The 2023 WNBA Finals will get underway on Sunday, with the No. 1 seeded Las Vegas Aces hosting the No.2 New York Liberty. The Aces, the defending WNBA champs, are in the Finals for the third time in the past five years. Meanwhile, the Liberty are in the finals for the first time in over two decades.
2023 WNBA Finals Game 1 Betting Preview: Can Liberty Get Another Big Win Over Aces
How the Las Vegas Aces Got Here
Las Vegas went 34-6 during the regular season, setting a WNBA record for most wins. The Aces are 5-0 in the postseason, with series sweeps over Chicago (2-0) and Dallas (3-0). Four of their five playoff wins have been at home. The Aces are 23-1 overall at home this year.
Las Vegas averages 86.2 points with a shooting slash line of .451/.358/.891 in their five playoff games. The Aces average 18.2 assists, 13.2 turnovers, and 39.8 rebounds (8.6 offensive).
Defensively, Las Vegas allows 71.4 points during the playoffs. The Aces’ opponents are shooting 36.8% from the field and 31.4% from the 3-point line. Their opponents also average 16.6 assists, 13.2 turnovers, and 37 rebounds (11.6 offensive).
A’ja Wilson has been terrific this postseason with 25.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks while shooting nearly 60% from the field. Chelsea Gray averages 16.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.4 assists. Kelsey Plum contributes 16.0 points and 3.2 assists, while Jackie Young adds 15.2 points, 6.4 boards, and 5.0 assists.
How New York Liberty Got Here
New York set a franchise record with a 32-8 regular season record. The Liberty are 5-1 in the postseason, sweeping Washington (2-0) and taking three out of four games against Connecticut. The Liberty are 19-3 on the road this year, including 2-0 in the playoffs.
New York averages 84.3 points a game this postseason while compiling a slash line of .427/.335/.874. The Liberty average 19.5 assists, 13.2 turnovers, and 38 rebounds (11.2 offensive).
Defensively, New York allows 80 points a game, with their opponents shooting 43.1% from the field and 33.8% from the 3-point line. Their opponents average 34 boards a game (9.2 offensive), 22 assists, and 11.2 turnovers.
Breanna Stewart has struggled most of the playoffs but has played well in the last two playoff games against the Sun. Stewart leads New York with 19.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.
However, Betnijah Laney has been the Liberty’s most crucial player this postseason, as she has come up with several big games. Laney averages 17.0 points, 5.2 caroms, and 3.0 assists while shooting 48.2% from the field and 43.8% from the 3-point line. Jonquel Jones had a big series against Connecticut and averages a double-double (16.5 points, 12.8 rebounds). Sabrina Ionescu averages 16.3 points, 3.2 3-pointers, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists.
WNBA Finals Game 1 Info
Matchup: New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces
Where: Michelob Ultra Arena
When: 3:00 p.m. (ET)
TV: ABC
Spread: Las Vegas Aces -4.5
Over/Under: Over 170.5 Points
Money Line: Las Vegas -195, New York +162
Head-to-Head
New York has handed Las Vegas half of its losses this season. The Liberty won the season series 3-2, including an 82-63 victory in the WNBA Commissioner Cup Final. The Commisioner’s Cup win was New York’s only victory in Las Vegas this year.
The Aces lead the all-time series 31-30.
Prediction
While none of the five regular season games between the Liberty and Aces were close, I expect each game in the finals to be very competitive. The Aces were the best home team in the league, and the Liberty were among the best road teams. However, it has been a week since both teams have played. Las Vegas last played on September 21, while New York played on October 1.
Las Vegas is 3-0 this year, including 1-0 in the playoffs with 6+ days off. New York is 0-1 this year with 6+ days off and 1-1 with four days off during the postseason.
I like the Aces to win the series opener. The Aces have homecourt advantage, and they have been good when playing after 6+-plus days off. The Aces are also the defending champs. Therefore, they have experienced the added pressure before and are better on the defensive end than the Liberty. I also believe the Aces will cover the point spread.
I expect this to be a pretty fast-paced game with lots of possessions. I like the over, as the teams possess the two most explosive offenses all season long. However, I will pass on the bet, as only two of the previous five games have surpassed 171 points.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces on Moneyline -195
Player Props
Breanna Stewart Under 23.5 Points (-130)
Jonquel Jones Over 12.5 Points (-145)
Jonquel Jones Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125)
Courtney Vandersloot Under 7.5 Assists (-130)
Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 Rebounds (-130)
Betnijah Laney Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110)
A’ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110)
Chelsea Gray Over 15.5 Points (-130)
