Last but not least, we have the NBA’s Southeast Division. As it has been in the past few seasons, the Southeast is relatively weak, with no team expected to win close to 50 games. It’s home to reigning Eastern Conference champs, the Miami Heat, but after a disastrous offseason, they are a long shot to repeat last season’s playoff success. However, plenty of interesting storylines remain from this fascinating group of young, up-and-coming teams. So, let’s look at what the sportsbooks made of all this in the Southeast Division and make our bets on their win totals.
All the lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Atlanta Hawks – 41.5 wins – OVER
The Atlanta Hawks were the most mediocre team in the NBA last season, not winning or losing two games in a row for most of the season. They danced around the .500 mark for months before finishing the season 41-41. So, their over/under line makes total sense.
Yet, the Hawks were slightly better after they appointed Quin Snyder as their head coach with 22 games left in the season. They had a net rating of +1.6 in that span with the fourth-best offense in the NBA and managed to beat the eventual NBA finalists, the Miami Heat, in the play-in game.
With a full offseason under Snyder and more time for Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to develop chemistry, they should be better than a .500 team. Young is good enough to carry this team to a top-10 level offense, especially now that they have more shooting around him after John Collins’ departure. Unless they are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, this formula should be enough to get them 42 or more wins.
Charlotte Hornets – 30.5 wins – UNDER
The Charlotte Hornets have the talent to win over 30 games, especially if LaMelo Ball stays healthy all season. However, the vibes on this team give me a pause.
Charlotte brought back Miles Bridges after his year-long break following his domestic violence case. However, he didn’t get the contract extension he was hoping for. They also re-signed P.J. Washington only after it was obvious that he didn’t have an offer from another team. Kai Jones has been beefing with his teammates online and is no longer with the team.
I have concerns about the lack of veteran leadership and organizational discipline with the Hornets. Maturity is a clear issue with this team, and I’m not sure having your most significant offseason additions be rookies Brandon Miller and Nick Smith Jr. will help solve it. There is too much implosion potential with them to go with the over.
Miami Heat – 45.5 wins – UNDER
What a nightmare of an offseason the Miami Heat just had. Everything that could have gone wrong since making the NBA Finals four months ago went wrong for this franchise. They lost two key players in Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, without really replacing either. They lost the Damian Lillard sweepstakes after being seemingly in the lead all summer. Worse, their two biggest rivals in the conference, the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics, loaded up to create scary superteams.
Yes, this team has been dominant in the playoffs, and I never want to bet against Jimmy Butler, but they were also bad in the regular season last year, having a -0.1 net rating. Considering the depth they lost and the fact that many of their key players are on the wrong side of the aging curve, it’s hard to foresee how this team will add multiple wins to their last season’s record.
They continue to project as more of a postseason team than a regular-season juggernaut, and their win total will likely reflect that.
Orlando Magic – 37.5 wins – OVER
The Magic are the most exciting team in this division. They are stacked with high-end young talent at every position, but the question is: are they ready to compete now?
As talented as they are, the Magic still have plenty of holes. They don’t have enough shooting or high-level point guard play. They have incredible depth in the backcourt, but to fully meet expectations, at least one of Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Anthony Black, or Jalen Suggs must give them consistently solid minutes at point guard.
However, the frontcourt trio of Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. is scary. If Banchero and Wagner both take a step forward as offensive creators, this team can surprise people.
Even last year, the Magic had the point differential of a 35-win team. They had the 11th-ranked defense and the 26th-ranked offense. If they move up a few spots on the offensive end, they could easily improve three wins to hit this over.
A play-in spot is a very reasonable goal for this group, so they should be chasing wins all the way to the end of the season, which could help push their win total.
Washington Wizards – 23.5 wins – OVER
This is by far the lowest over/under line among all 30 teams, and it’s for good reason. The Washington Wizards arguably have the least talented roster in the league and have no intention of winning basketball games. They should undoubtedly be one of the three worst teams in the NBA.
Yet, all the Wizards need to go over is to win 24 games. That is not that difficult to do. There is always a team that wins less than 24 games every season, and there is a decent chance it will be Washington this year. However, betting on any team to win that few games is hard.
The Wizards still have a lot of veterans. Their rotation of Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert, Deni Avdija, and Daniel Gafford is not awful. This team has enough rotation-level NBA players to be semi-competitive to begin the season. And until they decide to trade away their players at the deadline, they can win enough games to hit this over.
Do I trust it enough to bet on it? Probably not.
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