We are onto our fourth division preview. The Atlantic Division is one of the most anticipated divisions for the 2023-24 NBA season. The uncertainty surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers, the anticipation of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in a Boston Celtics uniform, and whether the New York Knicks can repeat last season’s success are some of the biggest storylines in the entire league. So, let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks made of all this craziness in the Atlantic Division, and make our bets on their win totals.
All the lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
2023-24 NBA Atlantic Division Over/Under Win Predictions
Boston Celtics – 54.5 wins – OVER
The Celtics don’t have the necessary depth to be a regular-season juggernaut, but the talent level of their starting five is so high that it might not matter. Their top six is arguably the best in the league. They have no weaknesses, and they have the potential to be top five of the league in both defensive and offensive ratings. When they are fully healthy and available, this team will be extremely difficult to beat.
Winning 55 games or more is a lot for any team, including this Boston team. One injury and extended absence for Porzingis could easily push them to this under, as they seriously lack frontcourt depth to start the season.
However, they will presumably want to get the No. 1 seed to have home-court advantage against the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs. So, they should push for regular season wins. And if this group plays with effort, discipline, and intensity all season, they might sniff the 60-win mark.
Brooklyn Nets – 37.5 wins – OVER
The Nets were underwhelming after trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant mid-season last year. They were 13-15 after the trade deadline with the 23rd-best offense and 15th-best defense. So, this line is understandable. However, this roster is more talented than those numbers indicate.
There is a huge difference between a team consisting of players acquired mid-season and one that had a training camp together. Even if the team technically has the same players. The Nets now have the benefit of continuity, better-identified roles, and a clearer direction.
The Nets have the potential to be a good defensive team. Nic Claxton as the anchor of the defense and Dorian Finney-Smith, Mikal Bridges, Dennis Smith Jr, and Royce O’Neale as perimeter defenders is a solid group. Additionally, if Ben Simmons is ready to play, they could be a scary defense. They can switch, protect the rim, and force turnovers.
An above-average defense, and a slightly below-average offense led by the constantly improving Bridges should make this a .500 team. If they keep this core together, they should hit this over relatively easily.
New York Knicks – 45.5 wins – OVER
The Knicks won 47 games last season and had the point differential of a 49-win team. In one of the most surprising developments of the season, they had the second-ranked offense in the league. And, they are basically bringing the same team back except for replacing Obi Toppin with Donte DiVincenzo.
No part of the Knicks’ success from last year seems unsustainable. They didn’t shoot the lights out or had abnormal shooting percentages. So, there is no reason to think that they can’t have a good offense, even if Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle regress slightly.
The questions remain about the postseason upside for this team. There are probably not enough high-level playmakers, shooters, and defenders to make the Knicks a scary playoff team. However, this is an excellent regular-season team. They are deep, versatile, and coached by someone who will make sure they play hard and disciplined night in and night out. They are a good bet to win the same number of games as last season.
Philadelphia 76ers – 48.5 wins – UNDER
The uncertainty surrounding the James Harden situation in Philadelphia makes this a difficult bet. Looking at their roster as it stands now, this is easily a 50-win team. Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid trio is an excellent three-headed monster in the regular season.
However, whether Harden will wear a Sixers uniform ever again remains a question mark. If he stays, he likely will not be motivated. If he is traded, Philadelphia is not going to get a player as talented as Harden in return, especially since Daryl Morey is prioritizing future cap space.
Depending on how the Harden saga plays out, this Sixers team has some implosion potential. PJ Tucker is a year older and team chemistry is a question mark with the additions of Patrick Beverley, Kelly Oubre Jr. and new head coach Nick Nurse. It’s just easier to see them win 42 games than see them win 55, so it makes more sense to go with the under here.
Toronto Raptors – 36.5 wins – UNDER
This is one of the more fascinating teams in the league. What the Toronto Raptors are trying to accomplish in the 2023-24 is baffling. They let Fred VanVleet walk for free, then doubled down on a mediocre team that missed the playoffs last season.
They replaced VanVleet with the ill-fitting Dennis Schroder. Schroder is a good point guard, but he is another poor shooter for possibly the worst-shooting team in the league. This is going to be one of the worst half-court offenses in the league.
This team fits so poorly that it ends up being less than the sum of its parts. Considering that they didn’t give Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby contract extensions might suggest that they could pivot mid-season and trade them away. Plus, they owe a top-6 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs for that perplexing Jakob Poeltl trade from last season. So, it behooves them to be as bad as possible to keep their draft pick.
It’s not clear whether the Raptors front office feels the same way. If they make the mistake of keeping this team together past the trade deadline, they could easily win more than 36.5 games. However, since that would make no sense organizationally, I’m going to go with the under.
