge and try to find the top five candidates to win the award in the 2023-24 season.
This will be in order of the best-value bets, going from fifth-best to best. All the lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Top 5 Candidates to win the 2023-24 NBA Most Improved Player Award
5. Tyus Jones +2200
This is a situation of an established player finally getting a larger role on a new team. Tyus Jones has been one of the best backup point guards in the NBA for the past few seasons. He has thrived every time he started in Ja Morant’s place, averaging 16.4 points, 4 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game in 22 starts last season with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Now that he is the full-time starter with the Washington Wizards, Jones has an opportunity to average those numbers for an entire season. That would mean he is increasing his averaged points from 10.3 and assists from 5.2. That would be such a significant bump that it would automatically make him a candidate for this award.
4. Anfernee Simons +1500
The 24-year-old combo guard finished last season with averages of 21.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. As good as these numbers were, there is another level Anfernee Simons can go to in the 2023-24 season.
With Damian Lillard’s departure, Simons is the clear number-one offensive option on the Portland Trail Blazers. He will have the ball in his hands more, run more pick-and-rolls, and take more shots. He will finally have a good pick-and-roll partner in Deandre Ayton, which should help increase his assist numbers.
As the season progresses, he will likely share most of the playmaking duties with rookie Scoot Henderson. However, he should still have plenty of opportunity to average over 25 points per game, making him a candidate to win this award.
3. Tyrese Maxey +1000
Tyrese Maxey’s situation is eerily similar to Simons’. A similarly dynamic scorer, Maxey will also have an opportunity to have an increased role in his team’s offense. James Harden will likely not be a part of the Sixers, making Maxey the primary perimeter creator. He will run pick-and-rolls with Joel Embiid and have more isolation opportunities. He is also a one-man fast break. With Harden gone, the Sixers will likely play faster, benefiting from Maxey’s speed and creativity in the full court.
After averaging 20.3 points and 3.5 assists per game with impressive efficiency last season, Maxey can only improve this year with the ball in his hands more. Someone needs to take on Harden’s production of 20+ points and 10+ assists, and Maxey is the only candidate in Philadelphia who can somewhat replicate that. A near All-Star level of performance shouldn’t be shocking from the 22-year-old.
2. Franz Wagner +3000
How little buzz the Orlando Magic and Franz Wagner are getting ahead of the regular season is mind-boggling. This is one of the NBA’s most fun and exciting teams, with two future All-Stars in Wagner and Paolo Banchero.
Wagner is only 22 years old and is coming off a season where he averaged 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on above-league-average efficiency. He is entering his third season in the NBA, and historically, third-year players take the biggest leaps. He has size, ability to create, and versatility in his scoring.
The Magic should be competitive and are a serious candidate to make the Play-In tournament. This should get more eyes on Wagner, who should easily be able to average over 22-23 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. +3000 for a player with that potential is incredible value.
1. Evan Mobley +2000
Despite all four worthy candidates above, Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers is the best bet in terms of value to win the 2023-24 NBA’s Most Improved Player Award. Another third-year player, Mobley has all the building blocks to have a monster breakout season.
Mobley had an excellent sophomore season as he finished as a finalist for the Defensive Player of the Year award. He led the Cavaliers to the best defensive rating in the regular season. There is no doubting his defensive prowess. Yet, the offensive production hasn’t matched his defensive impact yet. This season, that should change.
The Cavs have more shooting and floor-spacing with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang. This should make Mobley’s job inside the arc easier, as he can make plays in the short roll with his passing, mid-range shooting, and finishing. Team chemistry and fit will be better after a full season and an offseason under their belt. Mobley, who was underutilized offensively last season, should have a bigger role and will presumably attempt more than 12 field goals per game.
This should be enough to make him a 20+ points, 10+ rebounds, 4+ assists type of player and earn him his first All-Star appearance. If that’s the case, a +2000 value for him to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award can’t be missed.
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