We are three weeks away from the start of the 2023-24 NBA regular season. That means it’s time to look ahead and make our predictions for the season.
One of the best ways to preview the upcoming season is to look at it from an over/under perspective. Sportsbooks come up with their win total lines for each team and it’s a worthwhile exercise to make educated guesses on whether they will go over or under that line. This helps us get a better understanding of the big picture and the league hierarchy.
Central Division is a good place to start since it has a little bit of everything. They have a championship contender in the Milwaukee Bucks, a young but scary playoff team that has higher aspirations in the Cleveland Cavaliers, an exciting, up-and-coming team in the Indiana Pacers, a solidly mediocre team in the Chicago Bulls, and a team desperately trying to take a step forward from the bottom of the league in the Detroit Pistons. It is basically a microcosm of the entire NBA.
Let’s take a look at what the win expectations for each Central Division team are and what to expect from them. All the lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
2023-24 NBA Central Division Over/Under Win Predictions
Chicago Bulls – 37.5 wins – OVER
The Bulls had a net rating of +1.3 last season, good for a 44-win pace. They ended up winning fewer than expected games but still ended up with a 40-42 record. They had a surprisingly solid defense despite not having elite defensive personnel.
Considering that they pretty much brought the same team back, the only way for them to be worse than last season would be because of injuries. Other than the unfortunate Lonzo Ball situation, none of their key players missed significant time last season. If that were different this season, there could be a regression.
However, this team has established that they are better than a 37-win team. Patrick Williams and Zach Lavine should be even better this season. Plus, they want to be competitive and chase the play-in, which should catapult them over 37.5 wins.
Cleveland Cavaliers – 50.5 wins – OVER
This is one of the best bets in the entire league. The Cavs won 51 games last season, but they had the point differential of a 55-win team. They had the top-ranked defense, and 7th-best offense in the league. This team was a regular-season juggernaut.
And they only got better this summer.
The core four; Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen are on the right side of the age curve and should all be better next season. They will have something to prove after the disappointing first-round exit in the playoffs.
They also added two key pieces in Max Strus and Georges Niang to address their shooting woes. Improved spacing, continuity, and motivation should help them compete for the top seed in the Central Division and the Eastern Conference. It’s very hard to see them win less than 50 games barring major injuries.
Detroit Pistons – 28.5 wins – UNDER
Yes, the Detroit Pistons will be better this season. They added solid veterans like Monte Morris and Joe Harris and kept their best player, Bojan Bogdanovic. Cade Cunningham will be healthier and play more games this season. They hired an excellent coach in Monty Williams.
However, this team was horrendous last season. They had a 17-65 record with a -8.6 point differential. They would have to win 12 more games this season to hit this over. That is a tall order, especially for a team that still has plenty of young, inexperienced players who they need to develop.
Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson have a lot of upside but they are currently not ready to contribute to winning basketball. James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley will play significant minutes on this team so that the team can evaluate what they have in them.
It will be more of a developmental season in Detroit. Even though they should win more games this season, a team that plays this many inexperienced players is likely not going to be competitive. And if they aren’t competitive, it makes more sense to increase their lottery odds by winning 25 games rather than 35.
Indiana Pacers – 38.5 wins – OVER
This is a well-set line and it’s arguably the hardest one to predict in this division. The Indiana Pacers were 28-28 with Tyrese Haliburton in the lineup last season before they pulled the plug and tanked before finishing 35-47. Now they are deeper and more experienced with the additions of Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin.
It’s likely that Buddy Hield and TJ McConnell will get traded at some point in the season. Losing these veterans could cost them a few wins. But this team has plenty of talent, a budding superstar in Haliburton, and a great coach in Rick Carlisle.
Haliburton could get this team to an above-average offense by himself, and Myles Turner could make them a respectable defense by himself. That probably is closer to a .500 team than a 35-win team, but it’s certainly close and things could change depending on their priorities.
Milwaukee Bucks – 54.5 wins – UNDER
A team that won 58 games last season just added a top-10 level player in Damian Lillard, so they should easily go over 54.5, right? Not quite.
They could certainly be dominant in the regular season and win 60 games. However, this team may be better suited for the playoffs than the regular season. They are top-heavy and old. Every single starter on the team except for Giannis Antetokounmpo is over 30 years old. Their depth is a question mark.
Therefore, it behooves them to limit regular season minutes for Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Lillard to keep them fresh for the postseason.
Plus, the coach that made them regular-season juggernauts for the past five seasons is gone. There could be growing pains with their rookie head coach Adrian Griffin. As hard as it is to pick against the incredible Antetokounmpo-Lillard duo, it makes more sense for them to ease into things. Therefore, they are able to peak closer to the playoffs.
It should be an interesting year in the Central Division.
