Following the Central Division over/under predictions, it’s time to look at the reigning champions’ division, the NBA’s Northwest Division. Let’s see what the sportsbooks project for each team in the Northwest and try to make our bets on their win totals.
All the lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Denver Nuggets – 52.5 wins – OVER
The talent level, continuity, and Nikola Jokic are enough to guarantee a home-court advantage for the Denver Nuggets. They are one of the two best teams in the Western Conference. They don’t have to push that hard to get to 50 wins. However, they do have to push a little to hit this over.
They also lost some key depth pieces in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. They will need to rely more on less proven players in the regular season. That could limit their ceiling.
However, the fit of their starting five is so strong that they will walk into a top-five offense by default. That should set their floor high enough, so it’s hard to see them winning less than 50 games. And if that’s the case, you have to go with the over.
Minnesota Timberwolves – 44.5 wins – OVER
Following the Rudy Gobert trade that the Minnesota Timberwolves went all in for, the expectations were sky-high for the team. At the bare minimum, they were supposed to be a great regular-season team. That never came to fruition, and after a disastrous 2022-23 season, the Timberwolves decided to run it back for another year.
Despite an underwhelming 42-40 record last season, this is still a talented team, especially with their starting five. They fit better since they added Mike Conley at last year’s trade deadline. Conley-Anthony Edwards–Jaden McDaniels–Karl-Anthony Towns-Gobert is a playoff-level starting five.
The biggest concern here is the decline of Gobert. If he doesn’t return to his Utah Jazz days, this team will again disappoint. However, if he is back to his Defensive Player of the Year self, this team can be a dominant defense.
There is a chance that things may go south with this team. They are not the most disciplined or the highest-effort team in the league. They consistently lose games they are supposed to win. So, I’m not feeling great about this, but this team’s sheer talent should be over 45 wins, given better health than last season.
Oklahoma City Thunder – 44.5 wins – OVER
This team already had the point differential of a 43-win team last season despite finishing 40-42. They added Chet Holmgren and another year of experience, so they should easily get this over, right?
It may not be that simple.
The Western Conference is loaded. 11 teams have playoff-caliber rosters. Wins will be hard to come by, including for the Thunder, who still have a lot of young and inexperienced players. They still don’t have much frontcourt depth, and depending on how much and how well Holmgren plays, it could be a real weakness. This could cap their defensive upside.
But they have an excellent coach in Mark Daigneault and a surefire superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their starting five of him, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, and Holmgren, is solid. With Giddey and Williams slated to take another step forward, this team has too much talent to pick the under. Don’t expect a 50-win team, but mid-to-high 40s is in the cards.
Portland Trail Blazers – 28.5 wins – UNDER
The uncertainty surrounding the Portland Trail Blazers makes this almost impossible to predict. When you look at their roster as things stand now, this should be an over. Malcolm Brogdon, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, and Robert Williams III are good, proven NBA players. However, a big question is how many will play in a Portland uniform past this trade deadline.
The Blazers are starting a rebuild. Their priority will be the development of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. They presumably prefer to maximize their lottery odds this season over winning games. This will mean more trades and veterans getting shut down late in the season.
Almost every team in the West except for the San Antonio Spurs will try to be competitive. Someone must be at the bottom of the barrel. Where the franchise currently is, the Blazers might be that team.
Utah Jazz – 35.5 wins – OVER
This is also a difficult one. The Utah Jazz won 37 games last season on the back of a strong start, but that is a misleading number since that team is no longer there. They traded away Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley at the trade deadline and went 10-17 to finish the season.
Their offense was dreadful after the trade, and that may still be the case since they don’t have a true point guard except for rookie Keyonte George. They selected three rookies in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft, and they will want to give them minutes even if they are not ready to contribute. This should limit their ceiling.
However, this team still has enough talent and coaching to win more than 35 games. Will Hardy is an excellent coach, and Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler can take steps forward to anchor the offense and defense, respectively. They may have just enough to be respectable on both ends of the floor.
It’s hard to feel good about it, but a high 30s in the win column seems more fitting than a low 30s for a team with this much depth and talent.
